Bookmaking - the problem where prices drift up :0(

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Safeway
Posts: 75
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:00 pm

Hi All - hope somebody can help.

For more than a year I have been reasonably successful using the Bet Angel 'Bookmaking' feature. I lay all of the runners at the lower back price, maybe play with a couple here and there but often I get a green book (or somewhere near.) Great. You will not be surprised to hear that my problem are those runners where the prices rise after I have submitted my bets, having not got them matched at first attempt.

I am pretty inexperienced with automation and before I look closer at this, can anybody advise me if it is possible using basic automation / spreadsheets etc to use some sort of automation which will place a new lay bet a a slightly higher price where the price of a runner drifts upwards?

As an example, let's say there are 10 runners in a race. I manually using the Bookmaking feature successfully match lay bets at the lower back price on all but one of them. The one where I have not matched a lay bet drifts badly. Let's say I lay at 5.8......without noticing it drifts to 6.0, 6.2, 6.4 etc etc.

Can automation / spreadsheets help me? Once I manually lay the book, can some feature place a second lay bet at one or even two ticks higher price IF the original back price has risen?

I have no interest in any automation that makes a profit for me when I'm not at a screen. I just wonder if there's something that can match 'drifters' before they drift too far? It's too much to keep my eyes on all of 'em.

Thanks everyone :0)
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

You first need to define what a drift is, it could be for example when the current price of the selection is x ticks higher than y seconds ago, and this sets a signal for that selection when the condition is met, which triggers a rule that cancels the unmatched bet and one that places fill or kill bets at the current back price until one of them gets matched.Stake by book%.
sionascaig
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Safeway wrote:
Sat Mar 18, 2023 8:03 pm

It's too much to keep my eyes on all of 'em.

Thanks everyone :0)
And to help to decide what constitutes a "drift" it might be worthwhile setting up some basic automation that sends an "alert" to the watch list when the price moves against you, say conditional on you having a unmatched bet against that runner.

A lot easier to see / manage.
Safeway
Posts: 75
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:00 pm

Thanks for your help guys.....I understand exactly what you are saying.

As far as what constitutes a 'drift'.....if the bookmaking tool has decided we're laying a runner at say 5.4 (this being the best available price to backers in the blue area to the left,) I would be upset if this (blue) price rose to 5.5 and would want to lay at this price. I may still be making a profit across the book but avoiding closing out at a loss because it's drifted out to 6.4 without me noticing!

I like the idea of the alert in the watchlist and I could possibly correct manually but how do I do this? What steps 1,2,3 etc do I need to do to have this? That's how clueless I am!

Thanks again everybody.
sionascaig
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Set up some automation that:

Rule 1. Captures Back Price in a Stored Value, IF there is an unmatched bet on that selection (use Set / Modify SV rule on EVERY selection, with a condition on Unmatched bets on current selection > 0)

Rule 2. Capture Current Back Price in a Stored Value every refresh for all selections

Rule 3. Alert, display warning in watch list, with a condition that Current Back Price > your Stored Value Back Price in Rule 1 (remember to enable alerts on the watchlist so you can see them)

That's the basics & it assumes the automation will be running before you submit bets... There will no doubt be a fair bit of tinkering required to get it to behave just as you expect.

Will need something a bit more complicated if you also want to track any new bets submitted to market due to price movements but a good place to start.

As Trader724 says you could also use this approach to cancel unmatched bets in the market (via automation) if Alert triggers & resubmit if price moves.

edit - if you use "shared" stored values then could also display the initial price you entered the market at on the ladder using the "marker" feature in "ladder settings" , say as a coloured cell which might help you visualise drift from market entry.
deestar
Posts: 178
Joined: Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:17 pm

Just to throw a curve ball at you. You mention trying to chase a drifter to balance your book before it drifts too far. That to me says somewhere else in your book you are being too generous with your initial lay prices. i.e. your not allowing enough margin for prices to shorten. If something is drifting something else is shortening that you laid too early.
Safeway
Posts: 75
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:00 pm

Thanks to everyone who is helping me here. I have been short of time and when I have had the time to open Bet Angel have carried on with my old totally manual methods. All OK, I'm just certain that I can be more effective if I could include some sort of 'automotive' assistance to kill those movers before they spoil things.

I don't think the 'Dutching' and 'Bookmaking' functions are the most popular thing on Bet Angel. Probably not dynamic enough for most people. The reason I keep coming back to them is that I don't have to anticipate a price change up or down as I would if I were trading the odds of single runners. Yes I've tried trading it and yes, it drove me absolutely mad :o

With dutching or bookmaking the whole field, when I make my bets I am hoping nothing changes in contrast to the trader who may be laying low and hoping for a drift upwards to green up. Basically, I want the status quo, not a change!

In reply to deestar's 'curveball'.....if I can't successfully trade the odds because I haven't got a clue which way the price should be going, how can I perfect my timing when laying the field? I can't. Having said that I do now vary my approach dependent on the type of race, distance and whether there is or there is not a strong favourite. Sometimes this helps me and sometimes I get it wrong but varying the method has helped me. I would never have any strong feeling on any individual runner but I may divide the field into a couple of groups - those which are fancied ie. odds likely to shorten and the 'outsiders' where the Betfair punters will totally underestimate their chance of winning. Not my problem.....its not who wins the race, its who do they think will or won't!

Sionascaig - thanks........I'm going to try to follow your suggestions over the Easter weekend. I am sure I will need to refer back in the likely situation that I get stuck :lol:
Safeway
Posts: 75
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:00 pm

Something that has always confused me :?:

Why is it that on Betfair the 'overound' for backers is almost always much smaller than the 'bookmaker's profit' for layers?

For example, in a liquid horse race the book might be say 99% (1%) on the back side but say 102% (2%) on the lay side.

One of those things that's bugged me but I've never got to an answer!

Any input appreciated :)

Have a great day all!
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

Safeway wrote:
Thu Apr 20, 2023 5:56 am
Something that has always confused me :?:

Why is it that on Betfair the 'overound' for backers is almost always much smaller than the 'bookmaker's profit' for layers?

For example, in a liquid horse race the book might be say 99% (1%) on the back side but say 102% (2%) on the lay side.

One of those things that's bugged me but I've never got to an answer!

Any input appreciated :)

Have a great day all!
Imagine "ideal" 5 runners race where ltp for each runner is 5.0 and there are no orders on back or lay side for this particular price (cause they were fully matched), lowest back orders for each runner sit on 5.1 and highest lays sit on 4.9.

Let's calc!

let's calc for ltp 100/5.0+100/5.0+100/5.0+100/5.0+100/5.0 = 100
let's calc for back 100/5.1+100/5.1+100/5.1+100/5.1+100/5.1 =~98
and finally let's calc for lay 100/4.9+100/4.9+100/4.9+100/4.9+100/4.9 =~102
Safeway
Posts: 75
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:00 pm

Thanks but I know how the maths work.

I'm not sure what 'ltp' is but your example shows a profit of 2% for the backer and 2% for the layer.

My point is that this doesn't happen............more is made from laying than backing (if you can get them all matched!!

Just don't know why this is :?:
sionascaig
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

In case you missed it - another solution from Dallas...

viewtopic.php?f=17&t=27325
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
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Location: UK

Safeway wrote:
Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:02 pm
Thanks but I know how the maths work.

I'm not sure what 'ltp' is but your example shows a profit of 2% for the backer and 2% for the layer.

My point is that this doesn't happen............more is made from laying than backing (if you can get them all matched!!

Just don't know why this is :?:
If you're backing the field you need an overround of <100%. Lay the field and you need >100%. So 99% back and 101% lay is the same margin, roughly.

I started off trading by laying the field on the Betfair website. It was profitable overall but as you can imagine it was very much up and down with drifters and expensive reduction factors occasionally. I eventually abandoned it for swing trading.

From what I remember, scalpable markets where the prices remain stable were most suitable for the strategy.
Safeway
Posts: 75
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:00 pm

Yes Derek, thanks. I know all of that!

Swing trading is impossible for me. I'm just not suitable for it :lol:
If I back or lay the field I am 'betting' on things not changing and that's why I like it. If I swing trade I have to have a strong feeling on which way a price will move in the short term and like most of us I ain't got a clue!

What interests me is why backing the field is LESS profitable than laying it. You described a scenario where it's evens ie. 99% back and 101% lay. Well its more likely to be (say) 99% back and 101.4% lay or (say) 99.4% back and 100.9% lay. Just look at any of the liquid horse markets shortly before the off. LAYING THE FIELD IS MORE PROFITABLE THAN BACKING IT. WHY IS THAT????? I don't know the reason :?:

Whilst I conclude for myself that laying the field is more profitable than backing it, I also conclude that for what I am doing there is much less risk in backing the field. Generally it is easier to get matches pre race and if the race starts before all bets are matched it is easier to make a little profit or break even rather than have a life changing meltdown :o
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Safeway wrote:
Sat Apr 22, 2023 8:40 am
Yes Derek, thanks. I know all of that!

Swing trading is impossible for me. I'm just not suitable for it :lol:
If I back or lay the field I am 'betting' on things not changing and that's why I like it. If I swing trade I have to have a strong feeling on which way a price will move in the short term and like most of us I ain't got a clue!

What interests me is why backing the field is LESS profitable than laying it. You described a scenario where it's evens ie. 99% back and 101% lay. Well its more likely to be (say) 99% back and 101.4% lay or (say) 99.4% back and 100.9% lay. Just look at any of the liquid horse markets shortly before the off. LAYING THE FIELD IS MORE PROFITABLE THAN BACKING IT. WHY IS THAT????? I don't know the reason :?:

Whilst I conclude for myself that laying the field is more profitable than backing it, I also conclude that for what I am doing there is much less risk in backing the field. Generally it is easier to get matches pre race and if the race starts before all bets are matched it is easier to make a little profit or break even rather than have a life changing meltdown :o
In all honesty I've never tried backing the field, except for antepost races where it looked appealing. If the lay overround is 102% and the back overround is 99% I would expect there's more laying than backing going on (due to a more competitive book), but perhaps there are a lot of punters around who are only interested in backing, hence the pressure on one side of the book.
Anbell
Posts: 2004
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Safeway wrote:
Sat Apr 22, 2023 8:40 am
Whilst I conclude for myself that laying the field is more profitable than backing it, I also conclude that for what I am doing there is much less risk in backing the field.
Maybe you just explained why the market is not perfectly balanced (if it is indeed so)
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