Horse Race and Football Data Sources and how to analyse them

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GM_punk
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:34 pm

Hello to everyone in the forum. I look forward to get to know you and learn as much as I can.

So far I have done 400+ markets on BF with -ve results, despite that i'm on Premium charge which sucks. My problem so far is that I traded randomly and also placed trades that in play treated as bets, no fundamental analysing of markets to try to find patterns and bad money management.


I have been very successful with scalping pre-race but because the stakes I use are small ( compared to the bets I lost and the losses I chased) I'm in the red. classical case of prospect theory fallacy. I'm at a very early stage that I want to find sources of race data, and find ways to analyse them to identify patterns.


My mission is to try to crack this trading thing I keep on reading about.
I gave myself 6 Months, with monthly evaluations of progress. ( e'g. to be Consistent)

The long term goal is to see if I have what it takes to make a living as a full time trader.

from my research so far I feel manual scalping is the way to go at this point in time, but the information overload is overwhelming as to be expected from a newbie I guess.

Any advice and/ or resources on where to find data and how to analyse them it'll be greatly appreciated.
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Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

GM_punk wrote:
Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:01 pm
Hello to everyone in the forum. I look forward to get to know you and learn as much as I can.

So far I have done 400+ markets on BF with -ve results, despite that i'm on Premium charge which sucks. My problem so far is that I traded randomly and also placed trades that in play treated as bets, no fundamental analysing of markets to try to find patterns and bad money management.


I have been very successful with scalping pre-race but because the stakes I use are small ( compared to the bets I lost and the losses I chased) I'm in the red. classical case of prospect theory fallacy. I'm at a very early stage that I want to find sources of race data, and find ways to analyse them to identify patterns.


My mission is to try to crack this trading thing I keep on reading about.
I gave myself 6 Months, with monthly evaluations of progress. ( e'g. to be Consistent)

The long term goal is to see if I have what it takes to make a living as a full time trader.

from my research so far I feel manual scalping is the way to go at this point in time, but the information overload is overwhelming as to be expected from a newbie I guess.

Any advice and/ or resources on where to find data and how to analyse them it'll be greatly appreciated.
How can you be on premium charge if you're in the negative?
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GM_punk
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:34 pm

Hello Derek I was consistently Green up to the point that I placed few bets with bad stakes etc Did most beginner mistakes in one short spell and that destroyed my hard work for 400 markets. was doing pr- game scalps and at the end started going in play, to trade goals markets with huge latency and without any stats of my own. was using "tippsters". That didn't work for me.

now I want to get more into the analysis of things to have a better idea how the odds are created. But how do I do that???


I've asked BF to send me a copy of lifetime account to try to analyse what happened and learn.

my numbers so far so no one thinks I'm BSing

Lifetime summary Applies across 453 Exchange markets
Gross profit & loss £-258.35

Commission Other charges Premium Charges Total charges (0%) Maximum possible premium charge

£83.86 +£0 +£19.07 =£102.93 £0
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GM_punk
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:34 pm

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Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

GM_punk wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:52 am
Hello Derek I was consistently Green up to the point that I placed few bets with bad stakes etc Did most beginner mistakes in one short spell and that destroyed my hard work for 400 markets. was doing pr- game scalps and at the end started going in play, to trade goals markets with huge latency and without any stats of my own. was using "tippsters". That didn't work for me.

now I want to get more into the analysis of things to have a better idea how the odds are created. But how do I do that???


I've asked BF to send me a copy of lifetime account to try to analyse what happened and learn.

my numbers so far so no one thinks I'm BSing

Lifetime summary Applies across 453 Exchange markets
Gross profit & loss £-258.35

Commission Other charges Premium Charges Total charges (0%) Maximum possible premium charge

£83.86 +£0 +£19.07 =£102.93 £0
Hi GM_Punk, welcome to the forum. Have you actually had PC deducted from your account or is that £19 taken out of your PC allowance? You don't pay the first £1000 of potential charges.

If you have a PC allowance it will be in the box 'Your remaining allowance is' underneath 'Maximum possible premium charge'.

As for getting back to winning, you'll find plenty of advice in the football section if that's your sport, but you might consider trying to get back to what you were doing when you were profitable. You'll also find valuable information in the psychology section as well videos in the BA Academy.
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

GM_punk wrote:
Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:01 pm
Hello to everyone in the forum. I look forward to get to know you and learn as much as I can.
Welcome punk, scalping is a good intro into trading.
GM_punk wrote:
Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:01 pm
Any advice and/ or resources on where to find data and how to analyse them it'll be greatly appreciated.
Probably better to open a new thread if you're looking for something specific.
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GM_punk
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:34 pm

Hi Derek27, you're spot on.
it's the amount deducted from the £1000 allowance but it's still charged
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GM_punk
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:34 pm

Hi Kai,

Thank you for the advice will copy in new thread.
User avatar
GM_punk
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:34 pm

Hello to everyone in the forum. Already had a nice welcome from Derek27 and Kai.

I look forward to get to know you and learn as much as I can.

So far I have done 400+ markets on BF with -ve results, despite that i'm on Premium charge which sucks. My problem so far is that I traded randomly and also placed trades that in play treated as bets, no fundamental analysing of markets to try to find patterns and bad money management.


I have been very successful with scalping pre-race but because the stakes I use are small ( compared to the bets I lost and the losses I chased) I'm in the red. classical case of prospect theory fallacy. I'm at a very early stage that I want to find sources of race data, and find ways to analyse them to identify patterns.


My mission is to try to crack this trading thing I keep on reading about.
I gave myself 6 Months, with monthly evaluations of progress. ( e'g. to be Consistent)

The long term goal is to see if I have what it takes to make a living as a full time trader.

from my research so far I feel manual scalping is the way to go at this point in time, but the information overload is overwhelming as to be expected from a newbie I guess.

Any advice and/ or resources on where to find data and ways to analyse them it'll be greatly appreciated.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

GM_punk wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:18 am
Hi Derek27, you're spot on.
it's the amount deducted from the £1000 allowance but it's still charged
I suppose you're right. We usually say you don't pay the first £1000 PC but you're really paying it with your complimentary luncheon vouchers, if you're old enough to remember them. :)

When I was trading to pretty small stakes I thought that allowance would last years but it's quite amazing how quickly it can get eaten up!
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

6 months is not a lot of time really, you would need to compress all of the typical beginner mistakes into that period and instantly learn from them too, not to mention collect a lot of ladder time as well, all the while avoiding any dead ends and bad ideas and usual pitfalls etc.

It's enough time to find an edge but probably not enough to experience firsthand how all of sorts of different cognitive biases affect your decision-making and actively working through that.

If you feel you're a natural it can be done without active mentoring but it's very difficult, the time pressure of 6 months doesn't help either.
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GM_punk
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:34 pm

I think they still exist Derek27,
Yes, BF is making load of money!!
I remember that they use to give us bonus bonds to buy anything we want which was similar to the Luncheon Voucher you mentioned.
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Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

I've merged the posts from the 'Scalping' thread into this to keep the conversation in one place
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

GM_punk wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:56 pm
Yes, BF is making load of money!!
They need to with a wage bill of just over £42m.
2018 profits were iro £12.5m, so the whole setup only made about as much as one of their biggest customers. And that's all before the Covid downturn so hardly a cash cow.

..I didn't realise that Betfair 100% owned TimeForm, and if anyone doubts their customer account secuity I see they own a slice of Featurespace too!
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Can there be more than one?
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