Today's Football

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Morbius
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Trader Pat wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 10:31 pm
This market is yet another great example of why trading beats betting every time :)

It should really be a no brainer in the majority of cases unless of course you do actually have no brain :D

Trading just gives greater options and is more efficient. It also creates situations where pre event and in play markets can be linked to exploit pricing inefficiencies pre off.

However one caveat to that Pat is if you're very adept at spotting value and end up trading your EV away on the cheap. Even then trading reduces volatility through the trading of volatility but a very sharp punter will outstrip a bad or mediocre trader.

I laid City today pre off because their price looked wrong but I still traded out at one all. I'm always more confident if I know the price is out like I felt it was for Leeds/Spurs.... Arsenal/Villarreal
Last edited by Morbius on Sat May 08, 2021 10:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Morbius wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 10:48 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 10:31 pm
This market is yet another great example of why trading beats betting every time :)
However one caveat to that Pat is if you're very adept at spotting value and end up trading your EV away on the cheap. Even then trading reduces volatility through the trading of volatility.

I laid City today pre off because their price looked wrong but I still traded out at one all I'm always more confident if I know the price is out.
That's a whole other skillset but if you've got that club in your bag too then happy days :D

Laying City today was a good call; familiarity, contempt and all that ;)
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Morbius
Posts: 492
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Trader Pat wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 10:54 pm
Morbius wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 10:48 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 10:31 pm
This market is yet another great example of why trading beats betting every time :)
However one caveat to that Pat is if you're very adept at spotting value and end up trading your EV away on the cheap. Even then trading reduces volatility through the trading of volatility.

I laid City today pre off because their price looked wrong but I still traded out at one all I'm always more confident if I know the price is out.
That's a whole other skillset but if you've got that club in your bag too then happy days :D

Laying City today was a good call; familiarity, contempt and all that ;)

There's a lag with markets and league position often dictates lines. Like today... No way city should have been that price. Chelsea are clearly at their level now and with no crowd advantage and Chelsea driving for top 4 that price was off by around 10% as I mentioned pre-off.

In close run contests and all EPL are then often the manager makes the difference akin to a jockey in horseracing. Take Leeds today... Bielsa vs Mason.... No contest. Leeds are a fighting team while spurs are not showing the fight for big games. Another bad price. The markets also over react to short term results when all that is most of the time is short term variance
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Morbius
Posts: 492
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Trader Pat wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 10:54 pm
Morbius wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 10:48 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 10:31 pm
This market is yet another great example of why trading beats betting every time :)
However one caveat to that Pat is if you're very adept at spotting value and end up trading your EV away on the cheap. Even then trading reduces volatility through the trading of volatility.

I laid City today pre off because their price looked wrong but I still traded out at one all I'm always more confident if I know the price is out.
That's a whole other skillset but if you've got that club in your bag too then happy days :D

Laying City today was a good call; familiarity, contempt and all that ;)

I've a lot to learn about sports trading Pat but I look for other ways to get the job done if I can. I should have laid the draw in City vs Chelsea late on and didn't as the game flow screamed goal.... Still pissed about it
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Morbius wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 11:02 pm
The markets also over react to short term results when all that is most of the time is short term variance
Long may it continue :)
Morbius wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 11:07 pm
I've a lot to learn about sports trading Pat but I look for other ways to get the job done if I can. I should have laid the draw in City vs Chelsea late on and didn't as the game flow screamed goal.... Still pissed about it
Can't win them all but you seem to be approaching it from a logical point of view so should be up over the long run
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Morbius
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Trader Pat wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 11:12 pm
Morbius wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 11:02 pm
The markets also over react to short term results when all that is most of the time is short term variance
Long may it continue :)
Morbius wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 11:07 pm
I've a lot to learn about sports trading Pat but I look for other ways to get the job done if I can. I should have laid the draw in City vs Chelsea late on and didn't as the game flow screamed goal.... Still pissed about it
Can't win them all but you seem to be approaching it from a logical point of view so should be up over the long run

Ive done alright out of it Pat but poker was always my main income but want a new direction. I've learnt some painful lessons down the years. Like the time I was going to back Amir Khan when he fought Barrera for the world title in 2009. I was convinced Khan wouldn't lose this fight and MAB was long in the tooth and ring rusty and wouldn't cope with Khan's style.

That same day I was at my dentists and was reading Barry Mcguigans column in one of the rags and he went into a long description of how Khan couldn't win this fight. So not only didn't I back him I lumped on Barrera and I mean LUMPED.

Mcguigan was doing the commentary as well and after round 2 he said the thought Barrera was ring rusty and struggling to cope with Khans style. I won't repeat what came out of my mouth. Never trusted an experts opinion pre event since but they are good for in play.... You live and learn don't you
Trader Pat
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Morbius wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 11:24 pm
Mcguigan was doing the commentary as well and after round 2 he said the thought Barrera was ring rusty and struggling to cope with Khans style. I won't repeat what came out of my mouth. Never trusted an experts opinion pre event since but they are good for in play.... You live and learn don't you
:lol:

Always ignore the 'experts'
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Morbius
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Trader Pat wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 11:28 pm
Morbius wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 11:24 pm
Mcguigan was doing the commentary as well and after round 2 he said the thought Barrera was ring rusty and struggling to cope with Khans style. I won't repeat what came out of my mouth. Never trusted an experts opinion pre event since but they are good for in play.... You live and learn don't you
:lol:

Always ignore the 'experts'

I became a miserable bastard that very same day :D

Catch you later fella
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Morbius
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So Chelsea beat City twice in a week without even being at home and are clearly at City's level and yet a best priced 9/5 is on offer for Chelsea to win the CL... 9/5 for an Even Money chance at worst and possible 4/5
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Morbius
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Morbius wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 6:27 pm
Why risk looking stupid like that. Keepers expect takers to go down the middle these days. Any top class player should be able to hit the corner with pace and precision. A keeper has little chance against pace and precision and 300k per week footballers should be able to do that

Just been reading Micah Richards comments on the pen and he's said Aguero was always trying panenkas in training and never scored them. Not that it matters for the title but it sure as hell matters for the CL final. Guardiola was always going to defend him but that was a shocker and now Chelsea have the psychological edge
Trader Pat
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Strong line up by Utd today so expect everyone to be rested for Tuesday.

Leicester's price already on the move... wonder how low it will get
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Morbius
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Morbius wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 5:34 pm
Kai wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 5:19 pm
Morbius wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 4:38 pm


I hate to quote myself but here I was on April 16th :D
Actually might as well give me a name for the next Spurs manager and I'll have a look at the market :)

It has been a while since I played around with those, but I remember them fondly!

It's hard to call because their new "status" in their new stadium and ESL contenders could see them land a big name. Allegri has been out of work for a while and may fancy a crack at the Prem or they could go for a young gun like OGS/Arteta/Lampard type. Who knows with them.... Remember jacques santini 🙄

Why don't I indulge in next manager markets... Allegri now favourite for the Arsenal job.... Too fricking late now Carl :x
Archery1969
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Location: Newport

Wish me luck. :)
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firlandsfarm
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Archery1969 wrote:
Sun May 09, 2021 10:46 pm
Wish me luck. :)
Hmmmm, do I get a sense of back-fitting?! :o
Archery1969
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon May 10, 2021 10:15 am
Archery1969 wrote:
Sun May 09, 2021 10:46 pm
Wish me luck. :)
Hmmmm, do I get a sense of back-fitting?! :o
Backfitting ?

I just took the average number of goals for each leage and best time to enter the market.
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