Today's Football

[Trader Pat]

Strong line up by Utd today so expect everyone to be rested for Tuesday.

Leicester's price already on the move... wonder how low it will get

That's answered that!

[Kai]

Strong line up by Utd today so expect everyone to be rested for Tuesday.

Leicester's price already on the move... wonder how low it will get

That's answered that!

Game of Throws

They really had to make sure they throw away those 3 points Pat, just to shaft Liverpool. Surprised they didn't put Ole in the lineup as well ffs

[Trader Pat]

Game of Throws

They really had to make sure they throw away those 3 points Pat, just to shaft Liverpool. Surprised they didn't put Ole in the lineup as well ffs

I know he had to rest players but if Liverpool was the middle game of 3 in 5 days he wouldn't have rested that many.

4 wins a must now and then hope Leicester lose one of their remaining two, or less likely Chelsea don't get the 6 points they need from their remaining three games. Goal difference could still play a part to.

Keep the faith Kai!

[Morbius]

Game of Throws

They really had to make sure they throw away those 3 points Pat, just to shaft Liverpool. Surprised they didn't put Ole in the lineup as well ffs

I know he had to rest players but if Liverpool was the middle game of 3 in 5 days he wouldn't have rested that many.

4 wins a must now and then hope Leicester lose one of their remaining two, or less likely Chelsea don't get the 6 points they need from their remaining three games. Goal difference could still play a part to.

Keep the faith Kai!

All part of why they weren't 2.12 Pat to make top 4...just hope you took my advice

[Kai]

Game of Throws

They really had to make sure they throw away those 3 points Pat, just to shaft Liverpool. Surprised they didn't put Ole in the lineup as well ffs

I know he had to rest players but if Liverpool was the middle game of 3 in 5 days he wouldn't have rested that many.

4 wins a must now and then hope Leicester lose one of their remaining two, or less likely Chelsea don't get the 6 points they need from their remaining three games. Goal difference could still play a part to.

Keep the faith Kai!

All part of why they weren't 2.12 Pat to make top 4...just hope you took my advice

I take it you're enjoying yourself then Carl, working out various pre-off footy angles, since it probably feels very familiar

Granted it can be fun finding daft prices in the earlier stages of markets and it can feel a bit satisfying feeling like you're one or two steps in front of the market, but it's a shame that besides fixture-congested periods and cup matches etc there aren't too many huge opportunities on a regular basis. Some relatively small margins mostly, altho teamnews potential can be pretty efficient.

But can quickly get tiring too and needs some proper effort, working out your positions at the right times and covering all the liabilities plus some babysitting of prices and positions etc and far too much time to potentially over-think your positions/angles as well ... and I guess it's a cool way of participating in the market and ideally it should be "set and forget" if you can manage that but ye it's hard to compare all the effort with just showing up at a market and having markets line up in an orderly fashion lmao, which would be actual day trading

Ye, maybe would be nice to follow other leagues and stuff and things but very hard if you have zero interest in it.

[Trader Pat]

All part of why they weren't 2.12 Pat to make top 4...just hope you took my advice

I did, you're good at this!

[Kai]

All part of why they weren't 2.12 Pat to make top 4...just hope you took my advice

I did, you're good at this!

First dibs on his football trading course! Expecting a big discount too, 100% off.

[Trader Pat]

All part of why they weren't 2.12 Pat to make top 4...just hope you took my advice

I did, you're good at this!

First dibs on his football trading course! Expecting a big discount too, 100% off.

Might be a book in the pipeline too!

[Morbius]

All part of why they weren't 2.12 Pat to make top 4...just hope you took my advice

I did, you're good at this!

First dibs on his football trading course! Expecting a big discount too, 100% off.

I wouldn't even know how to articulate what's in my head but if I stick my head on the block in a post then I'm strong with that opinion but a lot of it is just experience over years of betting and following football. I used to be an odds compiler years ago so that helps but really nothing compares to your own analysis.

I don't know anything that I couldn't put into a post but the people like yourself and Pat already know the game and helped me think more like a trader and less like a bettor. Just a basic odds compilation of Fulham vs Burnley told me the odds were way off. A little snippet of data to take away.... There are only around 65-70m of effective game time on any 90m period so this is one huge factor for over estimation in the market.

My odds compilation system for example I could put into a post. Many would think it too simplistic but it compares overall results to current form and then adjusts for team news like United vs Leicester last night as United were a huge lay before the game even after the team news came out. Then greenwood's equaliser was a gift from the gods because you could green at 1-1 and then lay them again.

But like I said.. If I know a price is wrong I am more comfortable trading it because of my pure trading inexperience

[Kai]

I did, you're good at this!

First dibs on his football trading course! Expecting a big discount too, 100% off.

Might be a book in the pipeline too!

Indeed! But has to be something original and a fresh take on the old trading game, perhaps a title like "Step into my trading office..."

(Actually that title sounds good, I will make a note of it for future self)

[jamesg46]

I came across a YT video recently & when I got 3:40 + into it I had a feeling it could be Morbius.

https://youtu.be/e1675wf8LG4

[Morbius]

When you told me the price was 2.12 for Liverpool to make the top four Pat I was like

It's all in the projected probabilities of final points totals. Only last night I was listening to five live of United vs Leicester but Stephen Warnock is a crap analyst but even they were still counting Everton and Spurs as top 4 candidates which is ludicrous.

If you sat down and analysed the huge number of LIKELY events that could happen to drive Liverpools price of 2.12 upwards then it was almost like buying money to lay them. All you then decide is how much profit you want to take and that's before the team news came out yesterday and Harry Mcguires leg.

I'm still miffed about not laying the draw in City vs Chelsea with 5m to go

[Trader Pat]

When you told me the price was 2.12 for Liverpool to make the top four Pat I was like

It's all in the projected probabilities of final points totals. Only last night I was listening to five live of United vs Leicester but Stephen Warnock is a crap analyst but even they were still counting Everton and Spurs as top 4 candidates which is ludicrous.

If you sat down and analysed the huge number of LIKELY events that could happen to drive Liverpools price of 2.12 upwards then it was almost like buying money to lay them. All you then decide is how much profit you want to take and that's before the team news came out yesterday and Harry Mcguires leg.

I'm still miffed about not laying the draw in City vs Chelsea with 5m to go

I've still got the straws within clutching distance especially if Chelsea drop points tonight!

[Kai]

I'm still miffed about not laying the draw in City vs Chelsea with 5m to go

That's rough, I'm sure you'll not allow yourself to miss out on such a glorious opportunity next time! Gotta go harder on the next one Carl! Although next time you'll probably lose then Wait, oh noes, did we just describe that infamous FOMO anxiety disorder?! Whoa, that's one of those questions for the ages, or for the sages??? Well I've just gone and confused myself now, I'll need the rest of the afternoon off to clear my head. Enjoy your Wednesday lads.

[Morbius]

I'm still miffed about not laying the draw in City vs Chelsea with 5m to go

That's rough, I'm sure you'll not allow yourself to miss out on such a glorious opportunity next time! Gotta go harder on the next one Carl! Although next time you'll probably lose then Wait, oh noes, did we just describe that infamous FOMO anxiety disorder?! Whoa, that's one of those questions for the ages, or for the sages??? Well I've just gone and confused myself now, I'll need the rest of the afternoon off to clear my head. Enjoy your Wednesday lads.

And before you jump in too hard on Carl's opinion.... Dec 2015..I was in a pub and the topic was the league title race and Leicesters chances and I proclaimed in my best Brian Clough voice.... "take my word young man they'll drop like a stone after Christmas"

It's been long enough now that I should be able to go back in that pub again.