Football Musings

[wearthefoxhat]

Still early days, here are my adjusted scores point of view.

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Premier results looks about right. Couple of teams should of scored more goals.

Premier.png

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Championship results, again about right.

Southampton should have won their game on the stats, so have awarded them an away win for my records.

Championship.png

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[wearthefoxhat]

As the games prepare for Round 6, things are shaping up a little.

The first table is a version of league standings, highlighting home and away performance(s).

The second table is more form performance based and indicates where teams may end up if their form continues in the same way, good & bad.This data is just a simple copy and paste, data sort option from a free website.

The other parts of the sheet drill down on the more predictive elements of each game. ie: Poisson, Elo,Value bets...etc. More league data needed before that becomes useful.

Premier League.png

[firlandsfarm]

Not sure Arsenal have solved their 'striker' problem ... yes the goals are going in but soooo many chances are missing. Bad luck or bad finishing?

[wearthefoxhat]

Not sure Arsenal have solved their 'striker' problem ... yes the goals are going in but soooo many chances are missing. Bad luck or bad finishing?

Reckon their defence seems to be the key at the moment.

If that continues, and they keep creating chances, good/bad finishing, they'll be top soon enough.

xG.png

[firlandsfarm]

Reckon their defence seems to be the key at the moment.

If that continues, and they keep creating chances, good/bad finishing, they'll be top soon enough.


xG.png

Yes, same goals against as Crystal Palace ... never thought I would ever say that!!

And the future looks secure with Gabriel and Saliba both signing new long term contracts.

[Euler]

Currently trying to work out why Palace are not favourites against Everton. Maybe because of the lack of goals. But you would think they are the form team.

[wearthefoxhat]

Currently trying to work out why Palace are not favourites against Everton. Maybe because of the lack of goals. But you would think they are the form team.

Top form team (based on league games), although Everton aren't too bad overall. (not accounting for last nights Bournemouth v Fulham game)

Form Teams.png

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My 3 predictors all align. Form/Value (based on tissue)/Poisson D.

Predictors.png

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Could be the "just played in Europe" and "now have to travel from London again" factor, and as you say, low goals factor too.


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