Today's Football

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
Post Reply
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

MobiusGrey wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:14 am
Tried this last night on the Chelsea game and went relatively smoothly. I think I need to find the right time to create the free bet part though, I feel like I did this too early in the match when the odds on unders was higher, therefore if a goal goes in the odds would increase dramatically incurring a bigger loss. I think possibly the key is creating the free bet part either pre-kickoff or when the odds are a lot lower, therefore 1 goal goes in when you're exposed it's not as risky. I suppose this then links into what to do at this point, close for a loss is my feeling at the moment but will take a little bit of working out with forward testing.
Lower odds move slower, meaning longer exposure times, while the preoff market is more speculative and behaves very differently as there is no time decay yet.

Always have to ask yourself where would the edge come from, it's probably the most overlooked question in trading. Would this trading concept of flipping profit be profitable on its own, or would the edge come from his ladder ability in creating the free bets in the first place, or is he finding big value when laying appropriate matches at the appropriate time etc.
User avatar
MobiusGrey
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:10 pm

Kai wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:23 pm
MobiusGrey wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:14 am
Tried this last night on the Chelsea game and went relatively smoothly. I think I need to find the right time to create the free bet part though, I feel like I did this too early in the match when the odds on unders was higher, therefore if a goal goes in the odds would increase dramatically incurring a bigger loss. I think possibly the key is creating the free bet part either pre-kickoff or when the odds are a lot lower, therefore 1 goal goes in when you're exposed it's not as risky. I suppose this then links into what to do at this point, close for a loss is my feeling at the moment but will take a little bit of working out with forward testing.
Lower odds move slower, meaning longer exposure times, while the preoff market is more speculative and behaves very differently as there is no time decay yet.

Always have to ask yourself where would the edge come from, it's probably the most overlooked question in trading. Would this trading concept of flipping profit be profitable on its own, or would the edge come from his ladder ability in creating the free bets in the first place, or is he finding big value when laying appropriate matches at the appropriate time etc.
This is a very good point, I assumed the edge came from creating the free bet in the first place, once this part is complete you have options as to what to do with that profit, pocket it try to spin it up to more profit by flipping it or break even worst case. From my experience so far I've relied very little on watching the match itself to decide what do once the free bet has been made but I have been a lot more diligent when exposed to a loss when creating the free bet.

You're absolutely right in that I was matched very quickly last night on the Chelsea match but it was like pulling teeth on the Brisbane match this morning when I tried again at much lower odds, although I may have wrongly assumed this was down to lower volumes.

Surely the edge would come in being able to read order flow, if you can create the free bet quicker than someone else you're exposed to a lesser extent and won't suffer as many losses ergo profits will be higher than someone who gets caught more often when a goal goes in and your back bet has just been matched?
User avatar
psychoff
Posts: 91
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 2:52 pm
Contact:

Still, terrible weather in Gaziantep and the match is postponed again.
User avatar
psychoff
Posts: 91
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 2:52 pm
Contact:

Rizespor is postponed as well. Terrible weather conditions in Turkey
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

MobiusGrey wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:55 pm
You're absolutely right in that I was matched very quickly last night on the Chelsea match but it was like pulling teeth on the Brisbane match this morning when I tried again at much lower odds, although I may have wrongly assumed this was down to lower volumes.
In a nutshell that's due to ladder mechanics and different tick increment sizes, something priced around evens will generally move faster than something priced at 1.05, despite the big volume building up as time decay eats away at the market.
MobiusGrey wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:55 pm
Surely the edge would come in being able to read order flow, if you can create the free bet quicker than someone else you're exposed to a lesser extent and won't suffer as many losses ergo profits will be higher than someone who gets caught more often when a goal goes in and your back bet has just been matched?
Exactly, the edge in this instance would come from reading and trading order flow, price action, betting activity, however you want to call it. In other words, it would be a "ladder edge" so obviously one would need a good ladder skillset to make it pay. And you can slap fast pix on top of that if you want to feel in control of the market. But for me it's better to look for pockets of volatility than waiting on time decay to do its thing. The obvious dangers overall would be random long market suspensions, loss of feeds, cancelled goals/voided bets and stuff like that. But basically only ladder edges overall can be applied in such a flat manner without using stats, watching matches, requiring knowledge of the sport past the basics etc.

Btw that's a clear sign of a good trader, being able to regularly profit and make a living off football markets like Derek is clearly doing despite not possessing much knowledge about football (by his own recent admission) 👌
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Regarding losses when you get caught out, best to accept them, lol, no need to turn an acceptable loss into an unacceptable one :)
User avatar
MobiusGrey
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:10 pm

Kai wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:42 pm
Regarding losses when you get caught out, best to accept them, lol, no need to turn an acceptable loss into an unacceptable one :)
Having not had one yet (but only 3 matches in) I had planned on just closing out once the market settles after being caught by a goal. I have history with trying to recover losses and I can see myself getting into a mess unless I take this approach, I've decided to just bin that match altogether and move on.

I've tried a few different ways so far to create the free bet on the ladder, BA offers some neat tricks with being able to place a back bet marker below current price which is handy but I wish there was a way to get my lay matched first before the back bet goes in. Or, thinking about this on the fly, maybe there is, say around a corner or free kick on the edge of the box, I guess that could conceivably create the situation where you can get a lay matched first, the market then expands anticipating a goal and you can get a back bet matched at higher odds?
User avatar
psychoff
Posts: 91
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 2:52 pm
Contact:

BF did it again. Opened the MO markets before the pen has been taken. DONT try to make easy money, they are doing this deliberately and there is no way to benefit from this. Stay OUT
User avatar
MobiusGrey
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:10 pm

psychoff wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:17 pm
BF did it again. Opened the MO markets before the pen has been taken. DONT try to make easy money, they are doing this deliberately and there is no way to benefit from this. Stay OUT
Doesn't this beat the whole 'suspension' thing and will give an even bigger edge to those with faster pictures?
User avatar
psychoff
Posts: 91
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 2:52 pm
Contact:

MobiusGrey wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:31 pm
psychoff wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:17 pm
BF did it again. Opened the MO markets before the pen has been taken. DONT try to make easy money, they are doing this deliberately and there is no way to benefit from this. Stay OUT
Doesn't this beat the whole 'suspension' thing and will give an even bigger edge to those with faster pictures?
No actually. Even if you have faster pictures and get matched, BF then voids your original bet. You are in trouble if you have a hedge bet because it stands.
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

MobiusGrey wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:52 pm
Kai wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:42 pm
Regarding losses when you get caught out, best to accept them, lol, no need to turn an acceptable loss into an unacceptable one :)
Having not had one yet (but only 3 matches in) I had planned on just closing out once the market settles after being caught by a goal. I have history with trying to recover losses and I can see myself getting into a mess unless I take this approach, I've decided to just bin that match altogether and move on.

I've tried a few different ways so far to create the free bet on the ladder, BA offers some neat tricks with being able to place a back bet marker below current price which is handy but I wish there was a way to get my lay matched first before the back bet goes in. Or, thinking about this on the fly, maybe there is, say around a corner or free kick on the edge of the box, I guess that could conceivably create the situation where you can get a lay matched first, the market then expands anticipating a goal and you can get a back bet matched at higher odds?
The only real way to "recover losses" is to keep recycling the same old +EV strategy. But even the ones that posses a profitable strategy, knowingly or unknowingly, often cannot make it work because they lack the mental fortitude, particularly around the losses part. The stronger the edge the easier it is to overcome the mental part and vice versa, obviously.

But I think it's important not to get sidetracked with the "free bet" concept, the underlying concept here is to create profit first and foremost, then what you do with it is largely irrelevant, whether you turn it into free bets or use them for a different strategy or whatever is up to you.

Either way, have to learn your market and how it behaves, all markets have their own characteristics and traits, which can change and evolve as well, so simply put those that truly learn the behavior of their markets will no doubt find many ways to approach them profitably.
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

Kai wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:28 pm


Exactly, the edge in this instance would come from reading and trading order flow, price action, betting activity, however you want to call it. In other words, it would be a "ladder edge" so obviously one would need a good ladder skillset to make it pay. And you can slap fast pix on top of that if you want to feel in control of the market. But for me it's better to look for pockets of volatility than waiting on time decay to do its thing. The obvious dangers overall would be random long market suspensions, loss of feeds, cancelled goals/voided bets and stuff like that. But basically only ladder edges overall can be applied in such a flat manner without using stats, watching matches, requiring knowledge of the sport past the basics etc.
Kai, what is the ladder edge and ladder skill set you refer too?
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

On_The_Edge wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:04 pm
Kai, what is the ladder edge and ladder skill set you refer too?
The ability to make sense of the price action on a live market.

I know you've said you don't use trading software but have you not seen anyone else trade football or other sports via ladder view?
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

MobiusGrey wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:14 am
Derek27 wrote:
Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:04 pm


Nothing daft about that question. :) If you've got a free bet of £20 on the under market and the price is 1.1, you can pocket almost £20, your you can lay the profit away for a £200 free bet on overs. A goal, depending on the stage of the match, could push the price up to 1.5. That would give you a free bet of £100 on the unders or a green of £67. Two goals in the second half, with 20 minutes to go could push the price above 2.0.

Tried this last night on the Chelsea game and went relatively smoothly. I think I need to find the right time to create the free bet part though, I feel like I did this too early in the match when the odds on unders was higher, therefore if a goal goes in the odds would increase dramatically incurring a bigger loss. I think possibly the key is creating the free bet part either pre-kickoff or when the odds are a lot lower, therefore 1 goal goes in when you're exposed it's not as risky. I suppose this then links into what to do at this point, close for a loss is my feeling at the moment but will take a little bit of working out with forward testing.

Anyway, all of that was just to say thanks Derek, another string to my bow :)
It takes a bit of practice and experimenting to find the best angles. I often trade 2 o/u markets and only leave myself exposed on one at a time so any loss resulting from a goal is cushioned by the other market. I often walk away with nothing but can sometimes get some much better payouts by chucking my profits on the overs.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

MobiusGrey wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:52 pm
Kai wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:42 pm
Regarding losses when you get caught out, best to accept them, lol, no need to turn an acceptable loss into an unacceptable one :)
Having not had one yet (but only 3 matches in) I had planned on just closing out once the market settles after being caught by a goal. I have history with trying to recover losses and I can see myself getting into a mess unless I take this approach, I've decided to just bin that match altogether and move on.

I've tried a few different ways so far to create the free bet on the ladder, BA offers some neat tricks with being able to place a back bet marker below current price which is handy but I wish there was a way to get my lay matched first before the back bet goes in. Or, thinking about this on the fly, maybe there is, say around a corner or free kick on the edge of the box, I guess that could conceivably create the situation where you can get a lay matched first, the market then expands anticipating a goal and you can get a back bet matched at higher odds?
If you're trading the under 2.5 market, you can stake: maximum your willing to lose / (1 - under 2.5 price / under 1.5 price)

I have markers on my ladder so I can see what I will be greening/redding up at, your losses reduce as the game progresses, especially if you lay for your full profit liability (effectively trading the over market).
Post Reply

Return to “Football trading”