Today's Football

[Kai]

Hi Kai, what website is that screen grab from if you don’t mind me asking.

WhoScored, it has a nice preview for big matches where you can get the relevant info at a glance, just don't blindly trust their lineup predictions : https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/17293 ... -Tottenham

[Derek27]

10-men PSG go two up against Marseille.

[Lynskey888]

10-men PSG go two up against Marseille.

That's the second time this season they've taken the lead and held it after having a player sent off. In December, they beat Le Havre 2-0 after Donnarumma was red-carded in the 10th minute.

[Derek27]

10-men PSG go two up against Marseille.

That's the second time this season they've taken the lead and held it after having a player sent off. In December, they beat Le Havre 2-0 after Donnarumma was red-carded in the 10th minute.

I wouldn't like to be the red-carded player in those situations. It would make you feel surplus to requirements - I'd want them to lose without me.

[Beagle]

Hi Kai, what website is that screen grab from if you don’t mind me asking.

WhoScored, it has a nice preview for big matches where you can get the relevant info at a glance, just don't blindly trust their lineup predictions : https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/17293 ... -Tottenham

Thanks, yeah nice format.

[Lynskey888]

Well you can't expect to make the right call every time so better to get used to that uncertainty asap, before placing any trades you could ask yourself what's the worst thing that can possibly happen, and if you're not okay with that don't place that trade or scale back to whatever you feel comfortable risking

It's not the uncertainty per se that I find difficult. It's not even the risk that the market will move against me. What I can't handle is being absent in that overnight period when a price change could begin. Even when I'm looking for a pre-kickoff swing on the day of a game, I've got a terrible compulsion to constantly check the market.

You're right, though. What's the worst that could possibly happen? I've probably got a half-decent idea of the maximum downside when I enter. Something to work on...

[Derek27]

Betfair have gone back to their old live graphic, the new one didn't work.

[Kai]

Well you can't expect to make the right call every time so better to get used to that uncertainty asap, before placing any trades you could ask yourself what's the worst thing that can possibly happen, and if you're not okay with that don't place that trade or scale back to whatever you feel comfortable risking

It's not the uncertainty per se that I find difficult. It's not even the risk that the market will move against me. What I can't handle is being absent in that overnight period when a price change could begin. Even when I'm looking for a pre-kickoff swing on the day of a game, I've got a terrible compulsion to constantly check the market.

You're right, though. What's the worst that could possibly happen? I've probably got a half-decent idea of the maximum downside when I enter. Something to work on...

I had that same compulsion but it goes away, the more you trade the more you desensitize from the whims of the market and the more you realize that worst case you about break even, and obviously the more confidence you build in your approach (through past results) the less you will care about the bottom line of any one individual market (which are near perfect trading conditions tbh). The perfect conditions would be that you trade without any bias whatsoever but this is impossible, only auto/ai could do that, so best thing we can do is minimize our various biases to an irrelevant level

In general too many traders new and old (myself included at times) play too defensive and cut themselves short, you need some losses to show you where the borders of your edge are, and for that all-important commission

However, if someone is very new and emotionally involved in every trade then it's very possible they fall for every market trick out there (like ending up laying at the top of a range or backing at bottom etc) and their starting strategies are very -EV which means losses can accumulate relatively quickly

But I do get what you're saying, I remember some years back leaving a 20k lay overnight on a short priced fav like City which was a position size well outside my comfort zone, and I had trouble sleeping that night with irrational fears creeping into my into my subconscious, and what happened overnight was the market moved a few ticks against me and then pulled back a few into my favour, so maybe if I was awake I would have panicked and cut that one short, it also goes to show how thin the margins can be between loss and profit

[Kai]

This was worth a shot, rock bottom Forest Green pull off a huge result

[Derek27]

Empoli look as though they're in for a hammering.

[Euler]

This was worth a shot, rock bottom Forest Green pull off a huge result

Nice

[Derek27]

Germany considering retiring their number 44 shirt because it resembles the Swastika.

[Lynskey888]

I had that same compulsion but it goes away, the more you trade the more you desensitize from the whims of the market and the more you realize that worst case you about break even…

When the next opportunity comes along, I’ll remind myself of this, ta. Easier to commit thinking that the likely worst-case outcome is roughly break even. I will, however, need to trade more often to allow things to even out.

I’ve watched hundreds of pre-kickoff markets this season, trying to get an understanding of how they behave, but I’ve traded only a tiny proportion of that number. In part because of my can’t-leave-the-market-alone foibles mentioned above; also because of the larger stakes required to achieve a level of risk similar to what I’m used to in-play. These trades tie up most of what’s in my account, which leaves me committed to one trade only over a prolonged period of time. I’m reluctant to make another deposit in case I fall foul of affordability checks. When I spot the next pre-kickoff opportunity, perhaps I’ll just live with the restrictions it places on my ability to trade other markets simultaneously and try to be more patient. I’m certain of one thing, though: your 20K lay would have kept me awake at night, too.

[jamesedwards]

Fulham 2-0 down at Nottingham Forest make three substitutions in the 33rd minute.

(One for each sub)

[Michael5482]

Fulham 2-0 down at Nottingham Forest make three substitutions in the 33rd minute.

(One for each sub)

Everton need 11 subs v Newcastle there absolutely horrendous.