No, not with 3min left, Arsenal just had to clear that corner. I matched a couple of smaller back stakes at 1.12 to round off a bigger green position, at the best available price at the top of the range as the clock hit 97mins (iirc) with City preparing to take the corner.firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Mon Sep 23, 2024 7:30 amI don't actively trade football but I seem to observe that late minute goals are highly expected. Take this as an example 1.12 is saying Arsenal had an 89% probability of winning meaning there was an 11% probability that Man City would score. Would you normally back an 11% probability of a team scoring in a 3 minute window?
I didn't hedge like I usually would (or partly reverse the position) because I didn't see the value in it. After I saw a defensive masterclass from the best defence in Europe IMO. Ended the match at -252 total but would probably do the same again.
You're right though about last minute goals in general, I often profit off last minute winners or last moment penalties, there's been a few in the past week or so. But just because everyone can see goals coming it doesn't mean they should automatically jump in at whatever price, you have to re-evaluate the prices and manage your positions according to your judgement and what makes sense, whether to let bets run, or clear red, or hedge, or reverse, as the prices get pushed around and value switches sides etc.
In other words you trade what you see, and we all saw how quickly City drifted from mid 3s into oblivion over several minutes of toothless attacks. Arse deserved more but it's the Premier League so late drama is not out of the question, and you would think usually City would get at least one big chance in the last 20 mins
