Today's Football

[ShaunWhite]

And when I asked it for an equally compelling reason it IS useful I got.....

For an argument, it depends on what someone is trying to claim with xG—if they’re using it as a predictive tool for individual games, it’s easy to poke holes in. If they’re saying it has some value in long-term modeling, that’s a bit more defensible—but still not without flaws.

[weemac]

Another issue with Xg is that no account is taken of whether the ball is on the ground or bouncing when struck, moving or static?, is it spinning?, did the final pass come with pace or gently rolled to him?, headed or kicked?, is the kicker fresh or tired?, striker or defender? clean kick or hit off his arse?, straight in or deflected?, goalie good or rubbish?, and on and on.

For such a generalised guideline it's vastly overrated, imo.

[wearthefoxhat]

I tend to agree with the points made about the industry xG and how it has some deficiencies the way it produces a number.. However, as a metric that some traders/punters take seriously, it should be included in an assessment as other prediction models that form the pre-off market and in-play markets, use it as a key reference point. If they base a big trading/betting decision on it, without some interpretation, they could be exploited in some way.

I try and produce my own, based on attack/defence metrics, that can then be compared with the industry xG and the actual score, or both combined. If they align, then no difference, but if mine leans towards more goals, or no more goals, then, as long as I trust my data, I make a trade/bet accordingly.

The confidence factor mentioned is a good one for sure. An example of one today was Cole Palmer. Hadn't scored in 9 games, before todays game, and is lethal when taking a penalty, (12/12), yet, when he stepped up to take one today, the keeper read his intention, after a ref told him to re-spot the ball, and duly saved it.

[weemac]

At half-time in their Scottish Cup tie (on now), Livingston are only going to water the half of their artificial pitch that their opponents will be defending in the second half.

Dark arts, or a clever use of a rule that doesn't exist?

[henbet22]

Cheating

[jamesedwards]

z97.JPG

[jamesedwards]

Man Utd at evens looks great value

edited slightly at 21:58

[LeTiss]

Think a lot of punters are skint after Cheltenham.....the liquidity on todays PL matches is pretty grim

[Lynskey888]

I tried to get money matched in the correct score market for last Monday night’s PL game. I had good queue position at half-time, but the money was barely touched and I gave up in the end.

I’d hate to think things have got worse over the last week!

[greenmark]

As an LFC fan I have to say congtatulations to The Toon. They deserved it and won fair and square.

[Dublin_Flyer]

Watching the Ireland v Bulgaria match and Troy Parrott was on the bench after being subbed for a knock and had a long strip of kenesiology tape or something running the full length of his thigh. He picked at it and pulled it off while the camera was on him, dude waxed his leg on tv and didn't even flinch - possibly the hardest man in world football these days

[Dublin_Flyer]

https://www.skysports.com/football/vide ... lfway-line
Ding!

[Euler]

Nothing really going to form tonight

[Euler]

Fab free kick from Rice. You have to do something special to beat Courtois from there.

[Euler]

Fab free kick from Rice. You have to do something special to beat Courtois from there.

And another, hats off to Declan Rice.