Today's Football

[Trader Pat]

I'm steering clear of commenting on football odds for a while...

I still can't get my head around how Liverpool are as short as 2.12 to finish in the Top 4! I know people have different ways of evaluating 'value' but that's got to be a value lay however you do it

Well you just HAVE commented on it

So I have! (Note to self, must try harder!)

The prices seem to be factoring in a Leicester collapse like last year and every journalist and pundit seems to be banging on about Leicester's tough run in but if you break it down It's probably not as tough as everyone's making out.

Utd are pretty much guaranteed to field a bunch of reserves and youngsters tomorrow (and as we all know you don't win anything with kids, especially that lot!). Then Leicester are away to Chelsea, three days after playing them in the FA cup final. You'd have to fancy Chelsea at Wembley and might still be hungover a few days later and will also have one eye on the Champions League final. Where it could get interesting would be if Chelsea drop points against Arsenal on Wednesday, that could drag them right back into the fight.

But all of the above is predicated on Liverpool winning all four of their games and I just don't see that happening. Liverpool are third in the form table but just not convincing in games and are giving away too many chances that somebody will surely take in these remaining fixtures. There is a scenario that Liverpool could win 3/4 and still get into the Top 4 but that's really hoping for results to go our way.

I can see us beating Utd on Thursday but then getting beaten by either West Brom or Burnley, or both!

But have to stay positive and all that!

[Morbius]

I'm steering clear of commenting on football odds for a while...

I still can't get my head around how Liverpool are as short as 2.12 to finish in the Top 4! I know people have different ways of evaluating 'value' but that's got to be a value lay however you do it

Well you just HAVE commented on it

So I have! (Note to self, must try harder!)

The prices seem to be factoring in a Leicester collapse like last year and every journalist and pundit seems to be banging on about Leicester's tough run in but if you break it down It's probably not as tough as everyone's making out.

Utd are pretty much guaranteed to field a bunch of reserves and youngsters tomorrow (and as we all know you don't win anything with kids, especially that lot!). Then Leicester are away to Chelsea, three days after playing them in the FA cup final. You'd have to fancy Chelsea at Wembley and might still be hungover a few days later and will also have one eye on the Champions League final. Where it could get interesting would be if Chelsea drop points against Arsenal on Wednesday, that could drag them right back into the fight.

But all of the above is predicated on Liverpool winning all four of their games and I just don't see that happening. Liverpool are third in the form table but just not convincing in games and are giving away too many chances that somebody will surely take in these remaining fixtures. There is a scenario that Liverpool could win 3/4 and still get into the Top 4 but that's really hoping for results to go our way.

I can see us beating Utd on Thursday but then getting beaten by either West Brom or Burnley, or both!

But have to stay positive and all that!

You don't think like an odds compiler Pat

But you're a trader so all you have to worry about is will Liverpools odds for this market be greater than 11/10 at some stage... All it would take is united taking the lead this thursday or Leicester winning or even leading at OT and your in profit. Old Bruno stepping up to convert a penalty against your lot on Thursday early on and you'd be chanting BRUNO BRUNO

As I said the other day... I like to have a feeling that the odds are wrong for a trade and Liverpool can't be shorter than 6/4 for this market so if its a value bet then its a mega trade in my book. You already know I'm right from what you've said lol

[Trader Pat]

As I said the other day... I like to have a feeling that the odds are wrong for a trade and Liverpool can't be shorter than 6/4 for this market so if its a value bet then its a mega trade in my book. You already know I'm right from what you've said lol

I'm with you the odds should be at least 2.50 for me.

When the Utd team is announced tomorrow don't be surprised if they start heading that way

[Dallas]

Next Tuesday is going to be a good night with up to 10'000 fans finally allowed back in English stadiums

[wearthefoxhat]

Further evidence why the ESL was popular for some...

Juventus.png

[Trader Pat]

Strong line up by Utd today so expect everyone to be rested for Tuesday.

Leicester's price already on the move... wonder how low it will get

That's answered that!

[Kai]

Strong line up by Utd today so expect everyone to be rested for Tuesday.

Leicester's price already on the move... wonder how low it will get

That's answered that!

Game of Throws

They really had to make sure they throw away those 3 points Pat, just to shaft Liverpool. Surprised they didn't put Ole in the lineup as well ffs

[Trader Pat]

Game of Throws

They really had to make sure they throw away those 3 points Pat, just to shaft Liverpool. Surprised they didn't put Ole in the lineup as well ffs

I know he had to rest players but if Liverpool was the middle game of 3 in 5 days he wouldn't have rested that many.

4 wins a must now and then hope Leicester lose one of their remaining two, or less likely Chelsea don't get the 6 points they need from their remaining three games. Goal difference could still play a part to.

Keep the faith Kai!

[Morbius]

Game of Throws

They really had to make sure they throw away those 3 points Pat, just to shaft Liverpool. Surprised they didn't put Ole in the lineup as well ffs

I know he had to rest players but if Liverpool was the middle game of 3 in 5 days he wouldn't have rested that many.

4 wins a must now and then hope Leicester lose one of their remaining two, or less likely Chelsea don't get the 6 points they need from their remaining three games. Goal difference could still play a part to.

Keep the faith Kai!

All part of why they weren't 2.12 Pat to make top 4...just hope you took my advice

[Kai]

Game of Throws

They really had to make sure they throw away those 3 points Pat, just to shaft Liverpool. Surprised they didn't put Ole in the lineup as well ffs

I know he had to rest players but if Liverpool was the middle game of 3 in 5 days he wouldn't have rested that many.

4 wins a must now and then hope Leicester lose one of their remaining two, or less likely Chelsea don't get the 6 points they need from their remaining three games. Goal difference could still play a part to.

Keep the faith Kai!

All part of why they weren't 2.12 Pat to make top 4...just hope you took my advice

I take it you're enjoying yourself then Carl, working out various pre-off footy angles, since it probably feels very familiar

Granted it can be fun finding daft prices in the earlier stages of markets and it can feel a bit satisfying feeling like you're one or two steps in front of the market, but it's a shame that besides fixture-congested periods and cup matches etc there aren't too many huge opportunities on a regular basis. Some relatively small margins mostly, altho teamnews potential can be pretty efficient.

But can quickly get tiring too and needs some proper effort, working out your positions at the right times and covering all the liabilities plus some babysitting of prices and positions etc and far too much time to potentially over-think your positions/angles as well ... and I guess it's a cool way of participating in the market and ideally it should be "set and forget" if you can manage that but ye it's hard to compare all the effort with just showing up at a market and having markets line up in an orderly fashion lmao, which would be actual day trading

Ye, maybe would be nice to follow other leagues and stuff and things but very hard if you have zero interest in it.

[Trader Pat]

All part of why they weren't 2.12 Pat to make top 4...just hope you took my advice

I did, you're good at this!

[Kai]

All part of why they weren't 2.12 Pat to make top 4...just hope you took my advice

I did, you're good at this!

First dibs on his football trading course! Expecting a big discount too, 100% off.

[Trader Pat]

All part of why they weren't 2.12 Pat to make top 4...just hope you took my advice

I did, you're good at this!

First dibs on his football trading course! Expecting a big discount too, 100% off.

Might be a book in the pipeline too!

[Morbius]

All part of why they weren't 2.12 Pat to make top 4...just hope you took my advice

I did, you're good at this!

First dibs on his football trading course! Expecting a big discount too, 100% off.

I wouldn't even know how to articulate what's in my head but if I stick my head on the block in a post then I'm strong with that opinion but a lot of it is just experience over years of betting and following football. I used to be an odds compiler years ago so that helps but really nothing compares to your own analysis.

I don't know anything that I couldn't put into a post but the people like yourself and Pat already know the game and helped me think more like a trader and less like a bettor. Just a basic odds compilation of Fulham vs Burnley told me the odds were way off. A little snippet of data to take away.... There are only around 65-70m of effective game time on any 90m period so this is one huge factor for over estimation in the market.

My odds compilation system for example I could put into a post. Many would think it too simplistic but it compares overall results to current form and then adjusts for team news like United vs Leicester last night as United were a huge lay before the game even after the team news came out. Then greenwood's equaliser was a gift from the gods because you could green at 1-1 and then lay them again.

But like I said.. If I know a price is wrong I am more comfortable trading it because of my pure trading inexperience

[Kai]

I did, you're good at this!

First dibs on his football trading course! Expecting a big discount too, 100% off.

Might be a book in the pipeline too!

Indeed! But has to be something original and a fresh take on the old trading game, perhaps a title like "Step into my trading office..."

(Actually that title sounds good, I will make a note of it for future self)