Kai wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 12:13 pm
Morbius wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 11:35 am
I've been betting on football for 30 years
Also, that's exactly why I called dibs if and when you open a football trading course
Morbius wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 11:35 am
Carl's done alright this past dozen years
Welp, you've probably done better than me with the value betting, or most for that matter! Prior to Betfair, I could do wonders with a tenner on a lucky day back in high school days
You don't need a course or a book on logical thinking because that's all it is. That and pure observation which you are exceptional at. Years ago I just started looking at old league tables from completed seasons. Then one thing jumped out at me. If you construct a separate table of goals scored to goals conceded for every team that their actual league position was with 1-2 places of that.
For example if Leeds were 10th on goals scored and 14th on goals conceded that this averaged 12. Their actual league position was 11-13 a very high proportion of the time and very often 12th. It rarely came outside of 10-14.
Take Spurs at the moment.... Goals scored they are 4th. Goals conceded they are 6th equal with 2 other teams so that's 8. Add those two together and divide by 2 and you get 6. Their actual position is 7th. So what does this mean?? Well it means a lot of things when you dig especially the very delicate correlation between attacking and defending and transitional play. I built a simple odds compilation system from basic footballing principles.
It's really all in the data just like for example league position and how it warps market prices. Leeds for example have 50pts which is 1.42 pts per game. Burnley at 40pts are 1.14pts per game. A difference of 0.28pts per game is nothing when you factor in how much variance is in a typical football season. Leeds would be liable to be overpriced in a game like this but this is akin to looking at a historical betfair chart in horseracing.. Its only showing history.
Just like it's silly to have Chelsea at 9/5 for the CL final. It was only when I actually started betting on football that I knew how innacurate prices were after I started keeping records. Very easy to pay the market too much respect if you don't. Then when you link it with trading then in theory it should help you although it's often difficult to always know when to trade out because that can harm the EV of taking a permanent position. If I know what the implied inefficiency is then this gives me a guide for how much profit to aim for in a trade.
Although I have come unstuck with value betting in other sports and only stick to football now.
For everyone else to unsubscribe from the thread so that you, me, Dallas and others could have a little Liverpool corner! Dallas even has the powers to change the thread title when the time comes, I've thought of everything!
Until you did 
So far so good!