Today's Football

[Trader Pat]

I always think it shows the penalty taker isn't that confident to begin with

If he was on the pitch I would give it KDB every time. It should be fundamental in the arsenal of every top class footballer to be able to strike a ball well into the corner with pace from 12 yards.
But apart from Bruno and Kane there aren't many in the Prem you would hang your hat on. You're right about the confidence thing but if a player doesn't have the confidence to add power and go for the corner then he shouldn't be taking it. Just hoping to out fox the keeper by going down the middle is a tactic by takers who lack confidence or power. Plus it gives the keeper a chance to bluff the taker by faking movement left or right and holding his position to coerce a down the middle pen

Yeah absolutely, I think from a purely statistical point of view the way to go is to blast it down the middle because the gk rarely stands his ground but just chipping it up like that gives the goalie the chance to stand back up.

I think it looks better as well if you blast it, as long as it goes in of course!

[Morbius]

I always think it shows the penalty taker isn't that confident to begin with

If he was on the pitch I would give it KDB every time. It should be fundamental in the arsenal of every top class footballer to be able to strike a ball well into the corner with pace from 12 yards.
But apart from Bruno and Kane there aren't many in the Prem you would hang your hat on. You're right about the confidence thing but if a player doesn't have the confidence to add power and go for the corner then he shouldn't be taking it. Just hoping to out fox the keeper by going down the middle is a tactic by takers who lack confidence or power. Plus it gives the keeper a chance to bluff the taker by faking movement left or right and holding his position to coerce a down the middle pen

Yeah absolutely, I think from a purely statistical point of view the way to go is to blast it down the middle because the gk rarely stands his ground but just chipping it up like that gives the goalie the chance to stand back up.

I think it looks better as well if you blast it, as long as it goes in of course!

Absolutely.. If you go down the middle then ffs add power ala Beckham vs Argentina Sapporo 2002. He was never a great taker but he always added power and got over the ball. From the oldies Shearer took some beating and scored many pressure pens.

Just realised how much football junk is in my head

[Trader Pat]

Almost time to dust off the 'Lay Liverpool when leading 1-0 at home after 80 minutes bot'

[Trader Pat]

Liverpool into 2.5 to finish in the Top 4 and Leicester out to 2.02

Price seems to be factoring in that Liverpool are Utd's 3rd game in 5 days (which is probably why LFC are 2.16 for that game) but market seems to be neglecting the fact that Leicester are Utd's 2nd game in 5 days. Which game are Utd more likely to put the reserves out for? Forget the fact Utd won't want to do Liverpool any favours but in a run of 3 games in five days you'd be more likely to rest the bulk of your first team in the middle game especially when you have a Europa league final to consider.

This market is yet another great example of why trading beats betting every time

[HotStreak]

Anyone caught up in the voiding of O/U2.5 bets post the VAR disallowed goal during Anderlecht vs Antwerp? Sure the market had reformed.

[Morbius]

This market is yet another great example of why trading beats betting every time

It should really be a no brainer in the majority of cases unless of course you do actually have no brain

Trading just gives greater options and is more efficient. It also creates situations where pre event and in play markets can be linked to exploit pricing inefficiencies pre off.

However one caveat to that Pat is if you're very adept at spotting value and end up trading your EV away on the cheap. Even then trading reduces volatility through the trading of volatility but a very sharp punter will outstrip a bad or mediocre trader.

I laid City today pre off because their price looked wrong but I still traded out at one all. I'm always more confident if I know the price is out like I felt it was for Leeds/Spurs.... Arsenal/Villarreal

[Trader Pat]

This market is yet another great example of why trading beats betting every time

However one caveat to that Pat is if you're very adept at spotting value and end up trading your EV away on the cheap. Even then trading reduces volatility through the trading of volatility.

I laid City today pre off because their price looked wrong but I still traded out at one all I'm always more confident if I know the price is out.

That's a whole other skillset but if you've got that club in your bag too then happy days

Laying City today was a good call; familiarity, contempt and all that

[Morbius]

This market is yet another great example of why trading beats betting every time

However one caveat to that Pat is if you're very adept at spotting value and end up trading your EV away on the cheap. Even then trading reduces volatility through the trading of volatility.

I laid City today pre off because their price looked wrong but I still traded out at one all I'm always more confident if I know the price is out.

That's a whole other skillset but if you've got that club in your bag too then happy days

Laying City today was a good call; familiarity, contempt and all that

There's a lag with markets and league position often dictates lines. Like today... No way city should have been that price. Chelsea are clearly at their level now and with no crowd advantage and Chelsea driving for top 4 that price was off by around 10% as I mentioned pre-off.

In close run contests and all EPL are then often the manager makes the difference akin to a jockey in horseracing. Take Leeds today... Bielsa vs Mason.... No contest. Leeds are a fighting team while spurs are not showing the fight for big games. Another bad price. The markets also over react to short term results when all that is most of the time is short term variance

[Morbius]

This market is yet another great example of why trading beats betting every time

However one caveat to that Pat is if you're very adept at spotting value and end up trading your EV away on the cheap. Even then trading reduces volatility through the trading of volatility.

I laid City today pre off because their price looked wrong but I still traded out at one all I'm always more confident if I know the price is out.

That's a whole other skillset but if you've got that club in your bag too then happy days

Laying City today was a good call; familiarity, contempt and all that

I've a lot to learn about sports trading Pat but I look for other ways to get the job done if I can. I should have laid the draw in City vs Chelsea late on and didn't as the game flow screamed goal.... Still pissed about it

[Trader Pat]

The markets also over react to short term results when all that is most of the time is short term variance

Long may it continue

I've a lot to learn about sports trading Pat but I look for other ways to get the job done if I can. I should have laid the draw in City vs Chelsea late on and didn't as the game flow screamed goal.... Still pissed about it

Can't win them all but you seem to be approaching it from a logical point of view so should be up over the long run

[Morbius]

The markets also over react to short term results when all that is most of the time is short term variance

Long may it continue

I've a lot to learn about sports trading Pat but I look for other ways to get the job done if I can. I should have laid the draw in City vs Chelsea late on and didn't as the game flow screamed goal.... Still pissed about it

Can't win them all but you seem to be approaching it from a logical point of view so should be up over the long run

Ive done alright out of it Pat but poker was always my main income but want a new direction. I've learnt some painful lessons down the years. Like the time I was going to back Amir Khan when he fought Barrera for the world title in 2009. I was convinced Khan wouldn't lose this fight and MAB was long in the tooth and ring rusty and wouldn't cope with Khan's style.

That same day I was at my dentists and was reading Barry Mcguigans column in one of the rags and he went into a long description of how Khan couldn't win this fight. So not only didn't I back him I lumped on Barrera and I mean LUMPED.

Mcguigan was doing the commentary as well and after round 2 he said the thought Barrera was ring rusty and struggling to cope with Khans style. I won't repeat what came out of my mouth. Never trusted an experts opinion pre event since but they are good for in play.... You live and learn don't you

[Trader Pat]

Mcguigan was doing the commentary as well and after round 2 he said the thought Barrera was ring rusty and struggling to cope with Khans style. I won't repeat what came out of my mouth. Never trusted an experts opinion pre event since but they are good for in play.... You live and learn don't you

Always ignore the 'experts'

[Morbius]

Mcguigan was doing the commentary as well and after round 2 he said the thought Barrera was ring rusty and struggling to cope with Khans style. I won't repeat what came out of my mouth. Never trusted an experts opinion pre event since but they are good for in play.... You live and learn don't you

Always ignore the 'experts'

I became a miserable bastard that very same day

Catch you later fella

[Morbius]

So Chelsea beat City twice in a week without even being at home and are clearly at City's level and yet a best priced 9/5 is on offer for Chelsea to win the CL... 9/5 for an Even Money chance at worst and possible 4/5

[Morbius]

Why risk looking stupid like that. Keepers expect takers to go down the middle these days. Any top class player should be able to hit the corner with pace and precision. A keeper has little chance against pace and precision and 300k per week footballers should be able to do that

Just been reading Micah Richards comments on the pen and he's said Aguero was always trying panenkas in training and never scored them. Not that it matters for the title but it sure as hell matters for the CL final. Guardiola was always going to defend him but that was a shocker and now Chelsea have the psychological edge