Today's Football

[Euler]

Fulham 19 goals in three games. Amazing.

[Derek27]

Annoying, I closed my position in profit at Gaziantep and just realised after reading this thread that it’s all been voided .

You're obviously more knowledgeable about football than I am so this might be a better thread to engage in, rather than simply posting all your bets to a thread where the only interest attracted is not in your bets but why you're posting them.

I might in future , who knows. There’s no point in posting my bets in more than one place.

If you want to post your bets, post them to your diary thread and people who are interested can view them. If you want to discuss football, things that are happening in the markets or on the pitch, lineup info, etc. post here. People may be interested in something that's happened in a match they're not watching or info about a match about to start that you kindly alert them to, but not in your bets.

[On_The_Edge]

So will the market for Gaziantep vs Malatyaspor open again? I don’t see it on betfair.

[Derek27]

So will the market for Gaziantep vs Malatyaspor open again? I don’t see it on betfair.

No, all bets have been voided, unfortunately.

[MobiusGrey]

Nothing daft about that question. If you've got a free bet of £20 on the under market and the price is 1.1, you can pocket almost £20, your you can lay the profit away for a £200 free bet on overs. A goal, depending on the stage of the match, could push the price up to 1.5. That would give you a free bet of £100 on the unders or a green of £67. Two goals in the second half, with 20 minutes to go could push the price above 2.0.

Tried this last night on the Chelsea game and went relatively smoothly. I think I need to find the right time to create the free bet part though, I feel like I did this too early in the match when the odds on unders was higher, therefore if a goal goes in the odds would increase dramatically incurring a bigger loss. I think possibly the key is creating the free bet part either pre-kickoff or when the odds are a lot lower, therefore 1 goal goes in when you're exposed it's not as risky. I suppose this then links into what to do at this point, close for a loss is my feeling at the moment but will take a little bit of working out with forward testing.

Anyway, all of that was just to say thanks Derek, another string to my bow

[Kai]

Tried this last night on the Chelsea game and went relatively smoothly. I think I need to find the right time to create the free bet part though, I feel like I did this too early in the match when the odds on unders was higher, therefore if a goal goes in the odds would increase dramatically incurring a bigger loss. I think possibly the key is creating the free bet part either pre-kickoff or when the odds are a lot lower, therefore 1 goal goes in when you're exposed it's not as risky. I suppose this then links into what to do at this point, close for a loss is my feeling at the moment but will take a little bit of working out with forward testing.

Lower odds move slower, meaning longer exposure times, while the preoff market is more speculative and behaves very differently as there is no time decay yet.

Always have to ask yourself where would the edge come from, it's probably the most overlooked question in trading. Would this trading concept of flipping profit be profitable on its own, or would the edge come from his ladder ability in creating the free bets in the first place, or is he finding big value when laying appropriate matches at the appropriate time etc.

[MobiusGrey]

Tried this last night on the Chelsea game and went relatively smoothly. I think I need to find the right time to create the free bet part though, I feel like I did this too early in the match when the odds on unders was higher, therefore if a goal goes in the odds would increase dramatically incurring a bigger loss. I think possibly the key is creating the free bet part either pre-kickoff or when the odds are a lot lower, therefore 1 goal goes in when you're exposed it's not as risky. I suppose this then links into what to do at this point, close for a loss is my feeling at the moment but will take a little bit of working out with forward testing.

Lower odds move slower, meaning longer exposure times, while the preoff market is more speculative and behaves very differently as there is no time decay yet.

Always have to ask yourself where would the edge come from, it's probably the most overlooked question in trading. Would this trading concept of flipping profit be profitable on its own, or would the edge come from his ladder ability in creating the free bets in the first place, or is he finding big value when laying appropriate matches at the appropriate time etc.

This is a very good point, I assumed the edge came from creating the free bet in the first place, once this part is complete you have options as to what to do with that profit, pocket it try to spin it up to more profit by flipping it or break even worst case. From my experience so far I've relied very little on watching the match itself to decide what do once the free bet has been made but I have been a lot more diligent when exposed to a loss when creating the free bet.

You're absolutely right in that I was matched very quickly last night on the Chelsea match but it was like pulling teeth on the Brisbane match this morning when I tried again at much lower odds, although I may have wrongly assumed this was down to lower volumes.

Surely the edge would come in being able to read order flow, if you can create the free bet quicker than someone else you're exposed to a lesser extent and won't suffer as many losses ergo profits will be higher than someone who gets caught more often when a goal goes in and your back bet has just been matched?

[psychoff]

Still, terrible weather in Gaziantep and the match is postponed again.

[psychoff]

Rizespor is postponed as well. Terrible weather conditions in Turkey

[Kai]

You're absolutely right in that I was matched very quickly last night on the Chelsea match but it was like pulling teeth on the Brisbane match this morning when I tried again at much lower odds, although I may have wrongly assumed this was down to lower volumes.

In a nutshell that's due to ladder mechanics and different tick increment sizes, something priced around evens will generally move faster than something priced at 1.05, despite the big volume building up as time decay eats away at the market.

Surely the edge would come in being able to read order flow, if you can create the free bet quicker than someone else you're exposed to a lesser extent and won't suffer as many losses ergo profits will be higher than someone who gets caught more often when a goal goes in and your back bet has just been matched?

Exactly, the edge in this instance would come from reading and trading order flow, price action, betting activity, however you want to call it. In other words, it would be a "ladder edge" so obviously one would need a good ladder skillset to make it pay. And you can slap fast pix on top of that if you want to feel in control of the market. But for me it's better to look for pockets of volatility than waiting on time decay to do its thing. The obvious dangers overall would be random long market suspensions, loss of feeds, cancelled goals/voided bets and stuff like that. But basically only ladder edges overall can be applied in such a flat manner without using stats, watching matches, requiring knowledge of the sport past the basics etc.

Btw that's a clear sign of a good trader, being able to regularly profit and make a living off football markets like Derek is clearly doing despite not possessing much knowledge about football (by his own recent admission)

[Kai]

Regarding losses when you get caught out, best to accept them, lol, no need to turn an acceptable loss into an unacceptable one

[MobiusGrey]

Regarding losses when you get caught out, best to accept them, lol, no need to turn an acceptable loss into an unacceptable one

Having not had one yet (but only 3 matches in) I had planned on just closing out once the market settles after being caught by a goal. I have history with trying to recover losses and I can see myself getting into a mess unless I take this approach, I've decided to just bin that match altogether and move on.

I've tried a few different ways so far to create the free bet on the ladder, BA offers some neat tricks with being able to place a back bet marker below current price which is handy but I wish there was a way to get my lay matched first before the back bet goes in. Or, thinking about this on the fly, maybe there is, say around a corner or free kick on the edge of the box, I guess that could conceivably create the situation where you can get a lay matched first, the market then expands anticipating a goal and you can get a back bet matched at higher odds?

[psychoff]

BF did it again. Opened the MO markets before the pen has been taken. DONT try to make easy money, they are doing this deliberately and there is no way to benefit from this. Stay OUT

[MobiusGrey]

BF did it again. Opened the MO markets before the pen has been taken. DONT try to make easy money, they are doing this deliberately and there is no way to benefit from this. Stay OUT

Doesn't this beat the whole 'suspension' thing and will give an even bigger edge to those with faster pictures?

[psychoff]

BF did it again. Opened the MO markets before the pen has been taken. DONT try to make easy money, they are doing this deliberately and there is no way to benefit from this. Stay OUT

Doesn't this beat the whole 'suspension' thing and will give an even bigger edge to those with faster pictures?

No actually. Even if you have faster pictures and get matched, BF then voids your original bet. You are in trouble if you have a hedge bet because it stands.