Today's Football

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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footysystems
Posts: 165
Joined: Thu May 09, 2013 5:57 pm

Not bad there at all :shock:
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Pleased with my spreadsheet but made a multi-market cockup on that match. :lol:
StellaBot
Posts: 818
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Impressive
Well done :D
Its all about improving ;)

going well so far
always remember to watch the game live ;)
then make decisions based on likelihood of a b c etc
otherwise the numbers wont mean anything
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

I was expecting to see excellent liquidity on the winner takes all match between Derby and Sheff Wed

30mins to kick-off and only £30k matched

Hugely disappointing
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Morbius
Posts: 492
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:38 pm

StellaBot wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 12:49 am
Impressive
Well done :D
Its all about improving ;)

going well so far
always remember to watch the game live ;)
then make decisions based on likelihood of a b c etc
otherwise the numbers wont mean anything

yeah that's the Achilles Heel with all pre-event odds compilation really from a punting perspective and watching the game live allows you to get ahead of the market although it would be difficult for someone who didn't really understand football to game read and could mistake attacking with advantage. However that problem is easily circumvented. I prefer knowledgeable professional opinion in running as I can't trust myself to decipher the deeper side of the game better than an ex-pro can. I mentioned this in an earlier post regarding the 5-live commentators.

However the odds even before the off are often incorrect. Like I said in an earlier post, the price for Spurs at Leeds was shockingly too short by as much as 10% as was Arsenal at home to Villareal the other night but these are experience calls I make which isn't easy to quantify or pass on but I have been odds compiling football for a long time so its easy for me to see wrong prices
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Morbius
Posts: 492
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:38 pm

Why risk looking stupid like that. Keepers expect takers to go down the middle these days. Any top class player should be able to hit the corner with pace and precision. A keeper has little chance against pace and precision and 300k per week footballers should be able to do that
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

I always think it shows the penalty taker isn't that confident to begin with
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

If Liverpool miss out on the Top 4 by a point to Chelsea I'm getting Aguero engraved on the inside of my toilet bowl
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Surprised that Chelsea result hasn't really changed Liverpool's odds for the Top 4

That's the race run for me, I've used some green to back Leicester
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Morbius
Posts: 492
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:38 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 7:12 pm
I always think it shows the penalty taker isn't that confident to begin with
If he was on the pitch I would give it KDB every time. It should be fundamental in the arsenal of every top class footballer to be able to strike a ball well into the corner with pace from 12 yards.
But apart from Bruno and Kane there aren't many in the Prem you would hang your hat on. You're right about the confidence thing but if a player doesn't have the confidence to add power and go for the corner then he shouldn't be taking it. Just hoping to out fox the keeper by going down the middle is a tactic by takers who lack confidence or power. Plus it gives the keeper a chance to bluff the taker by faking movement left or right and holding his position to coerce a down the middle pen
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Morbius wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 8:50 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 7:12 pm
I always think it shows the penalty taker isn't that confident to begin with
If he was on the pitch I would give it KDB every time. It should be fundamental in the arsenal of every top class footballer to be able to strike a ball well into the corner with pace from 12 yards.
But apart from Bruno and Kane there aren't many in the Prem you would hang your hat on. You're right about the confidence thing but if a player doesn't have the confidence to add power and go for the corner then he shouldn't be taking it. Just hoping to out fox the keeper by going down the middle is a tactic by takers who lack confidence or power. Plus it gives the keeper a chance to bluff the taker by faking movement left or right and holding his position to coerce a down the middle pen
Yeah absolutely, I think from a purely statistical point of view the way to go is to blast it down the middle because the gk rarely stands his ground but just chipping it up like that gives the goalie the chance to stand back up.

I think it looks better as well if you blast it, as long as it goes in of course! :)
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Morbius
Posts: 492
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:38 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 8:57 pm
Morbius wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 8:50 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 7:12 pm
I always think it shows the penalty taker isn't that confident to begin with
If he was on the pitch I would give it KDB every time. It should be fundamental in the arsenal of every top class footballer to be able to strike a ball well into the corner with pace from 12 yards.
But apart from Bruno and Kane there aren't many in the Prem you would hang your hat on. You're right about the confidence thing but if a player doesn't have the confidence to add power and go for the corner then he shouldn't be taking it. Just hoping to out fox the keeper by going down the middle is a tactic by takers who lack confidence or power. Plus it gives the keeper a chance to bluff the taker by faking movement left or right and holding his position to coerce a down the middle pen
Yeah absolutely, I think from a purely statistical point of view the way to go is to blast it down the middle because the gk rarely stands his ground but just chipping it up like that gives the goalie the chance to stand back up.

I think it looks better as well if you blast it, as long as it goes in of course! :)

Absolutely.. If you go down the middle then ffs add power ala Beckham vs Argentina Sapporo 2002. He was never a great taker but he always added power and got over the ball. From the oldies Shearer took some beating and scored many pressure pens.

Just realised how much football junk is in my head :lol:
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Almost time to dust off the 'Lay Liverpool when leading 1-0 at home after 80 minutes bot'
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Liverpool into 2.5 to finish in the Top 4 and Leicester out to 2.02 :!:

Price seems to be factoring in that Liverpool are Utd's 3rd game in 5 days (which is probably why LFC are 2.16 for that game) but market seems to be neglecting the fact that Leicester are Utd's 2nd game in 5 days. Which game are Utd more likely to put the reserves out for? Forget the fact Utd won't want to do Liverpool any favours but in a run of 3 games in five days you'd be more likely to rest the bulk of your first team in the middle game especially when you have a Europa league final to consider.

This market is yet another great example of why trading beats betting every time :)
HotStreak
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:23 pm

Anyone caught up in the voiding of O/U2.5 bets post the VAR disallowed goal during Anderlecht vs Antwerp? Sure the market had reformed.
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