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greenmark
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Trader Pat wrote:
Sun May 30, 2021 1:14 pm
Morbius wrote:
Sun May 30, 2021 10:37 am
Many many pages ago on this mammoth thread I remarked how City were a lay in this tournament and their odds last night were a joke and as wrong as Uniteds were on Wednesday. Pep knew they were up against it before the final even started. Losing KDB didn't help but I honestly don't think it would have made a difference. In one on one's top coaches are working Guardiola out but he gets away with it in the Prem because opposing teams don't have the quality to hurt City. Ten years without the CL is a hell of a long time with the assets he's had at his disposal it Bayern and City
Tuchel got it tactically spot on but the reason City lost is down to Guardiola.

If he would have played his strongest first eleven City would have had more than one shot on goal and chances are they would have won that game. The effect of not starting Rodri or Fernandinho was huge, De Bruyne was very quiet in that game before going off injured and Sterling was non existent. You can be sure some City players will be questioning Pep's decisions to themselves if not openly so next season will be interesting.

Don't think the UK media and pundits will criticise Pep too much because he wins domestic titles and its a popularity contest with most of them but if Chelsea would have lost that game Tuchel would have been slaughtered for leaving Abraham out of the squad completely, especially with Werner missing some good chances.
I agree with all that. And I think the market did reflect the City selection. I'd only add that with Kante in midfield, having two non-physical, creative midfielders (Foden and Silva) did have a detrimental impact. Foden at times looked like a schoolboy in a seniors game.
And putting Gundogan straight back in after injury AND weirdly playing Sterling who has been out of favour was just weird.
I honestly think Pep is a little bit crazy. Incredibly driven to the point of obsession, but sometimes seems to fix stuff that isn't broken.
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Morbius
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jamesg46 wrote:
Sun May 30, 2021 12:40 pm
Morbius wrote:
Sun May 30, 2021 12:04 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Sun May 30, 2021 11:16 am


I remember reading it at the time, not the detail behind why you said they were a lay but I remember the post.

I looked at the price before the game, not to take a position but just to be nosey (was it around even?) and it really didn't stand out to me. Thinking back about it now, it seems it was way off given the fine margins it would take to come away with the victory & both managers talked about that in the days leading up.

Tbh anyway, I wouldn't of known value if it slapped me in the face (obviously because I missed it). As we all know though the market is very efficient over the long term which leads me to beg the question... where did the value come from, was it better perception or maybe from people like me who would fear taking on City at any price?.

Hey fella... Well that rabbit hole goes a bit deep. The price last night for City to win the CL was circa 1/2 but chelsea were 9/5 after the semi. Value is tough to explain because for me it's an experience thing and I just learned to back my judgement in football a long time ago.

The efficiency that you refer to is an overall one and not an individual one. For example if you took 100,000 even money shots the end result would be a win ratio of c50% in an efficient market. But that is what I call a composite efficiency because over priced teams offset under priced ones. In many instances the market lags.

This is why many traders trade in running because the game dynamics are not in sync with pre game prices when the market however sophisticated only has pre event data to go on. So why were city too short last night??? There are many reasons for that of which some are my own opinions and are not quantifiable. I believe league titles and points totals affect odds but these lag.

For example it pretty clear to me that Chelsea were operating at City's level for the past few weeks. This game was a coin flip at best but Chelsea have beaten them twice recently. Tuchel like Emery is very tactically adept and another factor was in how I think city handed Chelsea the psychological edge in their two previous meetings.

Werner may not be scoring goals but what he brings to the team is immense and is why Tuchel picks him. His pace is awesome for a forward and akin to Mbappe and changes the game dynamic. He gets offside too much but that part will improve... Digressing too much here.

The market always overreacts to league titles but that is a year long average. Just like it overreacted to Uniteds 2nd place finish in the Prem when really it's a false position. At the end of the day don't try to find value the way I do. It's hard to quantify... Just trade to your strengths
"The efficiency you refer to is an overall one, not an individual one".

I love that comment because on the surface it comes across as very plain but, if we were to pause on this comment & delve into it I think it could lead to some very insteresting conversations.

I've always had a similar mindset in regards to there being value in judgement, the problem I've always had with that personally is not being able to quantify it as a margin & also getting lost in the subjectivity, especially over longer periods of time.

The subjectivity that you mention is a big problem for many traders. It's like the age old question of comparing quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis. Quants vs Actuaries for example. Yes the subject matter is very deep but for me it's about highlighting what you believe to be RELEVANT facts....sorry for the caps but that point needed to be highlighted.

Market efficiency is ever present and for example the football markets on Pinnacle were proven to show the actual probability of the result to 99.7%. This if misinterpreted appears to indicate very little wiggle room to make money. This couldn't be further from the truth.

A brief analogy if I may.... Its a simple one but it gets the job done. If I ask you a sum of 4x4 then the most efficient and accurate answer is 16. But the markets while arriving at 16 don't arrive at 16 all the time. So take the following sequence.... 13...22....10...19...8 and 24. So in answer to the sum of what is 4x4, the market didn't answer it with 16,16,16,16,16,16 over 6 events but 13,22,10,19,8,24. Add them together you get 96 and divide that by the number of events you get 16 but none of them were actually 16. This is the real true "efficiency" of financial markets and what I meant by composite efficiency. So respect the long term efficiency which means don't expect to make money trading/betting blindly but show the composite efficiency far less respect
Trader Pat
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Copa America is set to be moved to Brazil.. Brazil already favourites

Only 4.2k matched and its starting in a few weeks
greenmark
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I swear I can hear crickets on the Croatia v Armenia game.
Trader Pat
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Hell of a few weeks for Liverpool fans. Make the Top 4 after it looked very unlikely a couple of months ago, Utd get beaten in a European final, City get beaten in a European final and now Everton lose their manager! Not that I or any LFC fan would take pleasure in any of that! 🤣
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wearthefoxhat
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Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:52 pm
Hell of a few weeks for Liverpool fans. Make the Top 4 after it looked very unlikely a couple of months ago, Utd get beaten in a European final, City get beaten in a European final and now Everton lose their manager! Not that I or any LFC fan would take pleasure in any of that! 🤣
So that's;

Everton (Maybe Eddie Howe)
C.Palace (Maybe Nuno Esprito Santo)
Spurs (Maybe Eric Ten Hag)
Wolves (Maybe Frank Lampard)
West Brom (Maybe Chris Wilder)

Right ole palaver....
Trader Pat
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:26 pm
So that's;

Everton (Maybe Eddie Howe)
C.Palace (Maybe Nuno Esprito Santo)
Spurs (Maybe Eric Ten Hag)
Wolves (Maybe Frank Lampard)
West Brom (Maybe Chris Wilder)

Right ole palaver....
Ten Hag the best out of that bunch.

As long as Ole stays put to guide Utd to 2nd & 3rd place finishes I'm happy!

Bonkers couple of months for managerial changes, In Serie A only 2 coaches out of 20 who started this season will be in charge at the start of next season!
greenmark
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Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:38 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:26 pm
So that's;

Everton (Maybe Eddie Howe)
C.Palace (Maybe Nuno Esprito Santo)
Spurs (Maybe Eric Ten Hag)
Wolves (Maybe Frank Lampard)
West Brom (Maybe Chris Wilder)

Right ole palaver....
Ten Hag the best out of that bunch.

As long as Ole stays put to guide Utd to 2nd & 3rd place finishes I'm happy!

Bonkers couple of months for managerial changes, In Serie A only 2 coaches out of 20 who started this season will be in charge at the start of next season!
Not shocked about Ancelotti, he's. Mr "Safe pair of hands".
Great shame for Everton.
If I was a Toffee I'd have Nuno above Howe. Nuno is more ruthless, Howe is a football romantic.
Wolves is surely Lage? Part of the Mendes stable along with Nuno, Jose and Wolves recruitment process. Shoo-in, surely?

Can't quite believe Poch is odds on to return to Spurs. Why would you? Except for the romantic idea of transporting Spurs back to the Glory Days.
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Derek27
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How markets move so much shortly after the half-time whistle's blown still beats the hell out of me! It's not as if it's unexpected, there must be at least a million people watching Uruguay v Paraguay, just waiting for the ref to blow the whistle so they can go to the toilet, get a beer or snack. :lol:
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Morbius
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darchas wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 11:07 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 9:44 am
It was a really enjoyable game :lol:

Some great pens in the shoot out but it should never have got to 11-10, the Villareal goalie had his hands on a couple and couldn't keep them out. Felt a bit for De Gea having to play the villain. Biggest moment in Villarreal's history so it was nice there were some fans there to share it.

Highlight of the night for me was listening to those ex Utd players in the studio.. what a sour bunch. Was disappointed in Scholes, always thought he had a bit more about him as a pundit but he was as vinegar as the rest of them after the game.

If Utd want to be serious contenders then they should hire the newly available Conte, he'd sort them out. But they'll stick with Fergie's pet and won't win anything of note except maybe a domestic trophy.

Now if only Chelsea can beat City at the weekend then it would be the perfect end to the season :D
Amazingly I saw a stat that said De Gea has now conceded the last 36 penalties he's faced, last saving one back in April 2016. Would be a tough call to pull a goalie off and swap out for a penalty shoot out, but given managers plan the takers might have been one to consider. Tough one though for sure and I imagine a fair bit of variance in that sample size.

Apologies for dragging this thread back 5 pages but have only just seen this. That is an amazing stat and very revealing about his technique. It could be just sample size error but I would be certainly looking close at him if I was the United goalkeeping coach.

IMO given the huge advantage the taker has, a keeper has to gamble to optimise his strike rate or at the very least do research on the likely takers that you will be facing but that comes down to the coaching staff and in particular the analytical team.

I recall during the 1990 WC semi, Peter Shilton read every single penalty but was beaten every time simply because his reaction time couldn't match a well placed penalty. Some keepers don't want to appear stupid going the wrong way. In some cases if you know the taker doesn't always strike them cleanly then reading and delaying works. But in Italia 90 the Germans took exceptional pens and again in Euro 96.

But 36/36 is way off as he should have been saving 25% of them and if he's as good as people make out then he should be hitting 30%. With De Gea he always has this look about him that he's not happy and going through the motions
greenmark
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Morbius wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:20 pm
darchas wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 11:07 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 9:44 am
It was a really enjoyable game :lol:

Some great pens in the shoot out but it should never have got to 11-10, the Villareal goalie had his hands on a couple and couldn't keep them out. Felt a bit for De Gea having to play the villain. Biggest moment in Villarreal's history so it was nice there were some fans there to share it.

Highlight of the night for me was listening to those ex Utd players in the studio.. what a sour bunch. Was disappointed in Scholes, always thought he had a bit more about him as a pundit but he was as vinegar as the rest of them after the game.

If Utd want to be serious contenders then they should hire the newly available Conte, he'd sort them out. But they'll stick with Fergie's pet and won't win anything of note except maybe a domestic trophy.

Now if only Chelsea can beat City at the weekend then it would be the perfect end to the season :D
Amazingly I saw a stat that said De Gea has now conceded the last 36 penalties he's faced, last saving one back in April 2016. Would be a tough call to pull a goalie off and swap out for a penalty shoot out, but given managers plan the takers might have been one to consider. Tough one though for sure and I imagine a fair bit of variance in that sample size.

Apologies for dragging this thread back 5 pages but have only just seen this. That is an amazing stat and very revealing about his technique. It could be just sample size error but I would be certainly looking close at him if I was the United goalkeeping coach.

IMO given the huge advantage the taker has, a keeper has to gamble to optimise his strike rate or at the very least do research on the likely takers that you will be facing but that comes down to the coaching staff and in particular the analytical team.

I recall during the 1990 WC semi, Peter Shilton read every single penalty but was beaten every time simply because his reaction time couldn't match a well placed penalty. Some keepers don't want to appear stupid going the wrong way. In some cases if you know the taker doesn't always strike them cleanly then reading and delaying works. But in Italia 90 the Germans took exceptional pens and again in Euro 96.

But 36/36 is way off as he should have been saving 25% of them and if he's as good as people make out then he should be hitting 30%. With De Gea he always has this look about him that he's not happy and going through the motions
Saving a penalty is a skill. But general goalkeeping is different. I like De Gea (although he looks a bit demotivated at the moment). He took a lot of stick when he joined Man U. I think he's been bigger than Schmeichel because he's had a flaky defence and midfield. But certainly noticed a drop-off over the last few months.
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Morbius
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greenmark wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:53 pm
Morbius wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:20 pm
darchas wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 11:07 pm


Amazingly I saw a stat that said De Gea has now conceded the last 36 penalties he's faced, last saving one back in April 2016. Would be a tough call to pull a goalie off and swap out for a penalty shoot out, but given managers plan the takers might have been one to consider. Tough one though for sure and I imagine a fair bit of variance in that sample size.

Apologies for dragging this thread back 5 pages but have only just seen this. That is an amazing stat and very revealing about his technique. It could be just sample size error but I would be certainly looking close at him if I was the United goalkeeping coach.

IMO given the huge advantage the taker has, a keeper has to gamble to optimise his strike rate or at the very least do research on the likely takers that you will be facing but that comes down to the coaching staff and in particular the analytical team.

I recall during the 1990 WC semi, Peter Shilton read every single penalty but was beaten every time simply because his reaction time couldn't match a well placed penalty. Some keepers don't want to appear stupid going the wrong way. In some cases if you know the taker doesn't always strike them cleanly then reading and delaying works. But in Italia 90 the Germans took exceptional pens and again in Euro 96.

But 36/36 is way off as he should have been saving 25% of them and if he's as good as people make out then he should be hitting 30%. With De Gea he always has this look about him that he's not happy and going through the motions
Saving a penalty is a skill. But general goalkeeping is different. I like De Gea (although he looks a bit demotivated at the moment). He took a lot of stick when he joined Man U. I think he's been bigger than Schmeichel because he's had a flaky defence and midfield. But certainly noticed a drop-off over the last few months.

Agree with all of that but I was just making the point really that at a club like United with the likely backroom staff they have then it shouldn't be just down to the "skill" of the keeper. I like De Gea too. Not sure about him being bigger than PS but he might be as you say... Just that I'd never thought about a comparison. When DDG was at his best there were non better in world football IMO
greenmark
Posts: 4948
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

Morbius wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:37 pm
greenmark wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:53 pm
Morbius wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:20 pm



Apologies for dragging this thread back 5 pages but have only just seen this. That is an amazing stat and very revealing about his technique. It could be just sample size error but I would be certainly looking close at him if I was the United goalkeeping coach.

IMO given the huge advantage the taker has, a keeper has to gamble to optimise his strike rate or at the very least do research on the likely takers that you will be facing but that comes down to the coaching staff and in particular the analytical team.

I recall during the 1990 WC semi, Peter Shilton read every single penalty but was beaten every time simply because his reaction time couldn't match a well placed penalty. Some keepers don't want to appear stupid going the wrong way. In some cases if you know the taker doesn't always strike them cleanly then reading and delaying works. But in Italia 90 the Germans took exceptional pens and again in Euro 96.

But 36/36 is way off as he should have been saving 25% of them and if he's as good as people make out then he should be hitting 30%. With De Gea he always has this look about him that he's not happy and going through the motions
Saving a penalty is a skill. But general goalkeeping is different. I like De Gea (although he looks a bit demotivated at the moment). He took a lot of stick when he joined Man U. I think he's been bigger than Schmeichel because he's had a flaky defence and midfield. But certainly noticed a drop-off over the last few months.

Agree with all of that but I was just making the point really that at a club like United with the likely backroom staff they have then it shouldn't be just down to the "skill" of the keeper. I like De Gea too. Not sure about him being bigger than PS but he might be as you say... Just that I'd never thought about a comparison. When DDG was at his best there were non better in world football IMO
"When DDG was at his best there were non better in world football IMO". I think so. Been trying to find a clip of him saving a great free kick out of the postage stamp. Think it was against Chelsea, must be more than 10 years ago now. But that's his USP. Pure springy athleticism. Penalties? Nah. No time to show his ability. If he's one on one, in open play, ie pure reaction then maybe. If he has sight of the ball for a bit longer than a penalty, he's brilliant. But it seems Henderson has displaced De Gea as No. 1 at United. Where next? Not Real or Barca. Seems like he'll vegetate at Man U. Terrible waste really.
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Morbius
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greenmark wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:35 pm
Morbius wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:37 pm
greenmark wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:53 pm

Saving a penalty is a skill. But general goalkeeping is different. I like De Gea (although he looks a bit demotivated at the moment). He took a lot of stick when he joined Man U. I think he's been bigger than Schmeichel because he's had a flaky defence and midfield. But certainly noticed a drop-off over the last few months.

Agree with all of that but I was just making the point really that at a club like United with the likely backroom staff they have then it shouldn't be just down to the "skill" of the keeper. I like De Gea too. Not sure about him being bigger than PS but he might be as you say... Just that I'd never thought about a comparison. When DDG was at his best there were non better in world football IMO
"When DDG was at his best there were non better in world football IMO". I think so. Been trying to find a clip of him saving a great free kick out of the postage stamp. Think it was against Chelsea, must be more than 10 years ago now. But that's his USP. Pure springy athleticism. Penalties? Nah. No time to show his ability. If he's one on one, in open play, ie pure reaction then maybe. If he has sight of the ball for a bit longer than a penalty, he's brilliant. But it seems Henderson has displaced De Gea as No. 1 at United. Where next? Not Real or Barca. Seems like he'll vegetate at Man U. Terrible waste really.

Was that the save that got compared to Banks in the 70 WC???
greenmark
Posts: 4948
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

Morbius wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:57 pm
greenmark wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:35 pm
Morbius wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:37 pm



Agree with all of that but I was just making the point really that at a club like United with the likely backroom staff they have then it shouldn't be just down to the "skill" of the keeper. I like De Gea too. Not sure about him being bigger than PS but he might be as you say... Just that I'd never thought about a comparison. When DDG was at his best there were non better in world football IMO
"When DDG was at his best there were non better in world football IMO". I think so. Been trying to find a clip of him saving a great free kick out of the postage stamp. Think it was against Chelsea, must be more than 10 years ago now. But that's his USP. Pure springy athleticism. Penalties? Nah. No time to show his ability. If he's one on one, in open play, ie pure reaction then maybe. If he has sight of the ball for a bit longer than a penalty, he's brilliant. But it seems Henderson has displaced De Gea as No. 1 at United. Where next? Not Real or Barca. Seems like he'll vegetate at Man U. Terrible waste really.

Was that the save that got compared to Banks in the 70 WC???
Got it. 1:15 in saving a Mata free kick.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRjHf1q46AA
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