Mike Cruickshank's "Momentum system"

[ilovepizza82]

Has anyone tried his football strat ?
In his video he lays 0-0 & backs 1-0 & 0-1. You trade out as soon as there is a goal or at half time if it's still 0-0. If there's a goal your 0-0 lay wins, one of the 1-0 bets loses & u lock profit in the other 1-0 bet where the team is leading as the price would hopefully be lower than the pre match price.
The example in the vid was a £14 lay stake on 0-0 @15.0, a £[email protected] & £8 @17.0 back stake on the 1-0 & 0-1 respectively.
I tried to replicate it and so I did a paper trade on one of the games i picked.. It was 0-0 at HT and i was in red -20
I picked fairly even teams. No clear favourite and fairly low odds, 0-0 @13.5, backed 1-0 @9.2, 0-1 @13.0


https://imgur.com/EIrPZy8
https://imgur.com/QVec83Y
https://imgur.com/QVxn4p0
https://imgur.com/i0aYAcw

[wearthefoxhat]

Has anyone tried his football strat ?
In his video he lays 0-0 & backs 1-0 & 0-1. You trade out as soon as there is a goal or at half time if it's still 0-0. If there's a goal your 0-0 lay wins, one of the 1-0 bets loses & u lock profit in the other 1-0 bet where the team is leading as the price would hopefully be lower than the pre match price.
The example on the vid was a £14 lay stake on 0-0, a £13 & £8 back stake on the 1-0 & 0-1 respectively.
I did a paper trade. It was 0-0 at HT and i was in red -20

No, not heard of that one.

The Lay @ 0-0 needs to be quite a low price (Maybe 2.50 or less) if backing 1-0, 0-1. Could also work when the score is 1-1, and backing 2-1, 1-2.

Game selection using one of many football stats sites where goals are expected, would be important.

[ilovepizza82]

In one of those screenshots its 0-0, 23min mark and he is already in profit £12 !!!
How did he do that ?!
I mean i know 1-0 and 0-1 must shorten but ...come on
He claims he only did what his strat says: lay 0-0, back 1-0 and 0-1

[Euler]

What staking system was used?

[ilovepizza82]

What staking system was used?

Have a look:
https://www.momentumsystem.co.uk/buy/momentumsystem.htm

PS: Not encouraging you to buy it ( I personally did not)
Its just that the video is there.

[wearthefoxhat]

In one of those screenshots its 0-0, 23min mark and he is already in profit £12 !!!
How did he do that ?!
I mean i know 1-0 and 0-1 must shorten but ...come on
He claims he only did what his strat says: lay 0-0, back 1-0 and 0-1

1-0 and 0-1 will shorten if there's sufficient momentum with normal decay. (maybe that why he called it that)

[wearthefoxhat]

Has anyone tried his football strat ?
In his video he lays 0-0 & backs 1-0 & 0-1. You trade out as soon as there is a goal or at half time if it's still 0-0. If there's a goal your 0-0 lay wins, one of the 1-0 bets loses & u lock profit in the other 1-0 bet where the team is leading as the price would hopefully be lower than the pre match price.
The example in the vid was a £14 lay stake on 0-0 @15.0, a £[email protected] & £8 @17.0 back stake on the 1-0 & 0-1 respectively.
I tried to replicate it and so I did a paper trade on one of the games i picked.. It was 0-0 at HT and i was in red -20
I picked fairly even teams. No clear favourite and fairly low odds, 0-0 @13.5, backed 1-0 @9.2, 0-1 @13.0


https://imgur.com/EIrPZy8
https://imgur.com/QVec83Y
https://imgur.com/QVxn4p0
https://imgur.com/i0aYAcw

It seems the "software" needs the odds to be within a certain range to then calculate the appropriate stakes.

I can forecast that if a lot of people pile on the same qualifying game(s), the odds will move away and some will be stuck in limbo with a loss (as you described above).

Maybe there's a sweet spot in-play, that with a no goal scenario, a green occurs, before half time. That would make sense so the bank could be protected. (or even a small red) Avoiding the quick 2 goals scenario would be important too,

[jimibt]

In his video he lays 0-0 & backs 1-0 & 0-1. You trade out as soon as there is a goal or at half time if it's still 0-0.

isn't this effectively (regarding trading out at half-time or as soon as a goal), the same as backing over 0.5 goals in the halftime market and laying 0-0 as described?? (thinking that you'll maybe get better odds on the ou market... in fact, when boiled down like this, it's all centred on the halftime ou0.5 market really)

anyway, having tried similar schemes before, it really does boil down to match selection for this type of thing. I also don't recall ever making significant sums either (when partying on dual markets for single exit)..

will be interesting to see if how it pans out for you tho -good luck (oh - and a happy new year all!)

[Kai]

Didn't the guy practically reveal everything in his preview video?

I'm pretty sure people on here could work out the prices and the staking if they wanted to without buying his stuff. My math is usually terrible and haven't seen his full 1 hour video but it sounds to me like he found a small (5% profit on your stakes iirc?) market inefficiency in those three scorelines in some matches, much like the infamous Slicer supposedly did? His match selection seems purely mathematical and the only edge here seems to be this small market inefficiency. No idea how old his system is but any market inefficiency should be corrected over time, which is very evident in his marketing scheme (he offered the system for 250 pounds for the first year and 40 pounds for the following years ).

The whole strategy concept is just to play the 0-0 against one of the other scorelines which cancel each other out soon as the first goal flies in, and then you're supposedly left with a profit on the remaining 3rd scoreline. But the main and only idea here is to exploit this price inefficiency and securing a very small profit, although apparently completely risk free which shouldn't happen in an efficient market. Typical arbers approach strategy?

When I was testing out my various ideas on inplay footy I too found some market inefficiencies but they weren't present prematch like this guy is claiming, they were created during the match in certain situations and were only temporary (I guess different pace of decay), so never bothered to pursuit it further.

[Dallas]

Could be a contender for here
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=20237

[ilovepizza82]

Managed to get some screenshots.
So apparently you have to drip back 0-0 inplay:
https://imgur.com/qyZcefP
https://imgur.com/fQZI4B3

Should be easy to do reversed enginneering now and replicate the strat in the excell.
PS: You need to enter your max liability first in the "max liability" box.

[wearthefoxhat]

Managed to get some screenshots.
So apparently you have to drip back 0-0 inplay:
https://imgur.com/qyZcefP
https://imgur.com/fQZI4B3

Should be easy to do reversed enginneering now and replicate the strat in the excell.
PS: You need to enter your max liability first in the "max liability" box.

Nice screenshots..

----------------

Notes:

The sweet spot for the right CS odds for the 0-0 Lay, seems to be less than 14.00. The Back odds for 0-1, 1-0 would then correlate accordingly.

The max liability of £1000 splits ---> 13% dutch on the 0-1, 1-0 and the remaining 87% liability for the Lay 0-0.

The BACK drip on 0-0 total stake, if all matched before HT, @ 9% of initial liability. (returns up to 50% of the initial £1000 liability)
The average BACK odds are around 7.00

The Max risk of £143.70 would be met after the red trading out the current position on the initial Lay 0-0 and Back bets @ 1-0, 0-1 and then adding in the BACK drip returns.

---------------

One advantage is that everything remains in the Correct Score market and only one set of commission can be applied.
There are some useful bits of insurance trading elements built in that can be applied to other markets.

My original thoughts of market overload/over reaction to get the right price(s) will occur if too many try to lump on the same game. This will in turn reduce the "potential profitability" overall.

Game selection using something like soccerstats, would help focus on likely first half goal candidates.

Example:

leicvsoton.GIF

But....the 0-0 Correct score Lay is around 19.00...so too high for consideration.

[jimibt]

But....the 0-0 Correct score Lay is around 19.00...so too high for consideration.

this is maybe where one would consider using the halftime cs market instead, that way, you get the 0-0 lay down to about 3-4 odds. it does however mean that you are locking yourself into a first half only scenario (plus 2 commissions) and thus required to exit both markets before halftime (unless a goal has been scored, in which case, all good).

[ilovepizza82]

Managed to get some screenshots.
So apparently you have to drip back 0-0 inplay:
https://imgur.com/qyZcefP
https://imgur.com/fQZI4B3

Should be easy to do reversed enginneering now and replicate the strat in the excell.
PS: You need to enter your max liability first in the "max liability" box.

Nice screenshots..

----------------

Notes:

The sweet spot for the right CS odds for the 0-0 Lay, seems to be less than 14.00. The Back odds for 0-1, 1-0 would then correlate accordingly.

The max liability of £1000 splits ---> 13% dutch on the 0-1, 1-0 and the remaining 87% liability for the Lay 0-0.

The BACK drip on 0-0 total stake, if all matched before HT, @ 9% of initial liability. (returns up to 50% of the initial £1000 liability)
The average BACK odds are around 7.00

The Max risk of £143.70 would be met after the red trading out the current position on the initial Lay 0-0 and Back bets @ 1-0, 0-1 and then adding in the BACK drip returns.

---------------

One advantage is that everything remains in the Correct Score market and only one set of commission can be applied.
There are some useful bits of insurance trading elements built in that can be applied to other markets.

My original thoughts of market overload/over reaction to get the right price(s) will occur if too many try to lump on the same game. This will in turn reduce the "potential profitability" overall.

Game selection using something like soccerstats, would help focus on likely first half goal candidates.

Example:


leicvsoton.GIF


But....the 0-0 Correct score Lay is around 19.00...so too high for consideration.

Thanks for the analysis ! Excellent points !
I did some calculations last night as well as i will be trying to create a spreadsheet which would do all those calcs for me.
Wha do you think his "rating" is based on ?

[wearthefoxhat]

Thanks for the analysis ! Excellent points !
I did some calculations last night as well as i will be trying to create a spreadsheet which would do all those calcs for me.
Wha do you think his "rating" is based on ?

Maybe the Lay price of the 0-0 being in a certain range or the price of the draw not being too low. It has a Book% feel about it. (just guessing)