Premier League Relegation

[LeTiss]

We've seen with the Bundesliga return, that playing behind closed doors seems to negate home advantage.

The relegation dogfight is tight, so we are bound to see some twists and turns

At present Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth are all odds on, with West Ham next at 3.1

There has to be some value here surely? - I reckon 1 of those bottom 3 will escape

Even Saints at 42 is worth a little nibble

[wearthefoxhat]

We've seen with the Bundesliga return, that playing behind closed doors seems to negate home advantage.

The relegation dogfight is tight, so we are bound to see some twists and turns

At present Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth are all odds on, with West Ham next at 3.1

There has to be some value here surely? - I reckon 1 of those bottom 3 will escape

Even Saints at 42 is worth a little nibble

Brighton @3/1 could be value to be relegated as their 5 home games look tricky, this could in turn impact their away performances.

Home Games

Aston Villa
Liverpool
Man City
Man Utd
Newcastle

Southampton should be okay as they have demonstrated better away form all season.

[Headless Chuck]

We've seen with the Bundesliga return, that playing behind closed doors seems to negate home advantage.

The relegation dogfight is tight, so we are bound to see some twists and turns

At present Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth are all odds on, with West Ham next at 3.1

There has to be some value here surely? - I reckon 1 of those bottom 3 will escape

Even Saints at 42 is worth a little nibble

Just as a general comment I think this will be the first season I can remember where any team that does end up relegated can consider themselves a little unfortunate. None have really played badly, imploded, or become hoplessly cut adrift. For a long time I thought Newcastle were going to go and I wouldn't have shed any tears but they had a mid season bout of good fortune sufficient to see them safe.

[Euler]

Even Saints at 42 is worth a little nibble

Wash your mouth out!

[Euler]

Apart from Saints, whose home form has been dreadful. I'd be tempted to back some teams that are close and have lots of competitive home fixtures left.

[LeTiss]

I've washed my mouth out!

wearthefoxhat makes a good point about Brighton. They look real value

[gazuty]

I've washed my mouth out!

wearthefoxhat makes a good point about Brighton. They look real value

If I a remember correctly someone did a PhD on the topic of home ground advantage. Basically it came down to crowd noise pressure on referees and linesmen.

In Australian football it’s called “the noise of affirmation” and the lack of crowd noise will definitely factor in results for the rest of the Australian rules season.

[LeTiss]

Interesting stuff, gazuty

I think there's something in that, just look at the Bundesliga

28 matches played

Home Wins = 5
Away Wins = 13
Draws = 10

[ShaunWhite]

Even Saints at 42 is worth a little nibble

Wash your mouth out!

I actually really enjoyed my football again when Saints were fighting for promotion in League Two.

Be careful what you wish for.

[LeTiss]

I'm back onto one of my favourite markets

I am drawn to the price of Brighton....BIG TIME
Burnley and Newcastle are shorter prices, despite having more points than them. You could hardly say Brighton are just having a dodgy spell - this is what they are, bottom 6 relegation fighters. They have won 2 from 17, only West Brom and Sheff Utd have won fewer

They are massively overpriced at 4.5

[verance]

I'm back onto one of my favourite markets

I am drawn to the price of Brighton....BIG TIME
Burnley and Newcastle are shorter prices, despite having more points than them. You could hardly say Brighton are just having a dodgy spell - this is what they are, bottom 6 relegation fighters. They have won 2 from 17, only West Brom and Sheff Utd have won fewer

They are massively overpriced at 4.5

Brighton are the biggest outliers based on xG models this season - based on xG, they've been the 6th best team this season!

I'm not sure how much stock to put in those models but might help explain the price.

xG.jpg