Lately really taken a look at the lay the draw strategy as my go to strategy for Football and option to automate for the new season when I get BetAngel software in the near future. However, first want to clearly define my complete strategy.
I am pretty confident about my entry points pre-match. However, struggling a bit on determining what the ideal exit point would be if no goal is scored. Could be based on time played in a match, chances of o0.5, odds of the draw, etc. (although they all relate). I am aware that is all pans down to the win/loss ratio, but struggling to get a grip on determining that ideal point. Anyone that can provide me with some pointers? Have done some analysis on average times a first goal is being scored, etc. and that has shown some interesting things but having some issues comparing that data to some late goals and the pay-off and getting the puzzle solved...
Lay the draw exit point
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CallumPerry
- Posts: 575
- Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
- Location: Wolverhampton
How much of your stake do you expect to see returned each time you get a match right?
Say you're looking at a £10 and you seek to have £2 profit, your loss could be at £2. 1:1 ratio. You may want it to be half of that so every time you win, you earn £2, whenever you lose you lose £1 but obviously the stop loss would be tighter and you could miss a few opportunities so things quickly become complex. What I'm saying though is perhaps you would benefit from thinking about it in terms of %'s.
Another component to consider also is tick sizes. Your potential profit/loss will be more steady with lower prices but as the tick increments get larger... hopefully some food for thought.
Say you're looking at a £10 and you seek to have £2 profit, your loss could be at £2. 1:1 ratio. You may want it to be half of that so every time you win, you earn £2, whenever you lose you lose £1 but obviously the stop loss would be tighter and you could miss a few opportunities so things quickly become complex. What I'm saying though is perhaps you would benefit from thinking about it in terms of %'s.
Another component to consider also is tick sizes. Your potential profit/loss will be more steady with lower prices but as the tick increments get larger... hopefully some food for thought.
This might be an out of the ordinary question, but it would help me out very much in the defining of my strategy.. As I only have my work laptop (my own broke down) on which I can't install any own software, I am currently unable to install BetAngel on that. Therefore I am also unable to use the soccer mystic tool, which would come in very handy in the calculations I am currently making for the defining of my strategy. Could anyone provide me with the following information for the leicester - chelsea match of tonight:
- Predicted price draw when 0-0 at half time.
- Predicted price draw when 0-0 at 60min.
Feel free to provide the info in PM if that has the preference. It would really help me out!
- Predicted price draw when 0-0 at half time.
- Predicted price draw when 0-0 at 60min.
Feel free to provide the info in PM if that has the preference. It would really help me out!
NickH wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:19 pmThis might be an out of the ordinary question, but it would help me out very much in the defining of my strategy.. As I only have my work laptop (my own broke down) on which I can't install any own software, I am currently unable to install BetAngel on that. Therefore I am also unable to use the soccer mystic tool, which would come in very handy in the calculations I am currently making for the defining of my strategy. Could anyone provide me with the following information for the leicester - chelsea match of tonight:
- Predicted price draw when 0-0 at half time.
- Predicted price draw when 0-0 at 60min.
Feel free to provide the info in PM if that has the preference. It would really help me out!
Based on starting odds of around 3.75
HT = 2.54
60 mins = 2.04
Thank you very much Dallas! That provides me some rough guiding!Dallas wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:00 pmNickH wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:19 pmThis might be an out of the ordinary question, but it would help me out very much in the defining of my strategy.. As I only have my work laptop (my own broke down) on which I can't install any own software, I am currently unable to install BetAngel on that. Therefore I am also unable to use the soccer mystic tool, which would come in very handy in the calculations I am currently making for the defining of my strategy. Could anyone provide me with the following information for the leicester - chelsea match of tonight:
- Predicted price draw when 0-0 at half time.
- Predicted price draw when 0-0 at 60min.
Feel free to provide the info in PM if that has the preference. It would really help me out!
Based on starting odds of around 3.75
HT = 2.54
60 mins = 2.04
This is actually a very interesting one which I will take a look at now. Defined the ideal exit point thanks to Dallas his information. Now back to the drawing board in the coming days to take a look at match selection. My first thoughts and analysis on close matches with x chance of goals did not provide me with the required average profit after a goal being scored, so will have to take a real deep dive in other scenario’s... and I think you give a nice hint, thank you for that.CallumPerry wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:24 pmAnother component to consider also is tick sizes. Your potential profit/loss will be more steady with lower prices but as the tick increments get larger... hopefully some food for thought.
Anyone with other tips / pointers / directions? I focus on initiating the trade pre match and have identified the parameters to play with, but am currently struggling with defining the optimal values of them.
You could use a VPNNickH wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:19 pmThis might be an out of the ordinary question, but it would help me out very much in the defining of my strategy.. As I only have my work laptop (my own broke down) on which I can't install any own software, I am currently unable to install BetAngel on that. Therefore I am also unable to use the soccer mystic tool, which would come in very handy in the calculations I am currently making for the defining of my strategy. Could anyone provide me with the following information for the leicester - chelsea match of tonight:
- Predicted price draw when 0-0 at half time.
- Predicted price draw when 0-0 at 60min.
Feel free to provide the info in PM if that has the preference. It would really help me out!