How do you know when to scale up?

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

Over the last couple of months, I've decided to test and record a specific strategy where I watch a game, typically from 30th minute or so, for about 15 mins (sometimes much less), and then decide if it's value to bet on 2 more goals to be scored. I don't use any stats or historical data, I just watch the game and decide upon seeing the game's characteristics. I typically enter the market around half time, but sometimes much earlier or much later. It's simple "bet and forget" strategy.

I have recorded 119 matches, out of which I have won 60 bets, which imply just over 50% probability. My average odds taken were 2.25, which imply 44% probability and imply that I should have only won 52.8 times.

So thus far I *think* I have an edge. My questions:

1. Given my data above, how do I calculate my edge? I looked around and I don't seem able to find a formula for it.

2. I am betting with low stakes and it's boring. I want to start making decent money from it. Is my sample sufficient to be pretty confident that my "game reading" is decent enough to scale up significantly and increases my stakes by roughly 5-6 times?

3. A general question to all you "hunch" footie gamblers: how quickly did you decide to scale up? Given that your trades / bets were executed just by watching the game rather than using detailed stats, what made you feel confident that in fact, you have an advantage over the market?

4. I watch the game and try to estimate what the odds should be using prior experience / intuition. What sort of difference do you guys look for between your "perceived odds" and the actual market odds before entering a trade? In other words, say I think the price on 2 more goals to be scored should be 2.1. The market says 2.16. Do you advise me to get involved, or wait for an opportunity where the market gives bigger odds, like 2.4 ?

Thanks in advance.
TraderFred
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

Sounds like you are doing well.

Just carry on doing what you are doing, keep collecting data, and you will be able to answer all those questions yourself.

As for scaling up just let it happen naturally. Dont be in any rush, let your bank grow, then just scale up as you feel comfortable. The more data you collect, the more games you play, the more confident you will feel in your edge and in raising your stakes.
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

This is what you seek - https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

You haven’t done enough trials. At a probability of 0.44 in 119 trials there is a 93.3% probability of getting 60 or fewer right. And a conversely a 6.6% chance of correctly getting 60 or more right.
Last edited by gazuty on Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:31 am, edited 3 times in total.
Anbell
Posts: 2006
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Alexander_99 wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:34 pm
Over the last couple of months, I've decided to test and record a specific strategy where I watch a game, typically from 30th minute or so, for about 15 mins (sometimes much less), and then decide if it's value to bet on 2 more goals to be scored. I don't use any stats or historical data, I just watch the game and decide upon seeing the game's characteristics. I typically enter the market around half time, but sometimes much earlier or much later. It's simple "bet and forget" strategy.

I have recorded 119 matches, out of which I have won 60 bets, which imply just over 50% probability. My average odds taken were 2.25, which imply 44% probability and imply that I should have only won 52.8 times.

So thus far I *think* I have an edge. My questions:

1. Given my data above, how do I calculate my edge? I looked around and I don't seem able to find a formula for it.

2. I am betting with low stakes and it's boring. I want to start making decent money from it. Is my sample sufficient to be pretty confident that my "game reading" is decent enough to scale up significantly and increases my stakes by roughly 5-6 times?

3. A general question to all you "hunch" footie gamblers: how quickly did you decide to scale up? Given that your trades / bets were executed just by watching the game rather than using detailed stats, what made you feel confident that in fact, you have an advantage over the market?

4. I watch the game and try to estimate what the odds should be using prior experience / intuition. What sort of difference do you guys look for between your "perceived odds" and the actual market odds before entering a trade? In other words, say I think the price on 2 more goals to be scored should be 2.1. The market says 2.16. Do you advise me to get involved, or wait for an opportunity where the market gives bigger odds, like 2.4 ?

Thanks in advance.
Try this article
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... le-returns

And this book by the same guy for a bit more elaboration
How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar: The Truth about Sports Tipsters

Regarding Q4, try this https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/staking-kelly-criterion/

As a general matter, I don't think anyone would advise to increase your stakes by 500% overnight, unless you have been using small stakes just to test your strategy.

Good luck.
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firlandsfarm
Posts: 2688
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

Hi Alexander, the "when to scale up" conundrum! Frequently asked and frequently answered, differently. :shock:

My view is, you started with a betting bank you decided you could afford to lose if it all went tits-up, yes? If you now upscale because you think life is good then you are effectively increasing the size of the bank you can afford to lose or if it does go tits-up then you will be breaking your bank sooner. So you need to ask those questions of yourself.

My answer to those questions is to only use your profit for upscaling. That way you maintain the distance before you break your bank and if you do you only 'lose' what you initially decided you could afford to lose. And do it in chunks, not daily or more frequently as the X% of your betting bank schemes will suggest. Your betting bank will fluctuate so I would say review no more frequently than monthly and maybe quarterly or half yearly. On some of my systems I re-evaluate the staking yearly.

As for your specific questions …

1. I'm not sure how I would use an "edge" figure but if I wanted it I would say my "edge" is the amount by which I have beaten the market so in your case it's (60 - 52.8)/52.8 = 13.6%. Others might have a different view.

2. Do you have back data you can test your system against to see if your live experience matches what you may have expected from that back data? If you search online for "Excel monte carlo simulation" (assuming you have Excel) you will find lots of help on how to model not just against the historical data as it came out but also how it performs against the data randomly re-arranged to test losing runs etc. The results going forward may be the same but will not be in the same order.

3. and 4. Not my bag, sorry. :(

I hope that helps.
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MemphisFlash
Posts: 2127
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

Just so you know "Bet and forget" is not trading, it is gambling!!!
If you are willing to lose your entire stake on one event it is Gambling.
The clue is in your description "Bet".
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firlandsfarm
Posts: 2688
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

MemphisFlash wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:35 am
Just so you know "Bet and forget" is not trading, it is gambling!!!
If you are willing to lose your entire stake on one event it is Gambling.
The clue is in your description "Bet".
Memphis, "Bet and forget" in itself does not have to be gambling. The difference between gambling and betting are discussed here. They are defined as "Gambling is … an activity that is based upon chance or luck and has nothing to do with the skills of a person" such as using a pin to pick your selection whereas "Betting is predicting the outcome of a future event and placing a wage on that outcome" such as using an element of skill when predicting that outcome. When someone assesses the chances of all outcomes whether it is who will win in the case of a bet and forget activity or whether a price will rise or fall in the short term as in trading they are both betting. :)
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Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

MemphisFlash wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:35 am
Just so you know "Bet and forget" is not trading, it is gambling!!!
If you are willing to lose your entire stake on one event it is Gambling.
The clue is in your description "Bet".
Amazing insight

And to the OP that isn't enough data imo, and lets say if the strategy does slightly worse than break even, or even if it did break even from now on then those increased stakes will quickly wipe those profits you had.
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

Hello everyone

First of all, I have read everyone's responses carefully and have taken them on board - thank you. I decided for now to carry on testing with low stakes, however I'll probably scale up soon (although not by 500% as originally planned).

Since my original post, I have recorded 42 further trades, taking the total to 161. Out of those 42, 20 were won. So in total thus far I won 80 / 161 bets, with average odds so far at 2.26. This means I am still beating the market odds for the moment . The experiment is to be continued...
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

Updating this thread. To date, I have tested this strategy on 590 matches and won on 310 of them. Profits still growing.
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Alexander_99 wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:20 am
Updating this thread. To date, I have tested this strategy on 590 matches and won on 310 of them. Profits still growing.
Good work, based on those results and calculation below, I would say edge near enough to proven.


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PoppoRocknroll
Posts: 1
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:55 pm

Alexander_99 wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:34 pm
Over the last couple of months, I've decided to test and record a specific strategy where I watch a game, typically from 30th minute or so, for about 15 mins (sometimes much less), and then decide if it's value to bet on 2 more goals to be scored. I don't use any stats or historical data, I just watch the game and decide upon seeing the game's characteristics. I typically enter the market around half time, but sometimes much earlier or much later. It's simple "bet and forget" strategy.

I have recorded 119 matches, out of which I have won 60 bets, which imply just over 50% probability. My average odds taken were 2.25, which imply 44% probability and imply that I should have only won 52.8 times.

So thus far I *think* I have an edge. My questions:

1. Given my data above, how do I calculate my edge? I looked around and I don't seem able to find a formula for it.

2. I am betting with low stakes and it's boring. I want to start making decent money from it. Is my sample sufficient to be pretty confident that my "game reading" is decent enough to scale up significantly and increases my stakes by roughly 5-6 times?

3. A general question to all you "hunch" footie gamblers: how quickly did you decide to scale up? Given that your trades / bets were executed just by watching the game rather than using detailed stats, what made you feel confident that in fact, you have an advantage over the market?

4. I watch the game and try to estimate what the odds should be using prior experience / intuition. What sort of difference do you guys look for between your "perceived odds" and the actual market odds before entering a trade? In other words, say I think the price on 2 more goals to be scored should be 2.1. The market says 2.16. Do you advise me to get involved, or wait for an opportunity where the market gives bigger odds, like 2.4 ?

Thanks in advance.
Hello!
I'm pursuing an analogous strategy but unfortunately I have a strike rate of just 41% and I'm struggling to improve it. I swing around the 0, sometimes I have bad runs and sometimes I get good results in a row. Lucky to say, I often find good odds (ranging from 2 to 2.30) but can't profit properly :(

Can you tell me more about your choice of matches?

Thanks in advance :)
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