How do you know when to scale up?

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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gazuty
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Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Alexander_99 wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:20 am
Updating this thread. To date, I have tested this strategy on 590 matches and won on 310 of them. Profits still growing.
Good work, based on those results and calculation below, I would say edge near enough to proven.


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PoppoRocknroll
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Alexander_99 wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:34 pm
Over the last couple of months, I've decided to test and record a specific strategy where I watch a game, typically from 30th minute or so, for about 15 mins (sometimes much less), and then decide if it's value to bet on 2 more goals to be scored. I don't use any stats or historical data, I just watch the game and decide upon seeing the game's characteristics. I typically enter the market around half time, but sometimes much earlier or much later. It's simple "bet and forget" strategy.

I have recorded 119 matches, out of which I have won 60 bets, which imply just over 50% probability. My average odds taken were 2.25, which imply 44% probability and imply that I should have only won 52.8 times.

So thus far I *think* I have an edge. My questions:

1. Given my data above, how do I calculate my edge? I looked around and I don't seem able to find a formula for it.

2. I am betting with low stakes and it's boring. I want to start making decent money from it. Is my sample sufficient to be pretty confident that my "game reading" is decent enough to scale up significantly and increases my stakes by roughly 5-6 times?

3. A general question to all you "hunch" footie gamblers: how quickly did you decide to scale up? Given that your trades / bets were executed just by watching the game rather than using detailed stats, what made you feel confident that in fact, you have an advantage over the market?

4. I watch the game and try to estimate what the odds should be using prior experience / intuition. What sort of difference do you guys look for between your "perceived odds" and the actual market odds before entering a trade? In other words, say I think the price on 2 more goals to be scored should be 2.1. The market says 2.16. Do you advise me to get involved, or wait for an opportunity where the market gives bigger odds, like 2.4 ?

Thanks in advance.
Hello!
I'm pursuing an analogous strategy but unfortunately I have a strike rate of just 41% and I'm struggling to improve it. I swing around the 0, sometimes I have bad runs and sometimes I get good results in a row. Lucky to say, I often find good odds (ranging from 2 to 2.30) but can't profit properly :(

Can you tell me more about your choice of matches?

Thanks in advance :)
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