Expected goal

[JakubStefanik]

Hello,

first of all, what worked for you best in counting xG of the match, I just moved to football a few weeks ago and I am trying to create few strategies. I usually take last 5matches h/a for both teams, is that too low ?
Also, I wanted to ask what else can you count if you have xG of the match, I have seen peters video and I know you can figure out with xG how probable is that match finish 0-0 but I believe there is more. If you know about math book on this topic or it is already somewhere in this forum let me know.

Thanks, guys!

[wearthefoxhat]

Hello,

first of all, what worked for you best in counting xG of the match, I just moved to football a few weeks ago and I am trying to create few strategies. I usually take last 5matches h/a for both teams, is that too low ?
Also, I wanted to ask what else can you count if you have xG of the match, I have seen peters video and I know you can figure out with xG how probable is that match finish 0-0 but I believe there is more. If you know about math book on this topic or it is already somewhere in this forum let me know.

Thanks, guys!

Last 5 games on it's own can give you a snapshot of a teams ongoing form.

I'd probably start with last 3 games, and store each further game up to, say, 10, and plot the rolling averages on a graph. That way you can see if the team is progressing or regressing, comparing the For/Against Xg stats.

[JakubStefanik]

Last 5 games on it's own can give you a snapshot of a teams ongoing form.

I'd probably start with last 3 games, and store each further game up to, say, 10, and plot the rolling averages on a graph. That way you can see if the team is progressing or regressing, comparing the For/Against Xg stats.

amazing that makes so much sense teach me senpai and I mean it

[wearthefoxhat]

Last 5 games on it's own can give you a snapshot of a teams ongoing form.

I'd probably start with last 3 games, and store each further game up to, say, 10, and plot the rolling averages on a graph. That way you can see if the team is progressing or regressing, comparing the For/Against Xg stats.

amazing that makes so much sense teach me senpai and I mean it

Something like.

Last 3 games (ave) - 2.13/1.73

Arsenal1.jpg

Last 4 games (ave) - 2.20/1.45

Arsenal2.jpg

Before you add new data (most recent game), move the scores up. When averages update, you can see progress, or not.

[JakubStefanik]

Something like.

Last 3 games (ave) - 2.13/1.73

Arsenal1.jpg


Last 4 games (ave) - 2.20/1.45

Arsenal2.jpg

Before you add new data (most recent game), move the scores up. When averages update, you can see progress, or not.

i was just going to do some test spreadsheet, do you use peters formula for xG? meaning from his video

[wearthefoxhat]

Something like.

Last 3 games (ave) - 2.13/1.73

Arsenal1.jpg


Last 4 games (ave) - 2.20/1.45

Arsenal2.jpg

Before you add new data (most recent game), move the scores up. When averages update, you can see progress, or not.

i was just going to do some test spreadsheet, do you use peters formula for xG? meaning from his video

No, just use the infogol website for the Xg info.

https://www.infogol.net/en