sure the big leagues are more efficient but because „professional quant teams“ make up some of the market doesnt mean the price is accurateAlexander_99 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:33 pmThere are plenty of websites, some free and some subscription only (like goal profits) that provide all sorts of historical data that apparently enable people to bet / trade only based on this historical data, e.g. "Team A are playing team B and Team A have scored 80% of the time in the first 30 mins while Team B have conceded 60% of the time in the first 30 mins, so "I'll bet on over 0.5 goals in first half" type of thing. But surely all these stats are already accounted for in the available odds? So why do people get an edge from such "publicly" available data? I understand that this could be possible if one watches the live game as well, but plenty of websites (like the one I mentioned above) claim that watching the game is unnecessary. My guess that this approach only could work in some obscure lower division leagues where the pre-match odds are not as heavily modelled by professional quant teams?
lot of stats are garbage and will just mess up your model its about working out what actually matters
football is extremely low scoring so any stats like first 30 minute goals will have high variance factor
how many matches you want to go back, you think 50 matches back with different players, coach, tactics is relevant?
if a team scored double in the first quarter compared to the second it might be an indicator that they like to press from the start but you think they created double chances or double dangerous attacks? or generally change their appoach after 20 minutes and start sitting back? these stats are 90% random
a team might have averaged less goals in the first half but still has a higher % scored at least once, whats more important? average scored
what if the coach decides to change tactics and press with a high defensive line from the start because he thinks its the better tactic against a certain team, definitely your model price based on past statistics is going to be wrong.
there is a guy called psychoff that has been doing very well on football, he claims to ignore statistics completely and purely base his price on if its an open game and both teams are keen to score or happy to sit back
im sure player quality of offense/defense is important but tactics/approach of a team can change from match to match so difficult to model
