Why do people get an edge from historical data?

[sniffer66]

Or couple that historical data with what you are seeing happening in-play

From a tennis perspective, history data shows you that player A recovers from a break down, 1st set 70% of the time against an opponent with Player B's serve\break retention stats. The in play data tells you Player A is serving well, has scored x points\earned BP's against Player B's serve in previous games, and shows no sign of injury\disinterest. That gives you a level of confidence to make the entry. It's arming yourself with as much information as possible to give you a reason to trade.

Further to that, I'm pretty sure Team Profit has an inplay stat module and the advice is to use that in conjunction with the historical data. Not been a member for ages though.

[shakey1964]

As Atho55 says you can make an assessment of the data and thus make an informed decision. Any pay to look website will claim consistant profits but perhaps the raw data is not enough and further digging is neccessary.
The "soccerstats" timing percentages are complete gobbledygook to me so I made my own which I nearly understand

[Atho55]

Once you have done the spade work you can take the optimum positions from your dataset and use this information to test recent data against. This uses a single Promo sheet

Promo.jpg

Data from this is fed into the decision engine

Engine.jpg

which in turn throws out a set of instructions

Output.jpg

With this game the only limit you have is your own imagination

[goat68]

So why have all that historical data if its no use to anybody?

A model can give you an idea of what the odds of something should be, because of crowd mentality the actual offered odds may have value due to over reactions and crowd following. If you can spot this value, then you have an advantage...

[alexmr2]

People get an edge because they have spent thousands of hours in the markets which gives them a small advantage over the 99% of others who are not as well practised, allowing them to take some of the inefficiencies

[rik]

There are plenty of websites, some free and some subscription only (like goal profits) that provide all sorts of historical data that apparently enable people to bet / trade only based on this historical data, e.g. "Team A are playing team B and Team A have scored 80% of the time in the first 30 mins while Team B have conceded 60% of the time in the first 30 mins, so "I'll bet on over 0.5 goals in first half" type of thing. But surely all these stats are already accounted for in the available odds? So why do people get an edge from such "publicly" available data? I understand that this could be possible if one watches the live game as well, but plenty of websites (like the one I mentioned above) claim that watching the game is unnecessary. My guess that this approach only could work in some obscure lower division leagues where the pre-match odds are not as heavily modelled by professional quant teams?

sure the big leagues are more efficient but because „professional quant teams“ make up some of the market doesnt mean the price is accurate
lot of stats are garbage and will just mess up your model its about working out what actually matters
football is extremely low scoring so any stats like first 30 minute goals will have high variance factor
how many matches you want to go back, you think 50 matches back with different players, coach, tactics is relevant?
if a team scored double in the first quarter compared to the second it might be an indicator that they like to press from the start but you think they created double chances or double dangerous attacks? or generally change their appoach after 20 minutes and start sitting back? these stats are 90% random
a team might have averaged less goals in the first half but still has a higher % scored at least once, whats more important? average scored
what if the coach decides to change tactics and press with a high defensive line from the start because he thinks its the better tactic against a certain team, definitely your model price based on past statistics is going to be wrong.
there is a guy called psychoff that has been doing very well on football, he claims to ignore statistics completely and purely base his price on if its an open game and both teams are keen to score or happy to sit back
im sure player quality of offense/defense is important but tactics/approach of a team can change from match to match so difficult to model

[Alexander_99]

Double post

[Alexander_99]

There are plenty of websites, some free and some subscription only (like goal profits) that provide all sorts of historical data that apparently enable people to bet / trade only based on this historical data, e.g. "Team A are playing team B and Team A have scored 80% of the time in the first 30 mins while Team B have conceded 60% of the time in the first 30 mins, so "I'll bet on over 0.5 goals in first half" type of thing. But surely all these stats are already accounted for in the available odds? So why do people get an edge from such "publicly" available data? I understand that this could be possible if one watches the live game as well, but plenty of websites (like the one I mentioned above) claim that watching the game is unnecessary. My guess that this approach only could work in some obscure lower division leagues where the pre-match odds are not as heavily modelled by professional quant teams?

sure the big leagues are more efficient but because „professional quant teams“ make up some of the market doesnt mean the price is accurate
lot of stats are garbage and will just mess up your model its about working out what actually matters
football is extremely low scoring so any stats like first 30 minute goals will have high variance factor
how many matches you want to go back, you think 50 matches back with different players, coach, tactics is relevant?
if a team scored double in the first quarter compared to the second it might be an indicator that they like to press from the start but you think they created double chances or double dangerous attacks? or generally change their appoach after 20 minutes and start sitting back? these stats are 90% random
a team might have averaged less goals in the first half but still has a higher % scored at least once, whats more important? average scored
what if the coach decides to change tactics and press with a high defensive line from the start because he thinks its the better tactic against a certain team, definitely your model price based on past statistics is going to be wrong.
there is a guy called psychoff that has been doing very well on football, he claims to ignore statistics completely and purely base his price on if its an open game and both teams are keen to score or happy to sit back
im sure player quality of offense/defense is important but tactics/approach of a team can change from match to match so difficult to model

Yes, I have learnt a lot of things from Psychoff and have used Psychoff's general approach to a great extent for my own trades. Hence my question in the first place. Because I am wondering if my (and Psychoff's) approach that is purely based on watching the game could somehow be mimicked by simply looking at data.

[dropss81]

Hello
Related to this subject... What horse is considerate favourite at the beginning of a race?

The one with the highest amount matched from posting time of the race till the beginning of race
The one with the lowest price at the begging of race (Betfair SP)
The one with the lowest price at the posting time of the race.

Why I'm asking this?... because I understood from Peter 33% of times The Favourite wins the race.. So I'm confused (I don't trust this Punters who are commenting only to do noise) what features/details makes a horse to be "called" favourite.

Thanks

[Dallas]

Hello
Related to this subject... What horse is considerate favourite at the beginning of a race?

The one with the highest amount matched from posting time of the race till the beginning of race
The one with the lowest price at the begging of race (Betfair SP)
The one with the lowest price at the posting time of the race.

Why I'm asking this?... because I understood from Peter 33% of times The Favourite wins the race.. So I'm confused (I don't trust this Punters who are commenting only to do noise) what features/details makes a horse to be "called" favourite.

Thanks

In the context of what Peter was talking about its the fav by SP

[dropss81]

And outside of Peter's context ...I mean of market context..what horse is fav?
My question is : When I'm looking at a market what things would make me consider a horse is favourite ( It doesn't mean I will trade that horse no matter what) It will help me to decide if to trade that market / that horse.

Thanks

[Anbell]

And outside of Peter's context ...I mean of market context..what horse is fav?
My question is : When I'm looking at a market what things would make me consider a horse is favourite ( It doesn't mean I will trade that horse no matter what) It will help me to decide if to trade that market / that horse.

Thanks

The favourite by definition is the horse with the lowest price.

This can change over time, of course.