What causes volatility in goal markets?

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Alexander_99
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So I just finished trading Fenerbahce vs Goztepe match, and I noticed there was huge volatility in under / over goal markets in the 2nd half. Many times during the 2nd half, the odds would instantaneously jump up and down, by as much as a dozen ticks or more. I noticed this effect in matches before too, it tends to occur sometimes in "open" games, where the game tends to rapidly swing from one side of the pitch to another. Also, I had a look at Betfair price chart, and noticed large stakes of money coming into the market at these times.

So what are the market mechanisms that cause this volatility? Is this due to the characteristics of the game, or the "market itself" - i.e. traders with deep pockets like Psychoff putting in large orders at appropriate times? Something else? And I don't suppose anyone here (if knowledgeable) give an idea as to how one might take advantage of this?
Last edited by Alexander_99 on Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jamesedwards
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Don't know the answer but one consideration could be people with faster pictures or 'pitch-siding'. With a 6 second delay you can't make money by trading goals but you potentially can by trading in and out of positions during attacks, particularly towards the end of the game when goals are more likely and markets fluctuate more rapidly.
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Derek27
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Surely it's just down to swings of play from dangerous-looking attacks to passive midfield passing?
Alexander_99
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:40 pm
Surely it's just down to swings of play from dangerous-looking attacks to passive midfield passing?
Yes, partly, but this can't be the only cause...Because otherwise this volatility would occur in majority of matches. Sure, the odds rise / fall by a tick or two (even quite a few more) when a corner or a dangerous free kick is taken, but that's not what I meant. When I say volatility, I refer to situations when odds instantaneously jump by a LOT, and these instances don't occur in every game. So under odds could be 1.41... then they instantly jump to 1.55 and then instantly drop down to 1.43... something like this. So you can essentially get nearly "risk-free" trades when these volatile markets appear. Yes, it seems to be related to dangerous attacks, but only in part...

In fact, I noticed that this effects tend to occur in "certain" games / certain leagues (those who have traded a lot of footie, will probably know what leagues / matches I am referring to). Maybe

Psychoff referred to this effect quite a few times (see this for example https://twitter.com/psychofftrading/sta ... 0861290496), but I don't understand how he specifically trades it or where does this volatility originate from.

P.S. Out of interest did you follow the Fenerbache game? Then you'd have seen what I mean...
Last edited by Alexander_99 on Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:13 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Alexander_99
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jameegray1 wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:33 pm
Don't know the answer but one consideration could be people with faster pictures or 'pitch-siding'. With a 6 second delay you can't make money by trading goals but you potentially can by trading in and out of positions during attacks, particularly towards the end of the game when goals are more likely and markets fluctuate more rapidly.
I thought the fastest pictures are Betfair's own live streams? Or can you get faster ones?
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Derek27
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Alexander_99 wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:57 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:40 pm
Surely it's just down to swings of play from dangerous-looking attacks to passive midfield passing?
Yes, partly, but this can't be the only cause...Because otherwise this volatility would occur in majority of matches. Sure, the odds rise / fall by a tick or two (even quite a few more) when a corner or a dangerous free kick is taken, but that's not what I meant. When I say volatility, I refer to situations when odds instantaneously jump by a LOT, and these instances don't occur in every game. So under odds could be 1.41... then they instantly jump to 1.55 and then instantly drop down to 1.43... something like this. So you can essentially get nearly "risk-free" trades when these volatile markets appear. Yes, it seems to be related to dangerous attacks, but only in part...

In fact, I noticed that this effects tend to occur in "certain" games / certain leagues (those who have traded a lot of footie, will probably know what leagues / matches I am referring to). Maybe

Psychoff referred to this effect quite a few times (see this for example https://twitter.com/psychofftrading/sta ... 0861290496), but I don't understand how he specifically trades it or where does this volatility originate from.

P.S. Out of interest did you follow the Fenerbache game? Then you'd have seen what I mean...
I wish he could hold his camera still or use screen recording software. ;)

I should point out that I'm new to football trading. I've traded a lot of South American and lower leagues and find them illiquid and volatile. From my limited experience of trading the bigger matches, I find the amount of money reduces that - there's usually someone willing to back 2 ticks away instead of 6 ticks, and I'm guessing there will be people who want to get out of the market even if it means throwing away a few ticks.

(I tried to trade the Spurs match but the first-minute goal before I could enter the market suffered my strategy). :)
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jamesedwards
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Alexander_99 wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:03 pm
jameegray1 wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:33 pm
Don't know the answer but one consideration could be people with faster pictures or 'pitch-siding'. With a 6 second delay you can't make money by trading goals but you potentially can by trading in and out of positions during attacks, particularly towards the end of the game when goals are more likely and markets fluctuate more rapidly.
I thought the fastest pictures are Betfair's own live streams? Or can you get faster ones?
Betfair streams are often the fastest bookmaker streams, but best to always assume there are people with faster pics; either raw feeds from the ground, or facetiming, or just trading from the ground itself.
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Euler
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It's commonly known on all sports that people are using fast pictures to jump in front of other people in the market.

If you can get a big enough dish you can probably get a raw feed, the feed that is sent to the production studio and that will be ahead of all other feeds. The studio processes it and sends it out again and down to be stream over the internet (generally)

The problem you have is that people try and anticipate action leading up to a goal to get in front of each other so the market swings back and forth as people think there is a going to be a game-changing event. More extreme volatility probably means more people using fast pictures.

There is a general flaw with this strategy though, as almost certainly somebody will have faster pictures than you. It's a technical battle not a skill or market knowledge battle.
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Morbius
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Euler wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:12 am
It's commonly known on all sports that people are using fast pictures to jump in front of other people in the market.

If you can get a big enough dish you can probably get a raw feed, the feed that is sent to the production studio and that will be ahead of all other feeds. The studio processes it and sends it out again and down to be stream over the internet (generally)

The problem you have is that people try and anticipate action leading up to a goal to get in front of each other so the market swings back and forth as people think there is a going to be a game-changing event. More extreme volatility probably means more people using fast pictures.

There is a general flaw with this strategy though, as almost certainly somebody will have faster pictures than you. It's a technical battle not a skill or market knowledge battle.

Agree...the system isn't robust if you try to mimic it and thus its shelf life is limited. I recall years ago back in the dark ages there were people making money based on the betting firms not realising the difference in time zones with regards to football matches in Russia, how far we have come :D

Someone will always be faster than you and speed isn't an avenue that anyone should be going down IMO. The "arms race" and HFT's is an example from financial markets. Look up Haim Bodek on Youtube. There is only room for one person to sit on a throne and even when you get to sit in it, people are planning to drag you out of it.
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jamesedwards
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Morbius wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:15 pm
Euler wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:12 am
It's commonly known on all sports that people are using fast pictures to jump in front of other people in the market.

If you can get a big enough dish you can probably get a raw feed, the feed that is sent to the production studio and that will be ahead of all other feeds. The studio processes it and sends it out again and down to be stream over the internet (generally)

The problem you have is that people try and anticipate action leading up to a goal to get in front of each other so the market swings back and forth as people think there is a going to be a game-changing event. More extreme volatility probably means more people using fast pictures.

There is a general flaw with this strategy though, as almost certainly somebody will have faster pictures than you. It's a technical battle not a skill or market knowledge battle.

Agree...the system isn't robust if you try to mimic it and thus its shelf life is limited. I recall years ago back in the dark ages there were people making money based on the betting firms not realising the difference in time zones with regards to football matches in Russia, how far we have come :D

Someone will always be faster than you and speed isn't an avenue that anyone should be going down IMO. The "arms race" and HFT's is an example from financial markets. Look up Haim Bodek on Youtube. There is only room for one person to sit on a throne and even when you get to sit in it, people are planning to drag you out of it.
I remember putting bets on as goals were scored with an online bookie in Euro 2000. They wrote me a polite email asking me to stop. :lol:
stueytrader
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Apologies for the historical 'bump' but this post brought back some very fond memories myself.

I recall a lovely period where one could go into a bricks bookies and place coupon bets on matches (get the starting price) when it was actually half-time (maybe even finished, not sure about that one).

I recall backing something at about 2/1 once when the HT score was 2-0, and I'd actually seen that score by looking through a window of Dixons and seeing teletext showing the score - they still paid out, lol

Amazing to think how far we've come since those days....
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Kai
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Never apologize for "necroing" long dead threads, a lot of good genuine market feedback buried on the forum from its inception 👍
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Realrocknrolla
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Kai wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 11:45 am
Never apologize for "necroing" long dead threads, a lot of good genuine market feedback buried on the forum from its inception 👍
Inception!

What a movie 🎥
stueytrader
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Kai wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 11:45 am
Never apologize for "necroing" long dead threads, a lot of good genuine market feedback buried on the forum from its inception 👍
Tis' very true, I actually came across this one while browsing and searching old posts, it's a good practice, as you say a lot good stuff buried on here. Like that film also.
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Kai
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stueytrader wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 12:33 pm
Kai wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 11:45 am
Never apologize for "necroing" long dead threads, a lot of good genuine market feedback buried on the forum from its inception 👍
Tis' very true, I actually came across this one while browsing and searching old posts, it's a good practice, as you say a lot good stuff buried on here. Like that film also.
Well then imho you're asking the right questions in general no matter the markets, volatility and value probably the 2 keywords and topics for me. I remember this thread but I feel such topics of discussion are probably not suitable for a public forum.

But yeah, I guess the markets have many layers to them as well, and are similar to "Inception" in a way :)

Just because threads appear old doesn't mean the topics are any less relevant, they can be brand new to whoever discovers them whenever that may be. After all, the game of trading has been around for ages and most related topics are ancient anyway, besides the minor market nuances that maybe become obsolete once markets evolve over time.
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