90 Day Football Trading Challenge

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

Not many matches today. On Braga vs Maritimo now.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 10415
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Alexander_99 wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:58 pm
Not many matches today. On Braga vs Maritimo now.
I tried to trade an Argentinian Cup match but liquidity was non-existent. Hoping after midnight might be better.
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

Backed over 2.5 at Braga (at 2.04) a min ago. Now the score is 2-1
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:03 pm
Alexander_99 wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:58 pm
Not many matches today. On Braga vs Maritimo now.
I tried to trade an Argentinian Cup match but liquidity was non-existent. Hoping after midnight might be better.
Yeah, I watch Argentinian matches sometimes too, but I often find them unsuitable for my trading style.
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

DAY 5 Update: 5% increase on yesterday's bank. Total growth since day 1: 56%.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 10415
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Alexander_99 wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:51 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:03 pm
Alexander_99 wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:58 pm
Not many matches today. On Braga vs Maritimo now.
I tried to trade an Argentinian Cup match but liquidity was non-existent. Hoping after midnight might be better.
Yeah, I watch Argentinian matches sometimes too, but I often find them unsuitable for my trading style.
As low-liquid matches go, the Chilean Premera is more up my street.
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

DAY 6: 9% loss from yesterday. Hence 42% total profit from day 1.

Increased my stakes today by an average of 40%, and just as luck would have it, had some unlucky losses.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 10415
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Alexander_99 wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:10 am
DAY 6: 9% loss from yesterday. Hence 42% total profit from day 1.

Increased my stakes today by an average of 40%, and just as luck would have it, had some unlucky losses.
That's not being unlucky. You decided to take a gamble and drastically increase your stakes and it wasn't much more than on a coin flip.
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:14 am
Alexander_99 wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:10 am
DAY 6: 9% loss from yesterday. Hence 42% total profit from day 1.

Increased my stakes today by an average of 40%, and just as luck would have it, had some unlucky losses.
That's not being unlucky. You decided to take a gamble and drastically increase your stakes and it wasn't much more than on a coin flip.
I increased my stakes roughly in line with increased bank. Since my bank grew by over 50%, it made sense to increase stakes accordingly.

Regarding luck, or lack thereof. Majority of my incurred losses came in two matches (that cost me a total of 18% of my bank at the time), and I indeed consider these unlucky, due to the number of chances missed in the games (i.e. hit goal posts etc). Would I have taken these bets again? Thinking back on these, yes, I would, because I am sure of +EV of these bets.

Psychoff does the same thing by the way and encounters a string of unlucky losses (if you have a look at his twitter posts dating back 2-3 years ago, you'll see his explicit comments following his lost goal alerts, for example.)

P.S. In my other thread viewtopic.php?f=6&t=21953, following one particular strategy I've been following for several months now, the longest consecutive string of losses I had was 6 in a row , betting at roughly even odds (or a bit higher). With a fixed stake, This would correspond to taking away 30% of my bank.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 10415
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Alexander_99 wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:21 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:14 am
Alexander_99 wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:10 am
DAY 6: 9% loss from yesterday. Hence 42% total profit from day 1.

Increased my stakes today by an average of 40%, and just as luck would have it, had some unlucky losses.
That's not being unlucky. You decided to take a gamble and drastically increase your stakes and it wasn't much more than on a coin flip.
I increased my stakes roughly in line with increased bank. Since my bank grew by over 50%, it made sense to increase stakes accordingly.

Regarding luck, or lack thereof. Majority of my incurred losses came in two matches (that cost me a total of 18% of my bank at the time), and I indeed consider these unlucky, due to the number of chances missed in the games (i.e. hit goal posts etc). Would I have taken these bets again? Thinking back on these, yes, I would, because I am sure of +EV of these bets.

Psychoff does the same thing by the way and encounters a string of unlucky losses (if you have a look at his twitter posts dating back 2-3 years ago, you'll see his explicit comments following his lost goal alerts, for example.)

P.S. In my other thread viewtopic.php?f=6&t=21953, following one particular strategy I've been following for several months now, the longest consecutive string of losses I had was 6 in a row , betting at roughly even odds (or a bit higher). With a fixed stake, This would correspond to taking away 30% of my bank.
Fair enough, but if you're increasing your bank by 50% quickly and then losing 30-40% of it, it sounds like you may be overstaking or staking disproportionately to your bank. I doubt Psychoff would increase his bank by 50% in a few days. :)
Post Reply

Return to “Football trading”