Soccer Poisson database

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Derek27
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iphoneshoey wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:24 am
Derek27 wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 6:32 pm
I've upgraded the front-end database and Excel template. The setup now has a scoreboard for updating the current score and a countdown timer with a start/stop toggle button (first worksheet only). The prices/probabilities are now based on the Poisson mass function for the time remaining of the game. You can adjust the minutes remaining at any time or take a peek into a future point in the match, like Soccer Mystic. It's not quite the same as SM as the spreadsheet will be ignorant of current prices and purely based on goal expectation. Might be useful for matches that don't have the markets required for SM. :D
Hi very well made, been using it for a bit had some good results
Just wondering have you made any further improvements to it
Thanks
James
No, I've got nothing planned. It was more of an exercise/experiment but I'm glad you find it useful.
asaele
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Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:45 am

Derek27 wrote:
Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:55 pm
When people knock Poisson for football because it underestimates the draw, goals aren't entirely independent of each other, etc. my feelings are that awareness of danger is more important than the danger itself. There's nothing dangerous about a car with worn-out brake pads - it's being unaware that they're worn out that's the danger. :)

Poisson has its uses and limitations for football but I'm sure somebody cleverer than I am will have worked out algorithms to adjust the second half curve where goals are more likely. I might have a go at some point in the future.
I am working on this at the moment. It is a quite complicated task.
Been working with the Poisson distrubtion for modeling prematch odds for a long time. For match odds, the only adjustment needed to match market odds in general is an upwards adjustment of draw probability. On average, the most important "dynamic" in a football game is the fact that less goals are scored when the score is even.

Live is similar, but much more complicated. The pregame goal intensity of each team (expected goals scored in the Poisson distribution) will depend on game state (goals scored to each teams). And how a goal changes each teams goal intensity will again be dependent on several other factors, (whether they were favourites or underdogs prematch, playing at home/away and so on).

With regards to the issue of higher number of goals second half, there is a question how much of this is related to time itself and how much is because the game state is more likely to be something else than draw. But no question there is a big effect on average. The problem is, the average does not give you much info to apply to a specific match.

But very much agree with you Derek, having a Poisson model to calculate live odds is very helpful, as long as you are aware of the limitations of the model. And the limitations in the distribution itself will not be the issue. Finding the right input to the distribution is what matters.
zippus
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Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:19 pm

Excellent piece of kit! Just had a play loading the Bundesliga and am using it to profile a couple of the games.

Thanks for sharing.
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Derek27
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zippus wrote:
Wed Mar 09, 2022 2:50 pm
Excellent piece of kit! Just had a play loading the Bundesliga and am using it to profile a couple of the games.

Thanks for sharing.
Glad you find it useful. I was using it on the Brazilian Serie A league last year, but I quickly discovered it's more useful with leagues where the players actually try to score goals. ;) The Bundesliga sounds much more interesting.
dannigb
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Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:42 pm

Thank you for sharing this spreadsheet,

just wanted to ask if i can delete the relegated teams , and add the newly promoted ones for this year without any errors?.

i used it for more than a few games last season , and i don't want to f**k anything up that i cant fix quickly as im quite new to things.

Thanks again
dannigb
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Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:42 pm

Thanks for sharing , just wanted to know how I would go about removing and adding teams as I've used your database last season. Could I delete teams one by one and add the newly promoted ones? Or would it be best to just start a new one after a few games of this season?

Thanks again

Ps. Not sure if last message posted so my apologies if this seems unnecessary
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Derek27
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dannigb wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:56 am
Thanks for sharing , just wanted to know how I would go about removing and adding teams as I've used your database last season. Could I delete teams one by one and add the newly promoted ones? Or would it be best to just start a new one after a few games of this season?

Thanks again

Ps. Not sure if last message posted so my apologies if this seems unnecessary
Embarrassed to say that I haven't yet carried forward to another season. I used it on the Brazilian Serie A for a full season and decided the lack of goals made the league unsuitable.

You should be able to delete the relegated teams and add new ones through Datatbase > Teams on the navigation menu. Make a backup first, you may need to switch on cascade delete records. Obviously, the prices will be meaningless for matches with the promoted teams until you have several results for them in the database but for the others, you can carry on with last year's data. Halfway through the season you can use Database Edit > Delete Matches to trim the database to get rid of older last season matches.
dannigb
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Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:42 pm

Thank you for such a quick response and thank you for clearing things up.

The Database has done fine for me so far, sort of use it like a background measure, then I have a look at all the other things like betfair and form and so on.

Would you have any ideas on how I would get the best out of the database? Or any tips on anything I can add to make the decision making even easier?


I'm going to update a few things and give it a go,
wish me luck :mrgreen:
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Derek27
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dannigb wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:58 pm
Thank you for such a quick response and thank you for clearing things up.

The Database has done fine for me so far, sort of use it like a background measure, then I have a look at all the other things like betfair and form and so on.

Would you have any ideas on how I would get the best out of the database? Or any tips on anything I can add to make the decision making even easier?


I'm going to update a few things and give it a go,
wish me luck :mrgreen:
I haven't been using it that much for my trading. I've started compiling a few databases now that the season is underway again, but it was more of a VBA exercise. It may be more useful for betting than trading, but if you make any updates please post them here. :)
pdcutler
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Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:06 am

Has anyone got a new CSV for season 2021-2022 results, I am new and using @Derek27 2021 data, where everton used to score goals
pdcutler
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Season 21/22 results

I have created last seasons CSV file, Download, unzip with 7zip and just added it as before.

Cuts
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Derek27
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Cheers pdcutler. :)
pdcutler
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Aug 13, 2022 7:03 pm
Cheers pdcutler. :)
Thank you for all the work on the DB, much appreciated
pdcutler
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unbelievable how close the Goal minutes actually were
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Derek27
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pdcutler wrote:
Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:32 pm
unbelievable how close the Goal minutes actually were
Wow! That was as close as the bust-up between the managers. :D
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