Soccer Poisson database

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
User avatar
ilovepizza82
Posts: 490
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:41 pm
Location: Sewers
Contact:

Ah yes. Didnt notice that. Thanks again Derek ! Great help !
nivi7
Posts: 163
Joined: Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:53 pm

what can be more useless in betting than Poisson?
just try an online Poisson calculator for a 100 games
see it for yourself
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

nivi7 wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 4:15 am
what can be more useless in betting than Poisson?
just try an online Poisson calculator for a 100 games
see it for yourself
Remember your first post?
nivi7 wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:50 pm
hello everyone

what i want is to learn Excel in order to analyze football data and applying formulas like Poisson distribution,Elo ratings etc and get as an out come probabilities

where should i start ?

Are there people who offering tutorials specifically for sport betting or smth?
Poisson is completely useless to people who can't make sense of the data and take the probabilities literally. It's not the data but your interpretation of it that's important. Yours may be different to mine.

I look forward to your usual insult. :)
neilb
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2009 8:17 pm

One man's meat is another mans poisson.
nivi7
Posts: 163
Joined: Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:53 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 4:55 am

Remember your first post?

I look forward to your usual insult. :)
welp
i did respond to your trolling with insults in all the occasions you ruined my threads

but i would never go so far to compare the level of beting you re today with the level of a newbie and ignorant of betting -
which i was when i made that post and believing in snake oils like kelly kriterion,Poisson etc-

but apparently you re :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
damn you son
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I've upgraded the front-end database and Excel template. The setup now has a scoreboard for updating the current score and a countdown timer with a start/stop toggle button (first worksheet only). The prices/probabilities are now based on the Poisson mass function for the time remaining of the game. You can adjust the minutes remaining at any time or take a peek into a future point in the match, like Soccer Mystic. It's not quite the same as SM as the spreadsheet will be ignorant of current prices and purely based on goal expectation. Might be useful for matches that don't have the markets required for SM. :D
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by Derek27 on Fri May 28, 2021 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
darchas
Posts: 301
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:55 pm

Great work - really good of you to share Derek.
footysystems
Posts: 165
Joined: Thu May 09, 2013 5:57 pm

Possion underestimate the draw Derick :shock:
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

footysystems wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 8:36 pm
Possion underestimate the draw Derick :shock:
I'm well aware of that. I've become more of an under/overs man. :D
footysystems
Posts: 165
Joined: Thu May 09, 2013 5:57 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 8:43 pm
footysystems wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 8:36 pm
Possion underestimate the draw Derick :shock:
I'm well aware of that. I've become more of an under/overs man. :D
Tricky Derek but good luck
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 6:32 pm
I've upgraded the front-end database and Excel template. The setup now has a scoreboard for updating the current score and a countdown timer with a start/stop toggle button (first worksheet only). The prices/probabilities are now based on the Poisson mass function for the time remaining of the game. You can adjust the minutes remaining at any time or take a peek into a future point in the match, like Soccer Mystic. It's not quite the same as SM as the spreadsheet will be ignorant of current prices and purely based on goal expectation. Might be useful for matches that don't have the markets required for SM. :D
It's beginning to sound a lot Christm.... Soccer Mystic.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 6:32 pm
I've upgraded the front-end database and Excel template. The setup now has a scoreboard for updating the current score and a countdown timer with a start/stop toggle button (first worksheet only). The prices/probabilities are now based on the Poisson mass function for the time remaining of the game. You can adjust the minutes remaining at any time or take a peek into a future point in the match, like Soccer Mystic. It's not quite the same as SM as the spreadsheet will be ignorant of current prices and purely based on goal expectation. Might be useful for matches that don't have the markets required for SM. :D
That must have taken a fair bit or work, thanks for sharing mate 👍
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 10:04 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri May 28, 2021 6:32 pm
I've upgraded the front-end database and Excel template. The setup now has a scoreboard for updating the current score and a countdown timer with a start/stop toggle button (first worksheet only). The prices/probabilities are now based on the Poisson mass function for the time remaining of the game. You can adjust the minutes remaining at any time or take a peek into a future point in the match, like Soccer Mystic. It's not quite the same as SM as the spreadsheet will be ignorant of current prices and purely based on goal expectation. Might be useful for matches that don't have the markets required for SM. :D
That must have taken a fair bit or work, thanks for sharing mate 👍
+1

Apart from "mate". I don't think we have that status :D
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Tedious going through all the formulas but otherwise the modification was quite simple. :)
User avatar
Silverthorn
Posts: 26
Joined: Sat Mar 13, 2021 2:47 pm
Location: Australia

Awesome job Derek. thanks soo Much. What a Fantastic tool!! You just gave my Soccer Trading a shot in the arm. Took a LOT of setting up and just a tad of tweaking to suit my system but so much easier selecting suitable events now!! :D
Post Reply

Return to “Football trading”