Soccer Poisson database

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Derek27
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ilovepizza82 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 12:36 pm
Thanks Derek ! Great stuff !
However according to https://www.infogol.net/en/matches/engl ... 5-16/70767
West Brom xG is: 0.76 and Liverpool is 2, not 2.97. Same thing on Soccerstats with Liverpool having 2.
Why sucha discrepancy ?
Got it! Those figures are the average goals for this season rather than expected goals, which takes into account averages and the opponents stats. While I was checking the calculation I noticed this year in the Premiership there's been 2 more away goals than home goals! I guess covid has taken away the home advantage.

Avg home goals: 1.340845
Avg away goals: 1.346479
Avg home team goals:0.7647059
Avg home team goals conceded:2
Avg away team goals:2
Avg away team goals conceded:1.235294
HTAS: 0.5703164
ATDS: 0.9212803
Expected home goals: 0.7045085
ATAS: 1.485356
HTDS: 0.9212803
Expected away goals: 2.970711
Last edited by Derek27 on Sun May 16, 2021 2:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek27
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Trader Pat wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 2:26 pm
Good effort Derek. You must have been burning the midnight oil on that!
After doing a lot of scalping I developed a (goal waiting) strategy that allows me to pop out for a fag while trading, or get some other work done. A few 0-0 draws helped it along. :D
jamesg46
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Is it normal with Poisson for the probability of the outcomes to be less than 100%? Prices seemed to be pretty accurate but there is 3.21% of floating probability on this match.
Archery1969
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Hi Derek,

Nice work.

Any reason why game lenght is 96 instead of 90 ?

Cheers,
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Derek27
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jamesg46 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 4:36 pm
Is it normal with Poisson for the probability of the outcomes to be less than 100%? Prices seemed to be pretty accurate but there is 3.21% of floating probability on this match.
The 'any other' home/draw/away correct score only counts probabilities of either side scoring up to 6 goals, so in a one-sided match there may be a bit missing off the favourite.
jamesg46
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 4:59 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 4:36 pm
Is it normal with Poisson for the probability of the outcomes to be less than 100%? Prices seemed to be pretty accurate but there is 3.21% of floating probability on this match.
The 'any other' home/draw/away correct score only counts probabilities of either side scoring up to 6 goals, so in a one-sided match there may be a bit missing off the favourite.
Makes sense 👍
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Derek27
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Archery1969 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 4:39 pm
Hi Derek,

Nice work.

Any reason why game lenght is 96 instead of 90 ?

Cheers,
I've taken 96 minutes as an average length of a match. It wasn't a very big sample but 1-2 extra minutes in the first half and 4-5 in the second seems about right.
Archery1969
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Location: Newport

Derek27 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 5:04 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 4:39 pm
Hi Derek,

Nice work.

Any reason why game lenght is 96 instead of 90 ?

Cheers,
I've taken 96 minutes as an average length of a match. It wasn't a very big sample but 1-2 extra minutes in the first half and 4-5 in the second seems about right.
Understood. :)
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ilovepizza82
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 2:29 pm
ilovepizza82 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 12:36 pm
Thanks Derek ! Great stuff !
However according to https://www.infogol.net/en/matches/engl ... 5-16/70767
West Brom xG is: 0.76 and Liverpool is 2, not 2.97. Same thing on Soccerstats with Liverpool having 2.
Why sucha discrepancy ?
Got it! Those figures are the average goals for this season rather than expected goals, which takes into account averages and the opponents stats. While I was checking the calculation I noticed this year in the Premiership there's been 2 more away goals than home goals! I guess covid has taken away the home advantage.

Avg home goals: 1.340845
Avg away goals: 1.346479
Avg home team goals:0.7647059
Avg home team goals conceded:2
Avg away team goals:2
Avg away team goals conceded:1.235294
HTAS: 0.5703164
ATDS: 0.9212803
Expected home goals: 0.7045085
ATAS: 1.485356
HTDS: 0.9212803
Expected away goals: 2.970711
Yes. Makes sense now. Thanks !
Pity you need to download each team each time you want to update. Wish they had at least one file for each league, not for each team.
Imagine having 5 or 6 fav leagues. :D
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Derek27
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ilovepizza82 wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 9:05 am
Yes. Makes sense now. Thanks !
Pity you need to download each team each time you want to update. Wish they had at least one file for each league, not for each team.
Imagine having 5 or 6 fav leagues. :D
If you're using fixturedownload.com, you need to click on "Full fixture" above the teams to download all the matches and then delete the matches yet to be played (as well as rearranging the columns). Then you can click on "Results Entry" to add matches as they take place.
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ilovepizza82
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Ah yes. Didnt notice that. Thanks again Derek ! Great help !
nivi7
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Joined: Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:53 pm

what can be more useless in betting than Poisson?
just try an online Poisson calculator for a 100 games
see it for yourself
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Derek27
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nivi7 wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 4:15 am
what can be more useless in betting than Poisson?
just try an online Poisson calculator for a 100 games
see it for yourself
Remember your first post?
nivi7 wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:50 pm
hello everyone

what i want is to learn Excel in order to analyze football data and applying formulas like Poisson distribution,Elo ratings etc and get as an out come probabilities

where should i start ?

Are there people who offering tutorials specifically for sport betting or smth?
Poisson is completely useless to people who can't make sense of the data and take the probabilities literally. It's not the data but your interpretation of it that's important. Yours may be different to mine.

I look forward to your usual insult. :)
neilb
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Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2009 8:17 pm

One man's meat is another mans poisson.
nivi7
Posts: 163
Joined: Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:53 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 4:55 am

Remember your first post?

I look forward to your usual insult. :)
welp
i did respond to your trolling with insults in all the occasions you ruined my threads

but i would never go so far to compare the level of beting you re today with the level of a newbie and ignorant of betting -
which i was when i made that post and believing in snake oils like kelly kriterion,Poisson etc-

but apparently you re :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
damn you son
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