Euro 2020

[rik]

Well maybe you have to put the chance of someone like Saka missing in that situation with all the pressure significantly higher than a usual penalty and if you think about it 1.42 seems low but its about 70% implied chance so it would make him 71,5% to score if you thought England were an evens chance after him scoring but you probably had to put England underdog even afterwards, so even if you had put him 80% to score that would make it 56-44 from there on and 80% definitely too high

[rik]

Someone followed the win market during penalty shoot out? Its really a noticeable statistical advantage shooting first in a penalty shoot out? Price went from about evens to almost 60-40 and after England missed the one someone was massively backing Italy pushing price down to 1.4 before the last penalty. If you compare to the other penalty shoot outs price went 1,7 range when first team to shoot scored.
Cant decide if it was smart money moving the price like that

There's smart money in pre-off horse racing. What's smart money in a penalty shootout? Everybody can see what the situation is?

I dont mean smart money in terms of insider knowledge or something like that, just in terms of betting with a plan/edge.

[Derek27]

Someone followed the win market during penalty shoot out? Its really a noticeable statistical advantage shooting first in a penalty shoot out? Price went from about evens to almost 60-40 and after England missed the one someone was massively backing Italy pushing price down to 1.4 before the last penalty. If you compare to the other penalty shoot outs price went 1,7 range when first team to shoot scored.
Cant decide if it was smart money moving the price like that

There's smart money in pre-off horse racing. What's smart money in a penalty shootout? Everybody can see what the situation is?

I dont mean smart money in terms of insider knowledge or something like that, just in terms of betting with a plan/edge.

Were you trading or placing a bet? I would have thought the difference between a smart price and a mug price, when a penalty is about to be taken is quite a slim margin.

[Morbius]

I said at the outset that England would not win a major tournament with Southgate in charge and I was very close to being wrong. But I can't help feeling this near miss and the semi in Russia glosses over his inadequacies and he gets by because of a very talented squad.

England have had a lot of decent results in this tournament but Spain beat Germany 6-0 not long ago and Croatia are not at the same level as they were in 2018 plus we were at home. Italy had 19 goal attempts to our 6 which shows they deserved it. For me it was like watching a repeat of the Croatia semi final.

Southgate looked like a deer caught in the headlights. It was obvious five to ten minutes in that second half that the momentum had shifted. England have a track record of going defensive against a top class side after taking a lead. This is not hindsight. Read my timeline posts on this thread.

We needed a player who could keep possession and win us set pieces up the park. Grealish is the most fouled player in the Prem two years running. It was pointless bringing Sako on at that late stage and penalty shootouts are not lotteries and I wish people would stop calling them that. We were underdogs in that shootout for the reasons I stated before it started.

I didn't see any progression in this tournament in terms of Southgate changing a game that's going against him while his team is leading. Being defensive and unsure in key moments reflects his lack of big game experience and is probably in his DNA.

[rik]

There's smart money in pre-off horse racing. What's smart money in a penalty shootout? Everybody can see what the situation is?

I dont mean smart money in terms of insider knowledge or something like that, just in terms of betting with a plan/edge.

Were you trading or placing a bet? I would have thought the difference between a smart price and a mug price, when a penalty is about to be taken is quite a slim margin.

Yes I would have thought margins are slim in a penalty shoutout thats why I opposed. Generally if a big bet changes the price significantly in a liquid market I think its a good idea to oppose. Think the first 200k or so got eaten up by the market but he (probably same account) kept placing big bets on Italy.

Were you trading or placing a bet?

As long as market biased for Italy due to this guy trading out wouldnt make sense would it, shouldnt have bet in the first place then. If England got back close to evens I would have.

[Euler]

After some reflection and perhaps a bit of hindsight bias, though I think it was obvious for all to see, England really blew their best ever chance of a trophy.

Playing at home, 1-0 up so early and dominating the first half, a second would have caused Italy real problems. They didn't get it, Italy changed shape at HT and England lost the plot. Against a good team they defended too deep and just invited pressure. It was almost inevitable that Italy would score, even just by chance.

Failure to change formation after Italy changed, is a little bemusing. Extra time and Italy were flagging, but no substitutions were made and England didn't take advantage.

The penalty shootout was a strange one, I can't believe Southgate agreed to that line up. Not sure what he was thinking there?

With the World Cup just around the corner I think Southgate will stay with this team and we won't get so lucky in Qatar. Vunrabilities will be exposed and it's back to square one for the next Euros.

[wearthefoxhat]

Time to reflect on the final.

Mancini's tactics when dealing with his key injured players and the occasion overall, won through. Southgate's loyalty of picking mainly an unchanged side throughout the tournament held up well, but I think the substitutions were questionable. Yes, maybe with hindsight, but you can't go far wrong bringing Grealish on in normal time. The Jordan Henderson sub, didn't blend in very well with the overall energy of the team.

Pickford had a great tournament although the Liverpool fans won't want to agree on that one.

[Euler]

Mancini definitely got his tactics tight throughout the tournament and Italy ultimately were the best team.

England's failures hang like a massive millstone around the players necks and I think this defeat will write them off in Qatar.

[Tuco]

Someone followed the win market during penalty shoot out? Its really a noticeable statistical advantage shooting first in a penalty shoot out? Price went from about evens to almost 60-40 and after England missed the one someone was massively backing Italy pushing price down to 1.4 before the last penalty. If you compare to the other penalty shoot outs price went 1,7 range when first team to shoot scored.
Cant decide if it was smart money moving the price like that

bad luck Rik - hope you managed to make money overall

...could it be someone was simply taking a chance given the inexperienced penalty taker?

or that Gianluigi Donnarumma is twice the size of Jordan Pickford and had won his last four penalty shootouts?

[Derek27]

Mancini definitely got his tactics tight throughout the tournament and Italy ultimately were the best team.

England's failures hang like a massive millstone around the players necks and I think this defeat will write them off in Qatar.

Try to uplift us Peter, you're the Gareth Southgate of this forum.

[firlandsfarm]

...it was unfair on the bit-part players to expect them to come on for a minute, then take a high pressure penalty - should have been those much more involved - Sterling and Grealish for starters and even Shawberto!

Tuco, the problem was the positions those late subs had to play in until the final whistle ... for example Rashford is not a natural right back! So he had to leave it as late as he dared to protect them playing out of position. Maybe it was a shortcoming in selection, the team was balanced while the starting 11 were on the pitch but could not be balanced if subs were introduced as penalty takers. A good manager would evaluate all eventualities and make sure they are covered. That England should take the lead, Italy then equalise and the game go on to penalties was one of the highly probable outcomes and should have been covered.

[Tuco]

A good manager would evaluate all eventualities and make sure they are covered. That England should take the lead, Italy then equalise and the game go on to penalties was one of the highly probable outcomes and should have been covered.

...correct

[firlandsfarm]

I said at the outset that England would not win a major tournament with Southgate in charge and I was very close to being wrong. But I can't help feeling this near miss and the semi in Russia glosses over his inadequacies and he gets by because of a very talented squad.

England have had a lot of decent results in this tournament but Spain beat Germany 6-0 not long ago and Croatia are not at the same level as they were in 2018 plus we were at home. Italy had 19 goal attempts to our 6 which shows they deserved it. For me it was like watching a repeat of the Croatia semi final.

Southgate looked like a deer caught in the headlights. It was obvious five to ten minutes in that second half that the momentum had shifted. England have a track record of going defensive against a top class side after taking a lead. This is not hindsight. Read my timeline posts on this thread.

We needed a player who could keep possession and win us set pieces up the park. Grealish is the most fouled player in the Prem two years running. It was pointless bringing Sako on at that late stage and penalty shootouts are not lotteries and I wish people would stop calling them that. We were underdogs in that shootout for the reasons I stated before it started.

I didn't see any progression in this tournament in terms of Southgate changing a game that's going against him while his team is leading. Being defensive and unsure in key moments reflects his lack of big game experience and is probably in his DNA.

Well said Morbius.

I think our problem with penalties is that our game is not as delicate and finessed as the best from the rest of the world. That's been so for decades. We have had the occasional player who could work the ball like overseas players (David Beckham's right foot! ) but generally our game is about darting runs. PL teams use 'ball players' but when they want a new one they go abroad and buy one so any home grown player hoping to secure that place in a team doesn't stand a chance. PL teams use overseas players for ball play and British players for cut and thrust.

[firlandsfarm]

I watched the game (didn't trade) and the big difference I saw was that when an England player received the ball he immediately had 2 or 3 Italians harassing him but when they had the ball they usually had time to play it on unless they chose to run with it but then it was more the Italian running towards our man and not the other way! Also they always had at least one man spare to pass the ball to but often we didn't, every England player who could receive the ball was usually marked so when the pass was made they were immediately under pressure.

[Derek27]

A good manager would evaluate all eventualities and make sure they are covered. That England should take the lead, Italy then equalise and the game go on to penalties was one of the highly probable outcomes and should have been covered.

Give the guy a break. If he was a rocket scientist he would have got into orbit, not a 50-mile dip.