Euro 2020

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Euler
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rik wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:14 pm
Euler wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:10 pm
Here is the rough data I cobbled together on the pen shootout this morning: -

2021-07-12 at 12.08.40.png
Weighted Average matched right? Interesting, so whats your opinion, Italy were too low?
Still digging around in the data. But this is the rough price the market was at as the penalty taker walked up.
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Derek27
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Rik, I really admire your openness with your PLs. Most people just post their greens. :)
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Tuco
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rik wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:06 pm
no penalties went badly went from 8 to -11k on the tournament market
not a football expert, was dabbling around market making until thought surely price must be wrong on the penalties.
I try to make a quick decision if I feel a price is clearly wrong as it might be gone quickly but probalby in this case I judged poorly
...sorry to hear that :(

...yeah in-play you have to make quick decisions - no time to deliberate - next time that will work out well for you.

I didn't trade the outright winner market last night and had levelled up making a small 4 fig sum over the whole tournament.

I made a 'mistake-in-haste' in the group stages though:

when Sweden scored a late winner against Poland, I backed Spain-Sweden in the straight forecast market rather than Sweden-Spain - very luckily it only cost me £277 but annoying none-the-less.

(I also had the dual forecast market open in a window next to the straight forecast so that might have distracted me).
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firlandsfarm
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rik wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:11 pm
Youd have to say England have a bunch of "delicate and finessed" players though, but Sancho for example wasnt even played? Lot of quality players, if you look at market value rating for example, England were top
Hi rik, my "delicate and finessed" comment was within the context of missing penalties. There is a reason why we perform below average for a top team in penalty shoot-outs. According to the BBC "England have won just 22% (two of nine) of their major tournament shootouts (World Cup/Euros), the lowest ratio of any European nation to have been involved in three or more.".
I don't see that as statistical variance, there has to be a reason ... I think part of the reason may be that we cannot place the ball as accurately as many overseas players when it comes to directing a penalty. Yes some will stand up to assessment but it takes at least 5 out of 11 to win a penalty shoot-out. The three that missed were very poor penalties in where the ball was played.

Not sure what you mean by "market value" are you referring to Transfer Market values?
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Dallas
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Euler wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:19 am
After some reflection and perhaps a bit of hindsight bias, though I think it was obvious for all to see, England really blew their best ever chance of a trophy.

Playing at home, 1-0 up so early and dominating the first half, a second would have caused Italy real problems. They didn't get it, Italy changed shape at HT and England lost the plot. Against a good team they defended too deep and just invited pressure. It was almost inevitable that Italy would score, even just by chance.

Failure to change formation after Italy changed, is a little bemusing. Extra time and Italy were flagging, but no substitutions were made and England didn't take advantage.

The penalty shootout was a strange one, I can't believe Southgate agreed to that line up. Not sure what he was thinking there?

With the World Cup just around the corner I think Southgate will stay with this team and we won't get so lucky in Qatar. Vunrabilities will be exposed and it's back to square one for the next Euros.
That's pretty much the way I saw it, over the 120mins Italy were marginally the better team so on balanced deserved the win, but to go out on penalties in the way we did was as harsh as I think was possible and I do feel for those players who missed especially Saka

The way we kept pushing in the first going into the HT break I'd through we'd finally broken that bad habit that's been the cause of so many of our exits over past tournaments but then in that 2nd half as Peter said we were just inviting them to score, there was no way we were holding out 45mins against a team like Italy.
MoRobo44
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Glad that is over. What a disaster in london and around the stadium and the reaction online.

My sister was at the game and got 1st hand footage of the carnage. just happy she got home ok. crazy.
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jimibt
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MoRobo44 wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:25 pm
Glad that is over. What a disaster in london and around the stadium and the reaction online.

My sister was at the game and got 1st hand footage of the carnage. just happy she got home ok. crazy.
yes, they are not a great advert for the game. it's no wonder that you see these meme maps where every country in europe is sporting the italian flag with england alone represented by the st george's flag. it's this small minority of bigots that color the view of the england brand internationally.
Trader Pat
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Something Southgate said in a post match interview really baffled me. He said the penalty takers were pre decided in training :? How can you decide on the takers for such a massive occasion before the game?! I understand having a provisional list of takers but surely for most of the team you'd have to look into their eyes after extra time and then decide if they'd take one or not?

A lot had been made all month about how Southgate and his back room team leave nothing to chance and cover every angle, but they don't seem very good at adapting. Southgate reminds me of a trader who's very good at initially reading what direction the market will go in, but when market conditions start to change is too slow to adapt, resulting in a red.

As a neutral and a football fan its a real shame to see successive generations of English talent being squandered. Since the inception of the Premier League the national teams of all the other 'Big 5 leagues' have won multiple major titles. Germany & Italy have both won 1 World Cup and 1 Euros, Spain have won 1 WC and 2 Euros and France have won 2 WC's and 1 Euros. I know you could argue that the Premier League is dominated by foreign talent but also the FA needs to shoulder some of the blame. They seem to be just a bunch of suits with no real idea about the game, there's not a single ex footballer on the board of directors. Imo the FA needs an overhaul and maybe should follow the example of the other national associations mentioned above and have some ex players in positions of power.
PapaShango
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Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:40 pm


Southgate reminds me of a trader who's very good at initially reading what direction the market will go in, but when market conditions start to change is too slow to adapt, resulting in a red.
Southgate reminds me of a trader who somehow flukes his way to a huge green number, catching every break going, only to watch it turn into a massive red when he tries to cash out.
greenmark
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It was a very even game for me. Sure we appeared to sit back, but anyone thats played sport knows a worthy opponent will redouble their efforts when losing.
Rash's pen was a ball's width from being perfect. And who could possibly criticise a 19yr old having the guts to step up to the plate.
It was SO narrow a victory. Italy are unbeaten in 34 - since Sep 2018. That says it all.
arbitrage16
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greenmark wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:18 pm
It was a very even game for me. Sure we appeared to sit back, but anyone thats played sport knows a worthy opponent will redouble their efforts when losing.
Rash's pen was a ball's width from being perfect. And who could possibly criticise a 19yr old having the guts to step up to the plate.
It was SO narrow a victory. Italy are unbeaten in 34 - since Sep 2018. That says it all.
Absolutely. So many after timers in this thread who would have been singing the praises of players/manager alike if Rashford's penalty had gone in. Fine margins.

It's been 50+ years since England won a trophy. They were always going to need to go close, to have that experience, before they win something. That's the players, but it's also the manager - Southgate is inexperienced in management, but he has the capacity to improve and become a winner, because he has shown progress at every stage.

No shame in losing to a quality side like Italy, in such close fashion, when they are tried and tested and have winners throughout their setup.
Trader Pat
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:37 pm
greenmark wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:18 pm
It was a very even game for me. Sure we appeared to sit back, but anyone thats played sport knows a worthy opponent will redouble their efforts when losing.
Rash's pen was a ball's width from being perfect. And who could possibly criticise a 19yr old having the guts to step up to the plate.
It was SO narrow a victory. Italy are unbeaten in 34 - since Sep 2018. That says it all.
Absolutely. So many after timers in this thread who would have been singing the praises of players/manager alike if Rashford's penalty had gone in. Fine margins.
That's how sports work isn't it? You praise the winners and critique the losers :?

My criticism of Southgate goes way back to when he first got the job.

First question to ask when a team loses is could they have done anything differently? The answer in this case is definitely yes. Italy didn't click into gear after going a goal down, they were there for the taking for most of the first half but England didn't drive home their advantage. You can understand that because Southgate is a conservative coach but he must have known Mancini would change things at half time. However he didn't adapt to Mancini's changes and the second half was a completely different game with Italy on top. Southgate seemed content to just try and hang on for a 1-0 win, maybe his plan was to bring on Rashford or Grealish with 15 minutes to go but Bonucci's goal changed all that. Harry Kane didn't have a shot on target in 2 hours of football because he had no service and had to keep coming deep for the ball, that's Southgate's fault. He brings on two penalty takers in injury time at the end of extra time, surely give them a bit more time to settle in? I'd put that on Southgate too. There's a few things he could have done differently and it could be put down to after timing but some of this was brought up in commentary in real time so it was there for all to see.

You're right though in saying he'd have been praised if they'd have won the shootout, of course he would have. If that would have happened then Mancini would have been under the microscope, that just how it works. On balance though Southgate made more questionable decisions than Mancini did.
arbitrage16
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Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:27 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 5:16 pm
arbitrage16 wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:37 pm
greenmark wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:18 pm
It was a very even game for me. Sure we appeared to sit back, but anyone thats played sport knows a worthy opponent will redouble their efforts when losing.
Rash's pen was a ball's width from being perfect. And who could possibly criticise a 19yr old having the guts to step up to the plate.
It was SO narrow a victory. Italy are unbeaten in 34 - since Sep 2018. That says it all.
Absolutely. So many after timers in this thread who would have been singing the praises of players/manager alike if Rashford's penalty had gone in. Fine margins.
That's how sports work isn't it? You praise the winners and critique the losers :?
No not really, it's how critics work :)

I also think not enough focus is given to how incredibly hard it is to be successful, at anything. There are a lot of people on this forum, myself included, who struggle not to click a mouse button, or to click it less, whilst Southgate et al are stringing wins together in tournament football during a pandemic and coming within 6 inches of winning the whole thing. It's impressive stuff, especially when you consider where England came from....

awful football, no spirit, divided camp, clamming up in big games, the list goes on. Where is that now? Whatever Southgate has done, and obviously he made tactical errors - that would of course be punished against the most tactically proficient operation in world football - he has eradicated, for now, decades of issues. Of course some remain, but the progress has been incredible.

England are unrecognisable from 8 years ago, and Southgate and his team rightly take credit for that. This is a very young side, and the notion that such a result will cripple them is nonsense - it will drive them to improve on a great performance.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

arbitrage16 wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 5:27 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 5:16 pm
arbitrage16 wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:37 pm


Absolutely. So many after timers in this thread who would have been singing the praises of players/manager alike if Rashford's penalty had gone in. Fine margins.
That's how sports work isn't it? You praise the winners and critique the losers :?
No not really, it's how critics work :)

I also think not enough focus is given to how incredibly hard it is to be successful, at anything. There are a lot of people on this forum, myself included, who struggle not to click a mouse button, or to click it less, whilst Southgate et al are stringing wins together in tournament football during a pandemic and coming within 6 inches of winning the whole thing. It's impressive stuff, especially when you consider where England came from....

awful football, no spirit, divided camp, clamming up in big games, the list goes on. Where is that now? Whatever Southgate has done, and obviously he made tactical errors - that would of course be punished against the most tactically proficient operation in world football - he has eradicated, for now, decades of issues. Of course some remain, but the progress has been incredible.

England are unrecognisable from 8 years ago, and Southgate and his team rightly take credit for that. This is a very young side, and the notion that such a result will cripple them is nonsense - it will drive them to improve on a great performance.
100% agree with most of that but you can still praise England and Southgate for what he got right and at the same time highlight what he got wrong
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Not sure I'd compound the error by telling the world about it :)

https://www.skysports.com/watch/video/s ... ers-tattoo
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