High Average Odds - England v Italy

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RyanRyan
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:44 am

Hi,

I am hoping someone can help me. The correct score odds for England v Italy were much higher than any of the other matches currently taking place which I compared them to. Does anyone know why?

Is it because it was such a high profile match and bookies were offering high odds to attract punters or because there was so much liquidity on the match?
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

Low scoring expected think the over/under 2.5 was about 1.5, so that should make the bigger scores like 2-2 3-3 higher odds than usual.
RyanRyan
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:44 am

rik wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:42 pm
Low scoring expected think the over/under 2.5 was about 1.5, so that should make the bigger scores like 2-2 3-3 higher odds than usual.
I'm sorry but this does not help at all. The odds for all the correct scores were very high. Much higher compared to other matches. This match was a complete anomaly. But was is the reason. Is it because the match was so high profile or so much money was placed on it.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

no, amount of money bet wouldnt be an explanation why the prices were much higher.
They were both defensively good teams and a lot on the line in the final so they might be a bit more cautious, thats why it was unlikely for example to end 3-3 and therefore the price would have been much higher for than maybe some of the group games.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

RyanRyan wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:21 pm
rik wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:42 pm
Low scoring expected think the over/under 2.5 was about 1.5, so that should make the bigger scores like 2-2 3-3 higher odds than usual.
I'm sorry but this does not help at all. The odds for all the correct scores were very high. Is it because the match was so high profile or so much money was placed on it.
rik is 100% correct. And the average CS odds can't be higher, they'll always sum to approx 100%.
RyanRyan
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:44 am

Let's say for example England to win 1-0 was odds of 10. If the match was friendly with far less interest and money involved the odds would be 8.5. So when this effect is added to all the scores the correct score market was very high.

When I compared the average odds to around 8 other matches the odds for England v Italy all came out higher. it was as if the odds were inflated regardless of what the market predicted how the match would paly out as.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

RyanRyan wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:51 pm
Let's say for example England to win 1-0 was odds of 10. If the match was friendly with far less interest and money involved the odds would be 8.5. So when this effect is added to all the scores the correct score market was very high.

When I compared the average odds to around 8 other matches the odds for England v Italy all came out higher. it was as if the odds were inflated regardless of what the market predicted how the match would paly out as.
It seems inflated because if you add all odds together you will get a higher number for expected low scoring games.
If 3-3 is odds 100(1%) instead 50(2%) that makes 1% difference, whereas yesterday 0-0 was 6,4 (15,6%) so thats 5,6% more market share than if it was odds 10 on another match, even though odds might seem more similar to you than 50 and 100.
If under 2.5 is odds 1.5 thats 66% market share just for 00 0-1 1-0 1-1 0-2 and 2-0 so your going to have some higher odds for 3-3 etc
Yesterday 0-0 was 6.4 and 3-3 110 at match start.
Ive seen 0-0 in the 30s when high scoring teams play each other or its an unbalanced match so your not going to have the 3 digit odds for 3-3 or „any other“ then.
Nothing unusual about the odds yesterday, prices will always adjust to about 100% total
MoRobo44
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:15 pm

finals are traditionally low scoring?
RyanRyan
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:44 am

rik wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:25 pm
RyanRyan wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:51 pm
Let's say for example England to win 1-0 was odds of 10. If the match was friendly with far less interest and money involved the odds would be 8.5. So when this effect is added to all the scores the correct score market was very high.

When I compared the average odds to around 8 other matches the odds for England v Italy all came out higher. it was as if the odds were inflated regardless of what the market predicted how the match would paly out as.
It seems inflated because if you add all odds together you will get a higher number for expected low scoring games.
If 3-3 is odds 100(1%) instead 50(2%) that makes 1% difference, whereas yesterday 0-0 was 6,4 (15,6%) so thats 5,6% more market share than if it was odds 10 on another match, even though odds might seem more similar to you than 50 and 100.
If under 2.5 is odds 1.5 thats 66% market share just for 00 0-1 1-0 1-1 0-2 and 2-0 so your going to have some higher odds for 3-3 etc
Yesterday 0-0 was 6.4 and 3-3 110 at match start.
Ive seen 0-0 in the 30s when high scoring teams play each other or its an unbalanced match so your not going to have the 3 digit odds for 3-3 or „any other“ then.
Nothing unusual about the odds yesterday, prices will always adjust to about 100% total
So should all low anticipated scoring games between equal teams have similar odds? I back England to win 2-0 or 2-1 but it was easy to break even when Italy equalised.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

Yes, in general another match thats 1,5 for the under and balanced on the match odds will have similar odds for the correct scores. There might be exceptions when certain scores are needed to qualify etc
RyanRyan
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:44 am

rik wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:16 pm
Yes, in general another match thats 1,5 for the under and balanced on the match odds will have similar odds for the correct scores. There might be exceptions when certain scores are needed to qualify etc
Thanks, Is there a quick way to find these matches, To filter matches by their odds?
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