Over 1.5 goal strategy

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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craggybuk
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:14 am

Hi there

I'm still learning how to trade with small stakes and am focusing on over 1.5 goal markets.

Today I identified 25 potential matches in which to trade. As I am only using small stakes, my strategy is to wait until 40 minutes and evaluate the game. If the game is quiet, I wait until the 50th minute. If it is still quiet I write the game off and don't trade. If there is no goal I take a loss at 70 minutes.

Out of the 25 games, I have won 3, lost 1, written off 3 (which would have all lost) and had a goal before the odds hit in the other 18.

I would really appreciate any help and guidance in tweaking this strategy. Am I looking at the wrong games to get that many hit before I want them too? (I don't go in for odds below 1.8 in play). Most star around the 1.20 to 1.40 mark.

Thanks in advance.
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wearthefoxhat
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FWIW, my approach is to focus on leagues that are potentially high scoring and specialise on those.

Team selection with proven strikers and stats that support a lot of attempts - Shots on/off target.

When IP, let the game breathe a little, when momentum starts to build, consider entering 25-50% of your total trade stake.

If no goal, then wait again for further evidence, then go again with remaining stakes.

If there's a goal before your first entry, then let it go. If there's a goal before the 2nd entry, take small green.

Exit the trade if no goals just before HT if no goal if you're fully invested.

My view would be to look at the Over 2.5g market as there's usually more liquidity/volume to move stakes around.
craggybuk
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:14 am

Thanks for this very clear advice. It is much appreciated.

With the over 2.5 market, are you still cashing out after the first goal is scored? If there is no goal, I am assuming the odds drift out quicker in this market than they do in the 1.5 market?
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Derek27
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Location: UK

craggybuk wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:06 pm
Today I identified 25 potential matches in which to trade. As I am only using small stakes, my strategy is to wait until 40 minutes and evaluate the game. If the game is quiet, I wait until the 50th minute. If it is still quiet I write the game off and don't trade. If there is no goal I take a loss at 70 minutes.
I was a bit confused by that. You wait until the 50th minute and may decide not to trade, but after the 70th minute you take a loss. Did you forget to mention you open a trade at some point? ;)
craggybuk
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:14 am

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 9:15 pm
craggybuk wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:06 pm
Today I identified 25 potential matches in which to trade. As I am only using small stakes, my strategy is to wait until 40 minutes and evaluate the game. If the game is quiet, I wait until the 50th minute. If it is still quiet I write the game off and don't trade. If there is no goal I take a loss at 70 minutes.
I was a bit confused by that. You wait until the 50th minute and may decide not to trade, but after the 70th minute you take a loss. Did you forget to mention you open a trade at some point? ;)
Sorry, I open after 40 minutes if the game seems quite open, otherwise I re-evaluate at 50 minutes and either get on or move on to the next game
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craignmoss
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Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:52 pm

I've never bet over/under but here's a crazy idea. Betting over is the preferred choice for most punters, why? Because people want to see goals. I've done no research on this but my gut feel would tell me that there may be more value in unders.
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wearthefoxhat
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craggybuk wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:36 pm
Thanks for this very clear advice. It is much appreciated.

With the over 2.5 market, are you still cashing out after the first goal is scored? If there is no goal, I am assuming the odds drift out quicker in this market than they do in the 1.5 market?
With the over 2.5g market, I'd still cash out after a goal scored, if your plan was to exit just before HT is no goal scored.

The market will move quicker than the O1.5goals, but the market also reacts (slows down) in a lively game too.

If you choose to trade in the 2nd half, it will move quicker as there is time decay. (offers another trading opportunity if no trade was made in the first half)
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

craggybuk wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:06 pm
Hi there

I'm still learning how to trade with small stakes and am focusing on over 1.5 goal markets.

Today I identified 25 potential matches in which to trade. As I am only using small stakes, my strategy is to wait until 40 minutes and evaluate the game. If the game is quiet, I wait until the 50th minute. If it is still quiet I write the game off and don't trade. If there is no goal I take a loss at 70 minutes.

Out of the 25 games, I have won 3, lost 1, written off 3 (which would have all lost) and had a goal before the odds hit in the other 18.

I would really appreciate any help and guidance in tweaking this strategy. Am I looking at the wrong games to get that many hit before I want them too? (I don't go in for odds below 1.8 in play). Most star around the 1.20 to 1.40 mark.

Thanks in advance.
This isn't an answer to your question but just something to consider.

I've only been trading soccer for a year odd (long time trading horse racing) and realised goal expectancy for a particular match was the key to framing a strategy. Rather than picking a particular type of match or market I just experimented to small stakes on many types of matches and markets to get a good feel of how soccer markets work. In my opinion, when you're playing to small or experimental stakes it's the time to experiment rather than specialise. You can try out different strategies, summarise your results, then consider which ones are worth perservering and specialising in.
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Derek27 wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 12:55 am
This isn't an answer to your question but just something to consider.
In actual fact, what you say is the answer. :) experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak.
Derek27 wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 12:55 am
I've only been trading soccer for a year odd (long time trading horse racing) and realised goal expectancy for a particular match was the key to framing a strategy. Rather than picking a particular type of match or market I just experimented to small stakes on many types of matches and markets to get a good feel of how soccer markets work. In my opinion, when you're playing to small or experimental stakes it's the time to experiment rather than specialise. You can try out different strategies, summarise your results, then consider which ones are worth perservering and specialising in.
+1

As always, writing down strategy, looking at what happened, making adjustments, thinking about why something happened etc. As always, I recommend OP read - viewtopic.php?p=265873#p265873
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wearthefoxhat
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Here are some stats for last season football leagues. Remember, no crowds during this time may have had some influence, although there are some that may surprise.

Stats.png


Source; https://www.soccerstats.com/
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craggybuk
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:14 am

gazuty wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 3:25 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 12:55 am
This isn't an answer to your question but just something to consider.
In actual fact, what you say is the answer. :) experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak.
Derek27 wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 12:55 am
I've only been trading soccer for a year odd (long time trading horse racing) and realised goal expectancy for a particular match was the key to framing a strategy. Rather than picking a particular type of match or market I just experimented to small stakes on many types of matches and markets to get a good feel of how soccer markets work. In my opinion, when you're playing to small or experimental stakes it's the time to experiment rather than specialise. You can try out different strategies, summarise your results, then consider which ones are worth perservering and specialising in.
+1

As always, writing down strategy, looking at what happened, making adjustments, thinking about why something happened etc. As always, I recommend OP read - viewtopic.php?p=265873#p265873
Thanks for this. That was a great read. Kind of focuses my mind on things.

I've picked 20 games today. One has come in, the others have all had a goal in the opening 20 minutes. Not sure if that means I'm picking the right games or not?
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

craggybuk wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 3:27 pm
I've picked 20 games today. One has come in, the others have all had a goal in the opening 20 minutes. Not sure if that means I'm picking the right games or not?
After this football season (ie next year in June) you will have enough data to decide if you are picking the right games or not. Keep going and discoveries you will make.
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

craggybuk wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:06 pm
Hi there

I'm still learning how to trade with small stakes and am focusing on over 1.5 goal markets.

Today I identified 25 potential matches in which to trade. As I am only using small stakes, my strategy is to wait until 40 minutes and evaluate the game. If the game is quiet, I wait until the 50th minute. If it is still quiet I write the game off and don't trade. If there is no goal I take a loss at 70 minutes.

Out of the 25 games, I have won 3, lost 1, written off 3 (which would have all lost) and had a goal before the odds hit in the other 18.

I would really appreciate any help and guidance in tweaking this strategy. Am I looking at the wrong games to get that many hit before I want them too? (I don't go in for odds below 1.8 in play). Most star around the 1.20 to 1.40 mark.

Thanks in advance.
Tbh doesn't sound very efficient to me, windowing and framing your trade inside that small period of the match, can potentially waste years just to conclude it's not good enough, might be better to either commit to the value betting approach since bets are cheap enough at those prices or commit to the trading approach and trade the ebb and flow to create free bets etc and can pocket the money or put it where you think the value is at that point. So can also combine both to get the best of both worlds like similarly to Psychoff, while doing something in between that's neither here nor there can be difficult to optimize properly, automatically exiting at 70mins can easily give away what little value the bet had cuz ideally you only want to exit if the value is gone.

You obviously have to answer the simple question of whether you can find value in unders/overs ASAP, probably can't to start with but you can learn how to do it. If I was looking at stats to find goals I don't think I'd be looking at higher scoring leagues, I'd probably be more interested in low scoring ones as prices are dirt cheap by default so should be easier to start with. With higher scoring leagues and top teams it's probably easier to look for overpriced overs/unders that are going to accelerate their decay if the match doesn't live up to the high expectations, that approach in particular can produce big results like the Rebelo example since you're dealing with higher back prices.

Obviously the trading route has less variance so easier to stomach but value betting has it's long term advantages too, you would probably beat the premium charge for a while that way, and if you can confirm to yourself that you are able to find value consistently then you don't care about the losses.
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