Over 1.5 goal strategy

[craggybuk]

This isn't an answer to your question but just something to consider.

In actual fact, what you say is the answer. experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak, experiment, analyse, tweak.

I've only been trading soccer for a year odd (long time trading horse racing) and realised goal expectancy for a particular match was the key to framing a strategy. Rather than picking a particular type of match or market I just experimented to small stakes on many types of matches and markets to get a good feel of how soccer markets work. In my opinion, when you're playing to small or experimental stakes it's the time to experiment rather than specialise. You can try out different strategies, summarise your results, then consider which ones are worth perservering and specialising in.

+1

As always, writing down strategy, looking at what happened, making adjustments, thinking about why something happened etc. As always, I recommend OP read - viewtopic.php?p=265873#p265873

Thanks for this. That was a great read. Kind of focuses my mind on things.

I've picked 20 games today. One has come in, the others have all had a goal in the opening 20 minutes. Not sure if that means I'm picking the right games or not?

[gazuty]

I've picked 20 games today. One has come in, the others have all had a goal in the opening 20 minutes. Not sure if that means I'm picking the right games or not?

After this football season (ie next year in June) you will have enough data to decide if you are picking the right games or not. Keep going and discoveries you will make.

[Kai]

Hi there

I'm still learning how to trade with small stakes and am focusing on over 1.5 goal markets.

Today I identified 25 potential matches in which to trade. As I am only using small stakes, my strategy is to wait until 40 minutes and evaluate the game. If the game is quiet, I wait until the 50th minute. If it is still quiet I write the game off and don't trade. If there is no goal I take a loss at 70 minutes.

Out of the 25 games, I have won 3, lost 1, written off 3 (which would have all lost) and had a goal before the odds hit in the other 18.

I would really appreciate any help and guidance in tweaking this strategy. Am I looking at the wrong games to get that many hit before I want them too? (I don't go in for odds below 1.8 in play). Most star around the 1.20 to 1.40 mark.

Thanks in advance.

Tbh doesn't sound very efficient to me, windowing and framing your trade inside that small period of the match, can potentially waste years just to conclude it's not good enough, might be better to either commit to the value betting approach since bets are cheap enough at those prices or commit to the trading approach and trade the ebb and flow to create free bets etc and can pocket the money or put it where you think the value is at that point. So can also combine both to get the best of both worlds like similarly to Psychoff, while doing something in between that's neither here nor there can be difficult to optimize properly, automatically exiting at 70mins can easily give away what little value the bet had cuz ideally you only want to exit if the value is gone.

You obviously have to answer the simple question of whether you can find value in unders/overs ASAP, probably can't to start with but you can learn how to do it. If I was looking at stats to find goals I don't think I'd be looking at higher scoring leagues, I'd probably be more interested in low scoring ones as prices are dirt cheap by default so should be easier to start with. With higher scoring leagues and top teams it's probably easier to look for overpriced overs/unders that are going to accelerate their decay if the match doesn't live up to the high expectations, that approach in particular can produce big results like the Rebelo example since you're dealing with higher back prices.

Obviously the trading route has less variance so easier to stomach but value betting has it's long term advantages too, you would probably beat the premium charge for a while that way, and if you can confirm to yourself that you are able to find value consistently then you don't care about the losses.