Goals

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Undockedstar
Posts: 25
Joined: Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:30 pm

Hi,

I understand you can use xg to work out approx number of goals per match ( still looking at this!) But how about approx when a goal may be scored ? Could anyone point me in the right direction of what to look into? Reading or videos would be brilliant!
Thank you 😊
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Derek27
Posts: 23474
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Undockedstar wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:23 pm
Hi,

I understand you can use xg to work out approx number of goals per match ( still looking at this!) But how about approx when a goal may be scored ? Could anyone point me in the right direction of what to look into? Reading or videos would be brilliant!
Thank you 😊
Have you seen my Poisson spreadsheet? viewtopic.php?p=267668#p267668

It calculates the minute of a 50% likelihood of a goal being scored based on the Poisson Distribution: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_d ... s_function

Obviously PD has limitations which you're probably aware of but it can be a starting point.
Undockedstar
Posts: 25
Joined: Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:30 pm

I did find it yesterday, it's perfect for what I need. I was mainly looking for how to work it out for matches that ain't available on it. Unless I can find additional library's to add to it? Definitely a great addition to the forum so thank you that!
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