Goals prediction formula

[Malanno0]

Hi, I'm new to trading and I've got a question about the formula to calculate the most probable amount of goals that could be in a match. For example let's say there is Liverpool vs West Ham. Liverpool scores 2 goals and concedes 0.50 gol per game. West Ham scores 1 goal and concedes 1 goal per game. The calculation that I do to know how many goals this teams can score in this match it's to sum the average of goals scored from the home team (2) and the average of the goals conceded from the away team (1) divided by two ant then viceversa for West Ham.

Liverpool expected goals = 2+1/(2)= 1,5
West Ham expected goal= 1+0.50/(2)= 0,75

Is it a good way to have an estimation of the number of goals in a match or do you suggest something else? Let me know cause I'm really curious and I wanna learn as much as I can

[Derek27]

Hi, I'm new to trading and I've got a question about the formula to calculate the most probable amount of goals that could be in a match. For example let's say there is Liverpool vs West Ham. Liverpool scores 2 goals and concedes 0.50 gol per game. West Ham scores 1 goal and concedes 1 goal per game. The calculation that I do to know how many goals this teams can score in this match it's to sum the average of goals scored from the home team (2) and the average of the goals conceded from the away team (1) divided by two ant then viceversa for West Ham.

Liverpool expected goals = 2+1/(2)= 1,5
West Ham expected goal= 1+0.50/(2)= 0,75

Is it a good way to have an estimation of the number of goals in a match or do you suggest something else? Let me know cause I'm really curious and I wanna learn as much as I can

It's a bit more complex than that because you have to take into account the strength of the opposition when the goals are scored. Here's one possible method of calculating expected goals but it would be far more accurate to use it as a guide and make manual adjustments based on your own assessment of recent form, lineups, etc.

https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/arti ... ll-betting

[sionascaig]

can always look at the markets - that should give you an excellent goal prediction tool - if it didn't there is a lot of money to be made !

[Malanno0]

Hi, I'm new to trading and I've got a question about the formula to calculate the most probable amount of goals that could be in a match. For example let's say there is Liverpool vs West Ham. Liverpool scores 2 goals and concedes 0.50 gol per game. West Ham scores 1 goal and concedes 1 goal per game. The calculation that I do to know how many goals this teams can score in this match it's to sum the average of goals scored from the home team (2) and the average of the goals conceded from the away team (1) divided by two ant then viceversa for West Ham.

Liverpool expected goals = 2+1/(2)= 1,5
West Ham expected goal= 1+0.50/(2)= 0,75

Is it a good way to have an estimation of the number of goals in a match or do you suggest something else? Let me know cause I'm really curious and I wanna learn as much as I can

It's a bit more complex than that because you have to take into account the strength of the opposition when the goals are scored. Here's one possible method of calculating expected goals but it would be far more accurate to use it as a guide and make manual adjustments based on your own assessment of recent form, lineups, etc.

https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/arti ... ll-betting

Thank you Derek, is there online (I don't have excel) any goal expectancy calculator to speed up the process? Do you do this on every trade? Do you think goal expectancy and poisson distribution are precise or it doesn't matter so much? What I can't still understand it's how a trader can find an edge on the long period when every bookmaker knows these things.