Cover goals 60-70 minute; alternative market for Time Of First Goal

[Guid]

Hi Guys,

I am a sport trader for a while now, wrote my own algorithm and uses the exchange API to trade automatically.
Maybe you can help me as I am struggling with the following issue:

At the moment the first goals of the match is around the 60-65 minute, I loose quite a lot of bets.
I can cover this by using the Time Of First Goal market and place a bet on 60-70 selection. I place this bet at the start of the game once the odd are quite high; odds around 18-20. But the Time of First Goal market is a quite small and unstable market and for a lot of matches not available.

So my question is: Do you have expirience in this market, what are the calculation or thought behind those (high) odds? And what are the alternatives to cover goals in 60 minutes against high odds (placed at the start of the match)?

Looking forward to the reply's.

Regards, Guid.

[Kai]

Are you sure you need cover if you're running a profitable strategy?

Would the edge come from these cover bets or would it just re-distribute the profit/loss more evenly?

Have you considered the fact you may just be chasing your losses or trying to avoid them?

A few things to think about. Sounds like a smaller sample if first goal is that far out, cover bets could be just watering down your profit or needlessly complicating your trading. Can just back 0-0 if you think it's going to be a long time until the first goal.

[Guid]

Hi Kai,

Thanks for you reply.

Are you sure you need cover if you're running a profitable strategy?

I am not sure I really need those covers. I am trying to increase my profit. And it the loss decreases, my profit increases. First I have to know how to decrease the loss and how much profit the will take in the other matches.

Would the edge come from these cover bets or would it just re-distribute the profit/loss more evenly?

First one, if I cover that loss, it increases my profit.

Can just back 0-0 if you think it's going to be a long time until the first goal

If I back 0-0 around minute 15 the odds will be around 6-7 for the matches I play. Around minute 60 those lay odds are around 2.50/3.

If I back/lay with 2 pounds, the profit will be: 2.80. But the loss will be 2 at the moment the goal has been scored earlier.
To get that profit with the Time of First Goal market, I have to back 0.15 pound against the odd of 18 and my loss will be 0.15 pound if a goal has been scored.

[thepressure]

Just looking at the market (when this is actually offered), its very illiquid, isnt that off putting?