Over 2.5 goals strategy collapse

[kopthelot]

Hi folks,

I've been value betting on over 2.5s for five years with a fairly consistent 3% roi.
Plenty of winning and losing streaks along the way. Always put down to the v word. Variance.
I started this season in October and nine days ago I was +30 points
I'm now - 1 points. Winning just 27/75 bets. As a general rule of thumb I need to win 50% to break even.

My software has triggered more bets than usual recently so I assume that's because the odds on over 2.5 has been higher than usual. Hence my strategy detecting value. (looks like fake Value right now)

I've taken in to account recent storms which lowers goal expectation.

An unusual high amount of games have had missed penalties (including that ridiculous Palace penalty vs Norwich) and two first half goals with none in the second half.
Loads of 0-0s recently which usually only occur about 4% of games.

Any one with any ideas about what's happening? Variance just in a really grumpy mood? I've lost my edge? Maybe I've never had an edge and been lucky in the past?

Opinions are very welcome,

Thanks

P

[jamesedwards]

75 markets is a tiny sample, if it's been working for 5 years.

How have you taken into account the stormy weather? That sounds plausible to me.

Only other variable that has changed recently I can think of is the new £1 minimum stake which came in on 7th Feb.

[ShaunWhite]

If in doubt drop down to min stakes and keep an eye on it. If it's gone then it'll save you money and if it hasn't you can tentatively scale up again when you feel more confident.

[kopthelot]

I agree 75 is a tiny sample but my graph looks like the Pepsi max big on in blackpool. Steadily up than a sudden crash to ground. Basically I've just no placed a bet where the location has been particularly windy. But games occur all around the world so weather hasn't been an issue in a lot of places.
And yes, I think I'll have to reduce stakes for a while.
Yet another losing day yesterday.

Thanks for the response.

[MobiusGrey]

I agree 75 is a tiny sample but my graph looks like the Pepsi max big on in blackpool. Steadily up than a sudden crash to ground.....

Is it as good as mine

[ShaunWhite]

I agree 75 is a tiny sample but my graph looks like the Pepsi max big on in blackpool. Steadily up than a sudden crash to ground.....

Is it as good as mine

People often just look at the negatives without seeing that the positives were actually on the large side. That chart looks fine to me Mobius, just a nice gentle meandering around a steady trend.

Screenshot_9.jpg

[MobiusGrey]

I agree 75 is a tiny sample but my graph looks like the Pepsi max big on in blackpool. Steadily up than a sudden crash to ground.....

Is it as good as mine

People often just look at the negatives without seeing that the positives were actually on the large side. That chart looks fine to me Mobius, just a nice gentle meandering around a steady trend.
Screenshot_9.jpg

The massive drop off the cliff is a bit disconcerting I have to say

[kopthelot]

The last five years have meandered but predominantly increased month on month with the exception of when we came back after the first lockdown around 18 months ago.

[MobiusGrey]

But, if you were to pull up an equity curve of 5 years it would paint a very different landscape. I personally don't think an edge can vanish like that overnight and it's just a really bad period of variance.