Laying The Draw in the Half-Time Market With a rescue package for a 0-0 H.T. Scoreline

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
Post Reply
User avatar
shakey1964
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:56 pm
Location: Usually in my truck

Morning All
I have been trying to drill down criteria that would suit the Automation file that can be found here viewtopic.php?f=50&t=13663

"The bot will lay the draw one minute before K.O using a £10 fixed liability, if a goal is scored during the match it will then back the draw also for a £10 liability which will mean you now have no liability left on the draw (£0 Profit or Loss) and instead will have an equal but greater profit on both the home and away teams."

As the original post points out, this automation is best suited for games between teams of similar standings as as using this in a game where there is a strong favourite its great when they score first and the odds move dramatically but when the longshot scores first there is barely a movement in the draw odds and they rise slower than a snail up a drainpipe with a big house on its back.
But, if this file is used on the half-time market then there is a much more dramatic reaction in the odds when a goal is scored. The drawback to this is that the automation is active just in the first 45 minutes and a "bore draw" of 0-0 at halftime will give us a big fat loss. I therefore looked and found a file that might provide a rescue for use in the second half
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=12886
This file lays the draw at half time if the score is still 0-0 and will green up if and when a goal is scored
At half time the draw market in the Match odds is significantly lower and with less time to play until the end then a bigger jump may come after the goal.
As Dallas pointed out both of these files are suited best for teams of similar standings and as such he put in a rule for this particular file to that end that would only fire the automation if the favourites odds were 2.3 or more .
Last night I ran both of these files in several high profile matches but altered the stake to £2.00 and £4.00 liability respectively and to get around the 2.3 barrier by lowering the threshold to 1.2
The games that I chose to run these on met the criteria I have developed for this first file and put into a flow chart to try and stop any emotional decisions. The flow chart is now in an excel file which I can attach on to this post here (The first one was a word doc which I had to post on my blog as word docs cannot be attached on here)
excel changable flow chart for LTD.xlsx
flow 1.png
I have also attached the logs from last night this is also an excel file
LTD logs 250222.xlsx
The only problem last night was for some reason in the bundesliga match the bot fired when no goal had been scored (perhaps it had been disallowed) and the Inter game remained goalless the entire match and after half time I was really hoping that at least one team would score just to see the reaction in the market
All the other games had goals in the first half and behaved well creating a profit up to 5 time more than if it had been run in the match odds markets

The two baf files needed for this are attached in the next post
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by shakey1964 on Sat Feb 26, 2022 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
shakey1964
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:56 pm
Location: Usually in my truck

The "£2.00" file should be used on the half time market and the "rescue file" on the Match odds market
Please remember that this is my test bed and I am still running this in practice mode as should you if you want to try it out
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
shakey1964
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:56 pm
Location: Usually in my truck

Without using any criteria at all I have just loaded all the Premiership and Championship games into guardian with the halftime and match odds markets
I have set the relevant bots to each market as well as, in the rules 2 column set the origional lay the draw file to the match odds markets so as to get a comparison when things go right and to plan
I know that there are many gaps at the moment in both the half-time markets and Match odds markets but at the moment this is not a concern as I can then use this data to drill down to more likely games in which this strategy might be profitable
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
thepressure
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am

shakey1964 wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:33 am
The "£2.00" file should be used on the half time market and the "rescue file" on the Match odds market
Please remember that this is my test bed and I am still running this in practice mode as should you if you want to try it out
Thanks for this, so what actual line do i select to launch the bot on, home/away or draw? Same for the 0-0 one?

One thing I have noticed is when i change markets in Guardian it automatically changes my servant from Pending to Stopped, so cant set them both up, why is this?
User avatar
shakey1964
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:56 pm
Location: Usually in my truck

thepressure wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:31 am
shakey1964 wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:33 am
The "£2.00" file should be used on the half time market and the "rescue file" on the Match odds market
Please remember that this is my test bed and I am still running this in practice mode as should you if you want to try it out
Thanks for this, so what actual line do i select to launch the bot on, home/away or draw? Same for the 0-0 one?

One thing I have noticed is when i change markets in Guardian it automatically changes my servant from Pending to Stopped, so cant set them both up, why is this?
They will both fire lay bets on the draw market one in the half time market and one in the matched odds market just remember to get them the right way round
You can refer to the screen shot above if in any doubt
As for your servants, I have absolutely no idea as these files dont run servants just signals
That would be a question for Mr Dallas
thepressure
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am

So how do I actually "start" these files?

Thanks by the way.

So having this appear like this, it should do everything, and as long as its not 0-0 we should see some profits ? Thanks.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
shakey1964
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:56 pm
Location: Usually in my truck

If you have them assigned to the correct market then they will fire automatically
I have put links to the origional files as made by Dallas
They are
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=13663
This is the file I am using in the half time market
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=12886
And this is the file I am using if the first file loses if the score is 0-0 at half time
I have altered them to suit this strategy but if you read the posts this will, hopefully clarify what the files do
User avatar
shakey1964
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:56 pm
Location: Usually in my truck

thepressure wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:56 am
So how do I actually "start" these files?

Thanks by the way.

So having this appear like this, it should do everything, and as long as its not 0-0 we should see some profits ? Thanks.
As far as i can see from your screen shot it looks like you have got them the right way round
When you are in guardian you can select one of the markets and then at the bottom most pane there is an "automation" tab if you click this it will show you what steps have been taken and which are yet to trigger
thepressure
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am

Thanks, ive just pulled them down in the drop down menu, and downloaded from the first post, will that mean they will fire? Do I have to initiate anything?

Thanks, i think its all setup, Im not following why you run 2 triggers on the Match odds market as in the Automation tab at the bottom of Guardian, it is 0/2 for Green up after goal, Id think you only want to do this once?

I really appreciate your help by the way thankyou.
thepressure
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am

Ive just tried it, and my Guardian tries to launch both of the Lay the Draw at the half time on kick off as well as the same one (the second automation in the Match odds market) at kick off too, thats wrong right?
User avatar
shakey1964
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:56 pm
Location: Usually in my truck

Sorry for the delay I am fitting a new cooker
I am running one in halftime and the same file in the match odds market in rules 2 for a comparison between the two markets
In the half time market if tottenham win we would win 72p
in the Match odds market we would only have won 19p
Do you see?
thepressure
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am

No rush mate - honestly its just appreciated.

No I dont, my Guardian tries to launch both at the same time, dont we only want one launched ?

Or are you saying youre running both for comparison?


Edit - Just had my first 0-0. and the match odds one didnt fire, any ideas?
thepressure
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am

Initial thoughts, if its 0-0 at half time, a 2nd half goal often doesnt really green up that much profit like 70p or something, so if youve lost £2 and then £4 on a previous games, youre £1.30 down again for another match, maybe that 2nd half one isnt worth better as the wins vs reward is much lower?
User avatar
shakey1964
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:56 pm
Location: Usually in my truck

I am agreeing with you
I will do a full spread analysis in the morning
New cooker is in
shopping done
Steaks under the grill
Its gin oclock :D
thepressure
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am

Congrats.

Well, I still made money and would have made more had I not made such a bad selection with man utd Vs Watford.

Look forward to the analysis
Post Reply

Return to “Football trading”