Laying The Draw in the Half-Time Market With a rescue package for a 0-0 H.T. Scoreline

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
thepressure
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I presume laying the HT draw pays more than over 0.5 goals? I guess you can then chose not to cash out and let it run
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shakey1964
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thepressure wrote:
Sun Mar 06, 2022 6:35 pm
I presume laying the HT draw pays more than over 0.5 goals? I guess you can then chose not to cash out and let it run
There is, I suppose an argument for making an automation file, to back over 0.5 goals in the first half, 5 minutes before the average time an opening goal is scored in a particular league. For instance the average OPG (opening goal scored) in the English prem is around 31 minutes so you would assign a basic "Place a back bet of £x.xx at best odds" 26 minutes into in-play time
We all know that the odds rise quicker in the half time markets and if a goal is scored then the O/U 0.5 goal market gets suspended any automation file assigned to that market wouldn't fire if a goal is scored, but would get good odds on a match that was still goalless so you might get 3.0 (2/1). I am guessing at this and perhaps an in-play study should be made using the excel files available on this forum to record the odds movement as this might be as much as 5.0 or higher, I just don't know.
I am assuming that this would be the case with a suspended market (bot wouldn't fire) perhaps an automation guru could advise :?

To answer your original question, this all depends on the draw odds as the more favourite the favourite is the draw odds increase and the potential profit decreases
Archery1969
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This will be a good selection for laying the draw. Market things the teams are evenly matched.
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shakey1964
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Archery1969 wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 2:55 pm
This will be a good selection for laying the draw. Market things the teams are evenly matched.
Whilst I would probably agree, this thread is primarily focusing on the half time markets and as such , and while I am halfway through producing a worksheet for the prem, the following stats (without colour coding are like this
leeds v aton villa.png
The probability is that one of these teams will score in the first half
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Archery1969
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shakey1964 wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:11 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 2:55 pm
This will be a good selection for laying the draw. Market things the teams are evenly matched.
Whilst I would probably agree, this thread is primarily focusing on the half time markets and as such , and while I am halfway through producing a worksheet for the prem, the following stats (without colour coding are like this
leeds v aton villa.png
The probability is that one of these teams will score in the first half
+1
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shakey1964
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shakey1964 wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 2:34 pm
thepressure wrote:
Sun Mar 06, 2022 6:35 pm
I presume laying the HT draw pays more than over 0.5 goals? I guess you can then chose not to cash out and let it run
There is, I suppose an argument for making an automation file, to back over 0.5 goals in the first half, 5 minutes before the average time an opening goal is scored in a particular league. For instance the average OPG (opening goal scored) in the English prem is around 31 minutes so you would assign a basic "Place a back bet of £x.xx at best odds" 26 minutes into in-play time
We all know that the odds rise quicker in the half time markets and if a goal is scored then the O/U 0.5 goal market gets suspended any automation file assigned to that market wouldn't fire if a goal is scored, but would get good odds on a match that was still goalless so you might get 3.0 (2/1). I am guessing at this and perhaps an in-play study should be made using the excel files available on this forum to record the odds movement as this might be as much as 5.0 or higher, I just don't know.
I am assuming that this would be the case with a suspended market (bot wouldn't fire) perhaps an automation guru could advise :?

To answer your original question, this all depends on the draw odds as the more favourite the favourite is the draw odds increase and the potential profit decreases
Going completely off piste for this thread and down a bit of a black run this has been bugging me all night as to what would actually happen and what the odds reach after a certain amount of in-play time.
To this end I have done a quick worksheet listing the teams playing tonight in the championship and the relevent OGS times for when they play at home or away
Avg OGS 8 March championship.png
I have then made an automation file to use on the "First Half Goals 0.5 " market which places a £2.00 back bet 27 minutes and 15 seconds minutes into in play time on the OVER 0.5 goals . (32.25 - 5 mins) at the second best price as the markets don't seem to be awash with cash at the moment. I know that this might skew the data on the prices a fraction but it might give an indication as to what to expect.
I am running this in practice mode and have posted the file for anyone to try alternative timings. You just need to adjust the trigger time in the rule trigger time box on the general tab when you open it to edit
edit trigger time.png
The full automation file is below
Soccer-IP- C'Ship 8 Mar Back Opening Goal Avg Time -5 mins.baf
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shakey1964
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Not so good
P-L 8 MARCH CHAMPIONSHIP.png
a loss of £1.10 over the 6 matches last night
The biggest odds matched we 3.0 in the Blackburn Millwall game which ended 0-0 :o
Lowest odds matched were 1.92 in the Bournemouth Peterboro game
The other 3 games got matched at 2.92 2.58 and 2.6
The Sheffield Utd v Middlesboro market was void as the goal was scored before the trigger time
More work needed
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shakey1964
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Here's a fun fact for January this year
Only 3 games ended 0-0 in the championship out of 54 games played
thepressure
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probably the ones ive bet on :)
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shakey1964
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thepressure wrote:
Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:23 pm
probably the ones ive bet on :)
I know that feeling :evil:
Sometimes its as if they know you have money on them :lol: :lol:
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shakey1964
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Up early again this morning due to the bodyclock being run at the exact opposite to everyone else in the world after 26 years of nights 8-)
Started on the Australian A League workbook at about 4:30 this morning and while it was not finished properly by the time of the 2 early games this morning the data pointed towards early goals
log western Utd v Melbourne City 12 march.png
log Brisbane roar v Wellington Phoenix 12 march.png
I have to confess to greening up the markets but a total profit after greening up on these two is £1.02
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shakey1964
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Total Profit so far £4.45 + £1.02 = £5.47 :lol:

Build your bank slowly :lol:
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shakey1964
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I had one more game in Guardian before I had to go out for the day and this was Perth Glory v Sydney F.C.
This is the Log :
12/03/2022 08:04:00: [G_Auto 1] : £ 1.49 Lay bet placed on The Draw (HT) at 2.34. Fully matched at 2.34. Ref: 261295207885
12/03/2022 08:04:36: Guardian has detected that the market is in-play
12/03/2022 08:04:36: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
12/03/2022 08:04:37: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
12/03/2022 08:11:16: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
12/03/2022 08:11:18: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
12/03/2022 08:14:43: [G_Auto 1] : Automation Signal for market: goal = 1
12/03/2022 08:14:53: [G_Auto 1] : £ 0.48 Back bet placed on The Draw (HT) at 5.2. Fully matched at 5.3. Ref: 261296007283
12/03/2022 08:16:15: Greened up The Draw (HT) by Backing 0.17 at 5.4
12/03/2022 08:51:12: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended

Again I greened up and was left with a profit of 80p
This brings my total profit to £6.27 ;)

I have booked the bot to fire into this mornings Australian A league game between Adelaide and Newcastle
Keep fingers crossed that the stats stand up.
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shakey1964
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3rd Minute goal by Favourites Adelaide
13/03/2022 08:14:00: [G_Auto 1] : £ 1.18 Lay bet placed on The Draw (HT) at 2.7. Fully matched at 2.7. Ref: 261460023057
13/03/2022 08:15:49: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
13/03/2022 08:15:50: Guardian has detected that the market is in-play
13/03/2022 08:15:50: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
13/03/2022 08:18:27: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
13/03/2022 08:18:29: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
13/03/2022 08:20:34: [G_Auto 1] : Automation Signal for market: goal = 1
13/03/2022 08:20:45: [G_Auto 1] : £ 0.51 Back bet placed on The Draw (HT) at 4.9. Fully matched at 5. Ref: 261460353035
13/03/2022 08:23:10: Greened up The Draw (HT) by Backing 0.13 at 4.8

50p profit after greening

Total Profit £6.77 :shock:

The baf file I am using has been lost a bit at the beginning of the thread so I am re-posting it here for anyone that wants to try it
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shakey1964
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I have altered the staking for this to liability stakes of £2.50 instead of £2.00
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Last edited by shakey1964 on Sun Mar 13, 2022 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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