Laying The Draw in the Half-Time Market With a rescue package for a 0-0 H.T. Scoreline

[shakey1964]

Fiorentina v Bologna today

fiorentina v Bologna 13 march.png

[MemphisFlash]

would it be possible to share that sheet on this forum?

[shakey1964]

would it be possible to share that sheet on this forum?

Gladly
trouble is its a bit big to attach
So I have been putting all the oversize workbooks onto my blog page
I have already listed this one
http://bet-or-not.com/2022/03/06/serie- ... -workbook/
If you download it you will need to refresh the querys so as to update the stats sheet
For anyone who is new to excel you just need to open the data tab on the top ribbon and click the refresh all icon in the Queries and connections box

[shakey1964]

Heres the sheet for Herllas Verona v Napoli this afternoon

Hellas Verona v Napoli 13 march 22.png

Just one thing
You dont need to manually type the home and away sides into their prospective cells just select from a drop down box
None of the cells are protected so it is very easy to mess the data up
If this happens just refresh the queries
If you do type into the teams cells simply delete the workbook and download it again

[thepressure]

oh wow does this sheet pull from an external site and update daily?

where do you pull the data from?

how about recent updates?

[shakey1964]

oh wow does this sheet pull from an external site and update daily?

where do you pull the data from?

how about recent updates?

I pull the stats from soccerstats and while it does update, this has to be done manually by clicking the refresh button on the "Data" Ribbon/tab in the queries and connections box

I am currently in the states and as such and for no other reason other than my location I have produced a workbook for the MLS
Still in its infant stages as far as the season goes each team have only played a maximum of 2 games home or away (up to last Friday) so i haven't updated it yet to include this weekend matches.
I have also introduced a "Stats scoring system" where the different stats score "points" depending on certain factors
For instance : if the average OGS minute (Opening Goal Scored) by the home side is less than the league average for home OGS then I apportion so many points and if the OGS is more than the Avg OGS then it deducts points on a sliding scale, etc.
The following is a screenshot of the stats and scores from the NYC v Philadelphia game on friday night with current stats only up until Thursday
Being in an internet free zone as I was at the time of the game being played (I was on my way to the Bahamas on a boat that charged $20 a day for internet access) I was unable to get the betfair odds needed to complete the scoring system but you can see that even without these scores the total was quite high with 66/110
The game ended 0-2 with both goals coming in the first half

NYC v Philadelphia.png

[thepressure]

looks good, do you plan to share the sheet which covers every football match?

[shakey1964]

I have uploaded the MLS workbook onto my blog for anyone to download

http://bet-or-not.com/2022/03/22/mls-fi ... -workbook/

Please bear in mind that there is limited stats so far this season

[shakey1964]

To demonstrate what stats I have included into the worksheet The screenshot below is for the upcoming game between Charlotte FC and FC Cincinnati

Charlotte v Cincinnati.png

Row 5 shows the average minute OGS (opening goal scored) when the home team is home and the away team is away. In this case Charlotte have scored in the 6th minute on average and Cincinnati in the 13th. However, row 6 shows how many times the teams have scored the opening goal in their respective matches. Both teams have scored the opening goal just once each out of the two games they have played home and away respectively. So in fact Charlotte scored their opening goal in the 6th minute when they opened the scoring and Cincinnati in the 13th minute. When Charlotte played LA Galaxy on the 5th March the opening goal didn't arrive until the 77th minute and it was scored by Galaxy. Likewise, Cincinnati's first away game was against Austin where they got a good spanking losing 4-0 with the first goal coming after just 2 minutes! These stats you can see reflected in row 8 "Average minute OGC was Conceded" and row 9 "OGC Conceded at home"

The next 5 rows are all relevant to just the 1st half starting with "Percentage of OGC Conceded in 1st Half" - the higher the percentage the more likely the team will concede the OPENING goal in the first half. This should be taken with a pinch of salt however especially in the early stages of the season when the stats can be a bit more random than in the latter stages where a precedence is more profound. Rows 11 and 12 are self explanatory and show the percentage of games that have had over 0.5 goals and 1.5 goals scored in the first half and the higher the percentage the better.
Row 14 shows the percentage of games where the respective teams kept a clean sheet and in this case the lower the percentage the better
Finally the rows 15 and 16 are input figures where the odds entered are taken from betfair exchange and are the lay odds
Any questions

[shakey1964]

The following screenshots are from last Fridays games with thee stat scores and OGS times and team that scored beneath them

NYC v Philadelphia.png

NYC v Philadelphia

Stat points 66 (without odds bias) first goal 12 mins (Philadelphia)

Cincinnati v Inter Miami .png

Cincinnati v Inter Miami

Stat Points 36 (without odds bias) first goal 18 mins (Cincinnati)

Toronto v DC United.png

Toronto v DC United

Stat Points 48 (without odds bias) first Goal 10 mins (DC United)

[shakey1964]

would it be possible to share that sheet on this forum?

I have made workbooks available for the following leagues on my blog for anyone to download

Premiership
Championship
League 1
League 2
MLS
Australian A League
La Liga
La Liga 2

http://bet-or-not.com/2022/03/28/backin ... irst-half/

[MemphisFlash]

nice work on your sheets, very useful.

[shakey1964]

nice work on your sheets, very useful.

Thanks

Have just added
Bundesliga 1,2 and 3
and obscurely Columbia Primera, simply for tonights game between deporivo pasta and la equi-something

same place but right at the bottom of the post

[thepressure]

Amazing keen to look into

[shakey1964]

Players fail to understand my workbooks

Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets.png

This morning/evening/nights game between Perth glory and Newcastle jets scored a massive 79/110 without the odds bias added
(after an exhausting day at Busch Gardens yesterday I failed to get up in time)
After just switching on this morning I find that the players have taken absolutely no notice of my workbooks and have not scored in the first half - Why?
Looking at the screenshot I have noticed a huge flaw in the stats and the weighting of the points
If you look at the Total goals scored by both teams it is just 5 from 16 games and while the percentages of the other stats pan out it seems that in the case of these two teams in particular they are not scoring sides.
Plainly this is something to be aware of when doing additional research
I still think that this is a good tool for this sort of strategy but perhaps it is mainly a means of making a shortlist.