Laying The Draw in the Half-Time Market With a rescue package for a 0-0 H.T. Scoreline

[shakey1964]

Morning
Here is some analysis of yesterdays footy matches
As I mentioned above I set both files to run on all premiership and championship games yesterday and as a comparison set the original file to run on the full time match odds markets.
Blackburn v QPR
0-0 at half time triggered the rescue bet which laed the draw at 2.44 for £2.78. Because I was running another bot on the same market when the goal went in the green up part of the resue bot didnt actually trigger but the log shows that the draw odds were at 6.0

blackburn v qpr logs.png

I have now used my trusty "Matched Betting Calculator" to give some sort of Idea to any profit made if when the goal went in guardian, instead of greening up placed a fixed amount back bet into the market

blackburn v qpr Matched bet.png

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If you are able to see the above screen shot you will see that £2.78 laid at odds of 2.44 did indeed produce a liability of £4.00 but instead of guardian greening up, if the automation rule was set to fired a £3.00 back bet at the increased odds the goal caused then a profit of over £10.00 was made if the opposition didnt score. and 28p loss if they did
This would be a total profit of over £8 or a £2.28 loss.
This is just one match where the rescue file was triggered and is perhaps worth taking a better look at
In the next post I will look at the other object from yesterday which was the comparison between laying the half time market against laying the match odds market

[shakey1964]

Because I ran 2 separate files on the same market I have to sort out the logs to distinguish between the 2 automation files.
This post will concentrate on just the games where a goal was scored in the first half
Leeds Utd v Tottenham 4-0 (H-T 3-0)
I couldnt have hoped for a better start to the trial
Tottenham opened the scoring after 12 minutes and the automation filed worked like a dream

leeds v tottenham logs.png

The automation file placed in the H.T. market produced a profit of 72p at half time whereas the same file in the Match odds market produced a profit of just 19p at full time. If Leeds had equalised in the second half then this would have been cut to just 1p. Just to be fair to the exercise if Leeds had equal ised in the first half then the H.T. loss would have been 1p. This is a scenario that should be factored into this.
Other 1st half goal matches were
Premiership
Brighton v Aston Villa 0-2 (HT 0-1)
Brentford v Newcastle 0-2 (HT 0-2)
Crystal P. v Burnley 1-1 (HT 1-0)
Championship
Barnsley v Middlesboro 3-2 (HT 2-0)
Birmingham v Huddersfield 0-2 (HT 0-2)
Blackpool v Reading 4-1 (HT 1-1)
Bournemouth v Stoke 2-1 (HT 0-1)
Cardiff v Fulham 0-1 (HT 0-1)
Nottingham f. v Bristol C. 2-0 (HT 1-0)
Peterboro v Hull 0-3 (HT 0-1)

[shakey1964]

STOP STOP STOP!!

blackburn v qpr Matched bet.png

This is wrong
This would only be a profit if the result was a draw!
such as the Coventry City v Preston result
Back to the drawing board.

[MemphisFlash]

For those of you that have CGMBET this configuration may help with your lay the draw selections.

This configuration is searching for games where the home and away teams have scored a goal in each of their last 2 games in the first half,

to meet the following criteria :-

odds of the home team are in the range of 2.3-5.00
odds of the away team are in the range of 2.3-5.00
odds of the draw are in the range of 2.3-3.80

Lay the draw if both teams have scored a first half goal in each of their last 2 games.JPG

This is what it churned out for today!!!

Feb 2022.JPG

and totals for February 2022

[shakey1964]

For those of you that have CGMBET this configuration may help with your lay the draw selections.

This configuration is searching for games where the home and away teams have scored a goal in each of their last 2 games in the first half,

to meet the following criteria :-

odds of the home team are in the range of 2.3-5.00
odds of the away team are in the range of 2.3-5.00
odds of the draw are in the range of 2.3-3.80


Lay the draw if both teams have scored a first half goal in each of their last 2 games.JPG



This is what it churned out for today!!!


Feb 2022.JPG


and totals for February 2022

Is this worth the money
What version are you running here

[shakey1964]

Hi all
Thanks to MemphisFlash for sharing that stat software I have downloaded the free version which seem very limited but I am considering paying for the software as It is on a 50% discount at the moment
If you have an affiliate link to emable you to get paid when I but it please PM me with it I will use it gladly
As thepressure pointed out in a previous post perhaps using a rescue bet in the second half is not entirely a sensible thing to do, picking the right matches that have a high probability of a first half goal makes a lot of sense if the profits are that much higher in the Half-Time markets as the draw odds are that much lower and if or when a goal is scored the draw odds rise that much more
To this end I will concentrate now on criteria for picking probable matches in which a goal is more likely to be scored in the first half
I am not going to use practice mode as I will only be doing 1 or 2 games a day at first and will be using a £2.00 liability stake
This way I can hopefully slowly build a working bank for this strategy without compromising any other trades I might have going in the same day this will also help me build a picture up of the criteria needed to pull this off
Without further adoo the First game on the list and using soccerstats as a guide is:
Atalanta v Sampdoria
Over 0.5 goals scored at HT
Atalanta (home 58%) Sampdoria (Away 75)
Half Time scores
Atalanta 0-0 5 times other scores 7 times
Sampdoria 0-0 3 times other scores 9 times
First Half table
Atalanta GP 25 GF 24 GA 14
Sampdoria GP 26 GF 18 GA 23
(GP - Games Played GF - Goals for GA - Goals Against)
Odds for over 0.5 goals in first half 1.35
In summary then
From 25 games played Atalanta have scored 24 goals in the first half, this includes multiple goals in the same game!! they have also conceded 14 goals this also includes multiple goals in the same game but in 58% of home games there has been at least 1 goal in the first half. Sampdoria have a better record for goals scored in the first half (from this strategies point of view) as the percentage of at least 1 goal being scored before the half time whistle is 75% and from 26 games played 23 goals were scored against them in the first half. The question of over 0.5 goals odds being 1.35 is a matter for data building as are all of the stats shown above and I will welcome any other factors the readers of this post might deem relevant to the task in hand
This is just one game that I have outlined for tonight as listing all of the games today and their stats would take longer than the matches take to play.

[shakey1964]

Last Nights game produced a 82p profit thank you very much
Tonight I will be laying the draw in the Portsmouth v Oxford game starting at 19:45
Over 0.5 goals scored at HT
Portsmouth (home 75%) Oxford (Away 82%)
Half Time scores
Portsmouth 0-0 4 times other scores 12 times
Oxford 0-0 3 times other scores 14 times
First Half table
Portsmouth GP 32 GF 15 GA 15
Oxford GP 35 GF 34 GA 19
(GP - Games Played GF - Goals for GA - Goals Against)
Odds for over 0.5 goals in first half 1.45

[thepressure]

Interested to keep hearing about this.

I dont think you mentioned what was your overall £ P/L for all championship and premiership games?

How is the first half only running so far this week? I still cant get that 2nd half bot firing

Thanks

[shakey1964]

Interested to keep hearing about this.

I dont think you mentioned what was your overall £ P/L for all championship and premiership games?

How is the first half only running so far this week? I still cant get that 2nd half bot firing

Thanks

The second bet won't fire if a goal has been scored in the first half but I have binned this idea
Oxford have scored in the third minute and if Portsmouth don't reply in the next 25 mins then It will be 2 from 2

[shakey1964]

A 42nd minute goal from Portsmouth reduced the profit to 01p but then they scored again making it back to 70p

Profit now £1.52

[thepressure]

A 42nd minute goal from Portsmouth reduced the profit to 01p but then they scored again making it back to 70p

Profit now £1.52

Dont you green once a goal goes in, so doesnt what happen after make no differene?

[shakey1964]

A 42nd minute goal from Portsmouth reduced the profit to 01p but then they scored again making it back to 70p

Profit now £1.52

Dont you green once a goal goes in, so doesnt what happen after make no differene?

Wheres the fun in that
You could just replace the back bet part of the automation to "green all"
If I had of "cashed out" last night then in all likely hood the profit would have doubled if I had waited until 40 minutes because the cash out tends to "load up" the underdog.
The point of this particular bot is to increase the profit on a "result" and break even on a draw should it happen
If you want to just green up after a goal then take a look at this Bot
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=11309

[shakey1964]

Todays selection comes from the Italian "Serie B" and is Lecce v Ascoli
Over 0.5 goals scored at HT
Lecce (home 92%) Ascoli(Away 85%)
Half Time scores
Lecce 0-0 once other scores 12 times
Ascoli 0-0 twice other scores 11 times
First Half table
Lecce GP 26 GF 25 GA 9 (When playing at home GP 13 GF 18 GA 6)
Oxford GP 26 GF 20 GA 16 (When playing away GP 13 GF 9 GA 8)
(GP - Games Played GF - Goals for GA - Goals Against)
Odds for over 0.5 goals in first half 1.45

[shakey1964]

In the 24th minute Lecce scored and with no other goals up to half time at the end of 45 minutes I was £1.03 richer
Total Profit £2.55 from 3 out of 3

[shakey1964]

No bet today - lots of cup matches and it seems that they tend to defy the stats on the whole. Also I work with a complete **shole jack bast**d and a spineless transport manager who put 2 of sh*tferbrains deliveries onto me so I am a little late back