Laying The Draw in the Half-Time Market With a rescue package for a 0-0 H.T. Scoreline

[shakey1964]

Actually I was doing a blog post and completely by accident came across the FC Basel v St Gallen game tonight and started to look at the stats with more depth than I have been previously
Starting with the league averages for the Swiss Super League it seems that they have more than their fair share of goals.
Looking at the "First" tab on the league page this gives all the stats for first goals scored, which is exactly what we need for a foundation for the research into the probability of at least 1 goal being scored in the first half.
The following table shows that FC Basel, on average score first in the 33rd minute when playing at home (St Gallen have a better FG (first Goal) ave time of 22 minutes but they are away)

fc Basel opening goals.png

They also score their first goal in the first half 71% of the time
St Gallen on the other hand, when they are playing away score their opening goal, on average, 30 minutes into the game and score first 83% of the time in the first half.

st gallen opening goals.png

I then looked at the Opening goals conceded and discover that St Gallen have conceded first 100% of the time ( or all of the goals scored against them first) have all been in the first half

st gallen opening conceded goals.png

I have then looked at the first half table which is the last piece of criteria in previous posts and see that FC Basel have played 23 games and have 22 goals to their name in the first half and when playing at home their record is even better having played 11 home games and scoring 13 times. On the other side of the coin, St Gallen like to conceded goals in the first half when playing away having played 11 and conceded 13 (second only to Sion and Luzern)
Out of 11 games played at home only 4 games have been 0-0 at half time for FC Basel
Out of 11 games played by St Gallen away only 1 game has been 0-0 at Half time
Therefore I will change my mind on the no bet decision and plum for this game this evening.
Keep them crossed

[shakey1964]

Two quick goals in 20 and 22 minutes by st gallen secured the bet but being the underdog profit just 40p
Total profit £2.92

[thepressure]

So youre just straight going for FH goals now?

[shakey1964]

So youre just straight going for FH goals now?

Yes
And to this end I have produced an excel workbook that will hopefully provide a quick reference to opening goals, goals for and goals away in the 1st half as well as percentages of games where over 0.5 goals were scored in the 1st half
This is just for the premiership but will be producing more for other leagues if, after today when the results are in,when I refresh the queries they update.
The file is too large to post on the forum so I have stuck it into my blog account
https://bet-or-not.com/2022/03/05/excel ... irst-half/
It provides the following information at a glance
OGS Home tab : This is sorted by the OGS (opening goals scored and then by the average of the time in minutes) for instance top of the list is Southampton who have opened the scoring when they are at home 10 times this season so far with an avereage of scoring in the 24th minute This table also includes the league average for the league this season
OGS Away tab : Exactly the same as above but for away teams
GF in 1st half at home tab: This table shows the number of games played and is sorted into the teams that have scored the most goals in the 1st half this season in order of highest to lowest for example Manchester City have played 13 home games and have scored 17 goals in the 1st half of these games averaging 1.3 per game
GF in 1st Half Away Same as for the home table
Match goal stats at HT (Home) tab This table is sorted into the highest percentage of games that over 0.5 goals have been scored in the first half for instance 85% of games where Leeds Utd are at home have had at least 1 goal scored before half time
Match Goal Stats at HT (Away)tab Same as above but for away games

[shakey1964]

Using the workbook the following stats for the lunchtime kickoff between Leicester and Leeds can be gleaned

Leicester City have opened the scoring 6 times in the first half when at home averaging 37 minutes they have scored a total of 9 goals from 12 games and conceded 10. 75% of their games have ended at half time with at least 1 goal being scored.

Leeds Utd have also opened the scoring 6 times when they have been away from home but they tend to score 10 minutes earlier than Leicester with an average goal time of 27 minutes. After 13 away games they have scored 7 goals in the 1st half and conceded more than twice that with 15 goals being scored against them in the 1st half. 69% of their games have ended at half time with at least 1 goal being scored.

[shakey1964]

No joy with the leicester v leeds game
So profit down to 92p
However My research flagged up 4 games in the prem and championship
3pm kickoffs
Aston Villa v Southampton Profit 69p
Derby v Barnsley Profit £1.18
Middlesborough v Luton Profit £1.03

17:30 kick off
Liverpool v West Ham

[shakey1964]

Liverpool took their time but came through for a 63p profit
Total Profit £4.45

[shakey1964]

I have been busy this morning creating a workbook that will display relevent information just by selecting the home team and away team on a summary sheet.
This one is solely for the Italian Serie A league and provides an at a glace statistics as shown in the screenshot below

serie A summary sheet.png

The home and away teams can be selected from drop down boxes indicated by the green ovals.
This will then display and colour code the specific data for those teams from when they were playing home or away
As ever my workbooks are too big to post on the forum so I have stuck it on a blog page as usual
https://bet-or-not.com/2022/03/06/serie ... -workbook/
This also updates when you click the refresh button on the data tab in the queries and connections box
This has taken about 6 hours to produce this morning so any feedback and comments would be appreciated with a view to producing more for more leagues
Have fun

[shakey1964]

This is what it produced for the Genoa v Empoli game being played this morning

genoa v empoli.png

More red than green No Bet

[thepressure]

Not many matches popping up, are you doing Prem only?

[shakey1964]

Once we have more green than red we can start to look at the game more closely as in the game between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona as shown below

Fiorentina v Hellas Verona.png

The percentage of opening goals (OPG) scored in the 1st half is 89% and 88%
the %age of games where over 0.5 goals were scored in the 1st half is 83% and 85% and even games that were over 1.5 goals in the 1st half were both over the league average
one negative on this is that Fiorentina kept a clean sheet in 75% of games when they were at home in the 1st half

[shakey1964]

Not many matches popping up, are you doing Prem only?

This one is for Serie A only
I will do mre as time goes on

[shakey1964]

This is what it produced for the Genoa v Empoli game being played this morning
genoa v empoli.png

More red than green No Bet

0-0 at H.T.

[Derek27]

I love the term 'rescue package'.

[shakey1964]

I love the term 'rescue package'.

It was a thought that didn't really become viable as the compounded losses outweighed the gains