Im trying to learn trading

[Vanker71]

Hi guys, im new here but im studying trading world since few months.. i found some strategies around the web and tried to apply them with bad results.. in particular im doing research matches and backing the team that i suppose could win/score first in the game, and cash put after the goal comes in or if the other team score i cash out with a loss, or if it is a draw i exit around 70' with a loss too.. i was using like 10 pounds stakes and to be honest i was doing pretty well with 60+ profit in a week but it got worse and lost about 45 with a remaining profit of 15 pounds..

At this point i am a bit confused about if this could be a good trading strategy, or if i am looking for wrong things on prematch research.. any tips?

[Anbell]

Hi guys, im new here but im studying trading world since few months.. i found some strategies around the web and tried to apply them with bad results.. in particular im doing research matches and backing the team that i suppose could win/score first in the game, and cash put after the goal comes in or if the other team score i cash out with a loss, or if it is a draw i exit around 70' with a loss too.. i was using like 10 pounds stakes and to be honest i was doing pretty well with 60+ profit in a week but it got worse and lost about 45 with a remaining profit of 15 pounds..

At this point i am a bit confused about if this could be a good trading strategy, or if i am looking for wrong things on prematch research.. any tips?

Two tips:
1) it takes more than a week to know if your strategy has an edge
2) price is important

[Vanker71]

Hi guys, im new here but im studying trading world since few months.. i found some strategies around the web and tried to apply them with bad results.. in particular im doing research matches and backing the team that i suppose could win/score first in the game, and cash put after the goal comes in or if the other team score i cash out with a loss, or if it is a draw i exit around 70' with a loss too.. i was using like 10 pounds stakes and to be honest i was doing pretty well with 60+ profit in a week but it got worse and lost about 45 with a remaining profit of 15 pounds..

At this point i am a bit confused about if this could be a good trading strategy, or if i am looking for wrong things on prematch research.. any tips?

Two tips:
1) it takes more than a week to know if your strategy has an edge
2) price is important

In your opinion it could be a valid strategy? Because i heard only about strategies that involve time decay on unders. People say that the research process is much mote important than the strategy

[Anbell]

Hi guys, im new here but im studying trading world since few months.. i found some strategies around the web and tried to apply them with bad results.. in particular im doing research matches and backing the team that i suppose could win/score first in the game, and cash put after the goal comes in or if the other team score i cash out with a loss, or if it is a draw i exit around 70' with a loss too.. i was using like 10 pounds stakes and to be honest i was doing pretty well with 60+ profit in a week but it got worse and lost about 45 with a remaining profit of 15 pounds..

At this point i am a bit confused about if this could be a good trading strategy, or if i am looking for wrong things on prematch research.. any tips?

Two tips:
1) it takes more than a week to know if your strategy has an edge
2) price is important

In your opinion it could be a valid strategy? Because i heard only about strategies that involve time decay on unders. People say that the research process is much mote important than the strategy

Every strategy is valid if the price is right.

And I also think that this is the best starting point assumption: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/efficient- ... efficient/

[Trader724]

Unfortunately in this area assumptions are worthless. You have to measure everything and know everything in figures.

You need to create a model that estimates the correct price as accurately as possible.

The fact that you've been studying for a few months and haven't picked up the basics means that you're not doing what it takes to progress.

Be aware that knowing something but not enough is more dangerous than knowing nothing.

Choose your niche carefully because that dictates who your competitors will be, and never underestimate them like you already have.

Most things are simple but you need to know when, what to do and what not to do, however simple, and that's for you to figure out and you won't succeed without hard work and commitment.

[ShaunWhite]

Where's the strategy? You're just backing and laying when there is/isn't a goal, and because markets are efficient you're just ending up with a load of bets at reasonably fair prices.

Anyone can think of some sort of back/lay/time/goal/blah/blah/blah strategy but the only important thing when you're betting is getting advantageous prices. "Trading" doesn't make 2 bets anything other than 2 bets no matter how you dress it up.

[Vanker71]

Two tips:
1) it takes more than a week to know if your strategy has an edge
2) price is important

In your opinion it could be a valid strategy? Because i heard only about strategies that involve time decay on unders. People say that the research process is much mote important than the strategy

Every strategy is valid if the price is right.

And I also think that this is the best starting point assumption: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/efficient- ... efficient/

Wow really nice, thanks a lot man

[Vanker71]

Unfortunately in this area assumptions are worthless. You have to measure everything and know everything in figures.

You need to create a model that estimates the correct price as accurately as possible.

The fact that you've been studying for a few months and haven't picked up the basics means that you're not doing what it takes to progress.

Be aware that knowing something but not enough is more dangerous than knowing nothing.

Choose your niche carefully because that dictates who your competitors will be, and never underestimate them like you already have.

Most things are simple but you need to know when, what to do and what not to do, however simple, and that's for you to figure out and you won't succeed without hard work and commitment.

Very thanks i was ignoring a fundamental part of this world... i will study very hard because understood that have a lot to learn, can you suggest me some video or article ?

[Vanker71]

Where's the strategy? You're just backing and laying when there is/isn't a goal, and because markets are efficient you're just ending up with a load of bets at reasonably fair prices.

Anyone can think of some sort of back/lay/time/goal/blah/blah/blah strategy but the only important thing when you're betting is getting advantageous prices. "Trading" doesn't make 2 bets anything other than 2 bets no matter how you dress it up.

You're completely right, and it was a big newbie mistake.. but the thing is how can i stimate the "right price" i mean is out of there a software that help me to stimate things like if a goal comes in how the odds changes or i should paper trade until i find the right one that consent me to be profitable in the long run? Im sorry if my question are "stupid" but i am trying to understand things that never have before

[goat68]

In your opinion it could be a valid strategy? Because i heard only about strategies that involve time decay on unders. People say that the research process is much mote important than the strategy

Every strategy is valid if the price is right.

And I also think that this is the best starting point assumption: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/efficient- ... efficient/

Wow really nice, thanks a lot man

Say you take something like soccer mystic from BA, that plots the theoretical price decays...
Where do think value prices might be?

[Trader724]

Very thanks i was ignoring a fundamental part of this world... i will study very hard because understood that have a lot to learn, can you suggest me some video or article ?

At this stage you need to absorb as much information as possible, google everything you are interested in because there is a lot of educational material, don't buy anything because you won't get much more information than what is available for free.
If you are passionate about it and you become dedicated to it you will naturally find your way and the fact that you will have more and more work to do is a good indicator that you are doing the right thing.

[Vanker71]

Every strategy is valid if the price is right.

And I also think that this is the best starting point assumption: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/efficient- ... efficient/

Wow really nice, thanks a lot man

Say you take something like soccer mystic from BA, that plots the theoretical price decays...
Where do think value prices might be?

lets assume that im trading time decay on under 2.5 in the first 10 minutes , the "value" would be in the highest price that i could get at the start maybe so i can wait for the price to decrease and cash out with a profit... am i right? In this scenario i would avoid prices that start alredy small (1.15 for example) but i should try to find a price high ath the point that consents to me to make profit in the long run by covering losses or part of them etc... is my thinking right? If it is how can i do that? I mean i should use a demo account or something

[Vanker71]

Very thanks i was ignoring a fundamental part of this world... i will study very hard because understood that have a lot to learn, can you suggest me some video or article ?

At this stage you need to absorb as much information as possible, google everything you are interested in because there is a lot of educational material, don't buy anything because you won't get much more information than what is available for free.
If you are passionate about it and you become dedicated to it you will naturally find your way and the fact that you will have more and more work to do is a good indicator that you are doing the right thing.

Thank you a lot man

[ShaunWhite]

[]
lets assume that im trading time decay on under 2.5 in the first 10 minutes , the "value" would be in the highest price that i could get at the start maybe so i can wait for the price to decrease and cash out with a profit... am i right?

No. Value is simply obtaining a price better or worse than the real world likelihood of an event happening. regardless of it being 100/1 or 1.1. Eg 2.0 on a coin toss isn't value, 2.2 would be.

But value aside, the best football traders (ie people such as Psychoff & Paulo Rebelo and others ) use their experience and judgement to watch what's occurring in a game (action, inactivity, apathy, incentive, injuries etc etc) to decide when to bet. Eg if you're trading time decay then a boring game is ideal, end to end action probably isn't.

[Vanker71]

[]
lets assume that im trading time decay on under 2.5 in the first 10 minutes , the "value" would be in the highest price that i could get at the start maybe so i can wait for the price to decrease and cash out with a profit... am i right?

No. Value is simply obtaining a price better or worse than the real world likelihood of an event happening. regardless of it being 100/1 or 1.1. Eg 2.0 on a coin toss isn't value, 2.2 would be.

But value aside, the best football traders (ie people such as Psychoff & Paulo Rebelo and others ) use their experience and judgement to watch what's occurring in a game (action, inactivity, apathy, incentive, injuries etc etc) to decide when to bet. Eg if you're trading time decay then a boring game is ideal, end to end action probably isn't.

okay i was completely wrong... but with this assumption how can i get a value price in a scenario of time decay for example? How could i know if a price is good or bad? How can i know the REAL value of something like under/over? This seems a bit difficult to me

The problem is that i looked at trading in the wrong way for all of this time