Im trying to learn trading

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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jimibt
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Location: Narnia

Vanker71 wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:24 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:59 am
Vanker71 wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:35 am
[]
lets assume that im trading time decay on under 2.5 in the first 10 minutes , the "value" would be in the highest price that i could get at the start maybe :roll: so i can wait for the price to decrease and cash out with a profit... am i right?
No. Value is simply obtaining a price better or worse than the real world likelihood of an event happening. regardless of it being 100/1 or 1.1. Eg 2.0 on a coin toss isn't value, 2.2 would be.

But value aside, the best football traders (ie people such as Psychoff & Paulo Rebelo and others ) use their experience and judgement to watch what's occurring in a game (action, inactivity, apathy, incentive, injuries etc etc) to decide when to bet. Eg if you're trading time decay then a boring game is ideal, end to end action probably isn't.
:| okay i was completely wrong... :lol: but with this assumption how can i get a value price in a scenario of time decay for example? How could i know if a price is good or bad? How can i know the REAL value of something like under/over? This seems a bit difficult to me

The problem is that i looked at trading in the wrong way for all of this time
fortunately, it's only a few months, so you now have the opportunity to research further on topics such as value, game analysis etc... a long journey, but if it was simple, obviously, everyone would be doing it.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Vanker71 wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:24 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:59 am
Vanker71 wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:35 am
[]
lets assume that im trading time decay on under 2.5 in the first 10 minutes , the "value" would be in the highest price that i could get at the start maybe :roll: so i can wait for the price to decrease and cash out with a profit... am i right?
No. Value is simply obtaining a price better or worse than the real world likelihood of an event happening. regardless of it being 100/1 or 1.1. Eg 2.0 on a coin toss isn't value, 2.2 would be.

But value aside, the best football traders (ie people such as Psychoff & Paulo Rebelo and others ) use their experience and judgement to watch what's occurring in a game (action, inactivity, apathy, incentive, injuries etc etc) to decide when to bet. Eg if you're trading time decay then a boring game is ideal, end to end action probably isn't.
:| okay i was completely wrong... :lol: but with this assumption how can i get a value price in a scenario of time decay for example? How could i know if a price is good or bad? How can i know the REAL value of something like under/over? This seems a bit difficult to me

The problem is that i looked at trading in the wrong way for all of this time
I think Shaun has explained, but soccer mystic is just a pure mathematical value based on current state of play and time left I believe...
So say current price is 1.8, you would thus know offering a Back at 2.0 over the long term would definitely be value "at that exact point in time".

I was looking at it the wrong way for a very long time too !!
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ShaunWhite
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Vanker71 wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:24 pm
How could i know if a price is good or bad? This seems a bit difficult to me
Experience.
So, eg time decay value. That could be your option of the likelihood of a goal in the next 5mins vs the amount the odds will move if there's a home goal, away goal or no goal in the next 5 mins. Risk vs reward. It's not so much that you think a given price is correct for the final result, just if it's going to be x% better or worse in the next minute, 10mins or 30mins etc. And when that time comes around, how does it look now... should you increase your position, reduce it , or close completely. It's a process of continual assessment.

But there's lots of ways to do it. Just keep in mind the chance that something will or won't happen, and the amount the odds will move in either of those situations. But get used to being wrong, you only need to be right slightly more often than being wrong to make money. And don't get married to old decisions, what you thought or did a minute ago is completely irrelevant if what you're seeing has changed.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:07 pm
I think Shaun has explained, but soccer mystic is just a pure mathematical value based on current state of play and time left I believe...
So say current price is 1.8, you would thus know offering a Back at 2.0 over the long term would definitely be value "at that exact point in time".

I was looking at it the wrong way for a very long time too !!
That's not quite what I meant. Your take on value is vs the outcome. Time decay value about the likelihood of the size and direction of a price change, and the timeframe in which that occurs. The outcome is at the end of the timeframe, not the result of the game/race.
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Vanker71 wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:35 am




How could i know if a price is good or bad? How can i know the REAL value of something like under/over?

As I said before, you have to create a model based on stats and other elements that can alter the real chances of an event to have a certain outcome and you will have your own estimated price that you can compare with the market price and if your model is good you can capitalize on the discrepancy between them.

Another way to find value in time decay is to watch the odds and the match and if the price starts to no longer accurately reflect the elapsed time (e.g. at 1-1 the odds for a draw stagnate for no apparent reason although they should shorten, especially near the end of the match) chances are good that backing the draw at that price will contain value.
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