Market manipulation?

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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greety
Posts: 153
Joined: Wed May 16, 2012 7:16 pm

Hi Guys.
I'd appreciate the views of experienced football traders.
All through the summer I've been trying to find an "edge" on the inplay football markets. Generally by trying to play two markets of against each other. I've found a risk free bet during a match which I guess is'nt too bad.
Now I know Betfair generally have efficient markets, i.e 100% book but what has amazed me, is how frustratingly brilliant Betfair is.
I've read various articles over the years about how BF use algorithms which would explain how the markets all align so perfectly. But you would think, if it was just punter against punter the markets would'nt be that perfect.
What I am getting at is, do Betfair manipulate the football markets? Or other markets for that matter? O rperhaps, after all this time, I still don't fully understand how BF really works.
Your thoughts please.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

greety wrote:
Wed Jul 27, 2022 4:21 pm
. But you would think, if it was just punter against punter the markets would'nt be that perfect.
They are, there's 00s of full-time pros, many have been developing systems over decades, market efficency and cross market pricing is ruthless.....and 'efficiency' isn't just the overround, its also the accuracy of the prices on offer. Regular "punters" are just a small and fairly inconsequential part of the ecosystem.
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Euler
Posts: 24702
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Betfair introduced cross matching in 2008 on football. So the book always 'hugs' 100%, but went a step further a few years later and implemented cross market cross matching, so an order in one market will appear as a reciprocal price on another market.
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jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

greety wrote:
Wed Jul 27, 2022 4:21 pm
Hi Guys.
I'd appreciate the views of experienced football traders.
All through the summer I've been trying to find an "edge" on the inplay football markets. Generally by trying to play two markets of against each other. I've found a risk free bet during a match which I guess is'nt too bad.
Now I know Betfair generally have efficient markets, i.e 100% book but what has amazed me, is how frustratingly brilliant Betfair is.
I've read various articles over the years about how BF use algorithms which would explain how the markets all align so perfectly. But you would think, if it was just punter against punter the markets would'nt be that perfect.
What I am getting at is, do Betfair manipulate the football markets? Or other markets for that matter? O rperhaps, after all this time, I still don't fully understand how BF really works.
Your thoughts please.
I spent hours writing what I thought was a sophisticated Guardian rule that scoured multiple related football markets for combinations that return less than a 100% back book. Ran it across thousands and thousands of fixtures....and not one single bean.
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alexmr2
Posts: 766
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Betfair makes commission from the turnover of their customers just by running the platform, I doubt they go to the effort and legal risk of unethically participating in their own markets.

I wouldn't expect market manipulation in the traditional sense on big football markets either because there is just too much money and they are too efficient. On thinner markets like poor quality races it would be much more feasible that someone could use techniques to try and trick other participants
greety
Posts: 153
Joined: Wed May 16, 2012 7:16 pm

Thanks Guys.
Pretty much what I expected.
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