pre game Or live stats re better for predictions?

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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MakeThat$$$
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue May 24, 2022 7:16 am

hey all
i m wondering if one is better than the other

there re many sites that providing the live stats of a game like shoots,possesion even pressure
and hey claim that by using these you will be able to predict the goals
sometimes this helps sometimes not

there have been games wit 60 shoots on + off taget and the score remain 0 - 0
im comfused and do not know what to trust



what do you think ?
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

This video should answer your question
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ihkv3kSWt-Y
MakeThat$$$
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue May 24, 2022 7:16 am

Dallas wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:09 pm
This video should answer your question
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ihkv3kSWt-Y
you have been using poison?
how did it work for you?
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

MakeThat$$$ wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:01 pm

there have been games wit 60 shoots on + off taget and the score remain 0 - 0
im comfused and do not know what to trust
You can't and shouldn't 'trust' anything, live or historic stats (and all trading/betting) is about finding small differences between the odds on offer and the real world chance. It's not about being right or wrong it's about being slightly more right than wrong and even very successful strategies do a LOT of losing.

Eg the situation you describe happens, it always will. So what is the probability it will happen and what are the odds on offer that it will happen.
MakeThat$$$
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue May 24, 2022 7:16 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Aug 11, 2022 11:58 am
It's not about being right or wrong it's about being slightly more right than wrong and even very successful strategies do a LOT of losing.

ok
but how do you do that ?
you have to based it on smth right?
if not on past or live stats then on what?
MakeThat$$$
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue May 24, 2022 7:16 am

bump
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

MakeThat$$$ wrote:
Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:37 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Aug 11, 2022 11:58 am
It's not about being right or wrong it's about being slightly more right than wrong and even very successful strategies do a LOT of losing.

ok
but how do you do that ?
you have to based it on smth right?
if not on past or live stats then on what?
You'd use past and live stats, but margins (edges) are pretty small so it's about losing slightly less often than expected rather than finding a magic winning formula.

As for how, then there's no one way and it depends on people's skills & interests. Some might be keen watchers of the game and be able to find situations where they disagree with the odds on offer, others might never watch the game and throw all the stats into sophisticated analysis software to calculate probabilities.

Generally though it's about using your stats to make a prediction.... And then looking at the actual outcomes, if there's a big difference then the model is altered and the cycle begins again. You're trying to devise an accurate model/opinion, and then looking for situations where the markets offer a better or worse chance.

But all betting is about finding value, if you back 50/50 chances at 1.9 you'll lose in the long run, but back them at 2.1 and you'll make money.
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