Atho55 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:35 pmThis is a musing prompted by the Matthew Trenhaile article. It`s based upon Pinnacle odds and uses the Home Win odds as a comparator to actual full time scores. Simply, Home win odds = 2.0, 305 fixtures, 144 Home Wins, 83 Draws, 78 Away wins. The initial odds are =(FLOOR) in Excel to group such that each odd value has numerous entries. This is the Premier League from 2004 to 2022 (games played) and plots the Home Win Odds on the bottom axis and the % of games that ended Home Win, Draw or Away Win.
Pinn1.jpg
So by taking the home win odds from the Pinnacle site you can find the corresponding value on the bottom axis and read off how the Pinnacle estimations evolved into actual %`s. The home win odds on the lower axis are NOT the full extent of the values available but the graph loses clarity as more are shown.
Pinn2.jpg
Thanks for posting, nice graphics.
I should be using the Pinnacle site for odds comparison.