Sports Trading Life

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Kai
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:13 pm
Market selection is absolutely fine if you don't fall foul of backfitting and don't try to do it in real time. There's often a lack of understanding about statistical relevance and sample size and people see a few losing weeks on say 'handicaps' and then assume they're not suitable.
Market selection is also the default excuse for many system sellers out there on why their strategy won't end up profitable for you, so that's something to watch out for.

If their main selling point is something as blatantly obvious as needing the right market for this strategy and then wishing you luck on finding those without teaching you how to find them, I'd look elsewhere.
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Frogmella
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[/quote]

Market selection is also the default excuse for many system sellers out there on why their strategy won't end up profitable for you, so that's something to watch out for.

If their main selling point is something as blatantly obvious as needing the right market for this strategy and then wishing you luck on finding those without teaching you how to find them, I'd look elsewhere.
[/quote]

All the caveats are about shifting liability for failure away from the seller of whatever system in whatever field.

My favourite is:

Its all about psychology (in other words: its all your fault)
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Kai
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Dallas wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:18 am
"For every strategy there is a market and for every market there is a strategy..... the job for a trader is to match those together"
As true as that rings, not sure how much immediate use newbies actually get from soundbites like these.

It implies they already have different strategies prepared and carefully built one by one over time, and that they have the basic ability to read different market conditions accordingly.

Instead of reactively struggling to apply a rough idea of a strategy to any random market you run into, why not proactively look for market conditions and setups you KNOW are profitable.

In other words many are trying to trade different markets on different sports trying to decide which strategy to apply, while at the same time being in possession of 0 (as in zero) profitable strategies, it makes zero sense.

To any newbies reading shortcut threads like these, if that sounds like you, it could be time to get to work and start building your first strategy somewhere, no matter how often the market generates that particular opportunity, you have to start somewhere...
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Kai
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Frogmella wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:37 pm
All the caveats are about shifting liability for failure away from the seller of whatever system in whatever field.

My favourite is:

Its all about psychology (in other words: its all your fault)
Well, I don't think it's a coincidence that one of the best football traders out there (in Psychoff) happens to be a retired psychiatrist as well. His target audience is clearly towards higher rollers etc which do exist, ultimately the market determines the price and value of something, does it not?

But it just goes to show that to truly unlock some of that trading potential you practically almost have to be a psychology major. Yesterday I've purchased a psychology course from a renowned young expert in the field, because he is producing groundbreaking work in the very specific areas that are of great interest to me, so that's how much importance I place on it.

The best trading shortcut that I personally know is to cut out the middleman and go straight to the market itself, being devoid of trading ideas or influencer biases means a clean mental slate so that's not bad either. Can always just try to observe, analyze and learn everything about a specific market until you start seeing trading opportunities pop up and start getting decent ideas on how exploit them. I can't say it any more succinct than that, good luck.
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Frogmella
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Thanks for your input Kai. You've certainly given me some things to think about.

If you're interested in psychology I would recommend a book called "Influence, Science and Practice" by Robert Cialdini.
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ShaunWhite
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I'm a big Kai fan. I don't know of any other poster on this forum who's so constantly spot on. Maybe if he charged £20 per private message people would take more notice.
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Euler
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Frogmella wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:35 pm
Thanks for your input Kai. You've certainly given me some things to think about.

If you're interested in psychology I would recommend a book called "Influence, Science and Practice" by Robert Cialdini.
I spent the first part of my career completely looking at the market, structure and where it was mispriced.

The second half of my career has been spent looking at biases, why they occur and then thinking through how and where they will occur in the market. It completely transformed my trading.
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Euler
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On the matter from the OP.

I noticed Ben doesn't show his face and isn't allowing comments on this videos. Bid red flag. I know he doesn't use his real name either.

I am constantly surprised at how people fall for this sort of stuff. I mean Alex Ong became really popular really quickly despite obviously having little to no experience of Betfair trading. He eventually unpublished all this videos and focused on Forex (Again).

BTW - I'm all for teaching people how to trade and encouraging activity on the exchanges, but one of the major problems I have when I try and talk positely about my experience in the markets is I often get thrown into the trash heap with people who are there to exploit the market.

I'd like to make a point that if anybody feels I've incorrectly called them out, then just give me your BF account managers name and I'll clarify with them and apologise and retract.
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Frogmella
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In a goldrush, its the people that SUPPLY the miners that make the most money.

In this game, the "miners" seek information above all else and even old information is new, to new "miners".

"In the Kingdom of the Blind the one-eyed man is King."
jamesg46
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Talking of unhelpful sound bites… & particularly one I’ve always disliked is “the only way to make money on the exchange is to bet at value”. It was always the go to serving of advice… or the “prescription” offered as the remedy for newbie trader struggles.

Anyway back to STL, is that the chap that always has the half naked women as a thumbnail to his YT videos? Gotta hand it to the guy (if it is), what a way to lure the desperate degenerate males… I bet Derek is a subscriber.
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ShaunWhite
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jamesg46 wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:29 pm
one I’ve always disliked is “the only way to make money on the exchange is to bet at value”.
It's actually mathematically true, but again this comes down to trading methods. It's perfectly possible to obtain value (inadvertently) by using price movement, or you can obtain it through fundamentals and SP, or.... you can obtain it through large scale HFT. The issue comes from seeing the word "value" and it being associated with good old fashioned "value" betting when it's actually the consequence of many styles of betting/trading.

I agree with the sentiment of what you're saying and it needn't even figure in your day to day thinking but understanding it's at the core of your bottomline does help.

Horses and dogs are complicated but keeping it simple.... if you lay Tony Adams to win Strictly at 2.0 would you seriously back him at 2 1 simply to get a green? Now tell me value isn't a consideration :) You'd use your subjectivity to wait until he's nearer 500/1
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ShaunWhite
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.... when trading movement, you're saying you think the price now isn't what it will be at some point in the future. And as all markets tend towards efficient as they evolve, the entries are more inefficient (ie value) than the exits and positions are therefore net value.

Incidentally its not even possible to know if price A or Price B is value on any given market so that's why its of limitted interest to movement traders, but if the sum of greens is bigger than the sum of the reds at the end of the year, then it is the case.
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decomez6
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:29 pm

Incidentally its not even possible to know if price A or Price B is value on any given market so that's why its of limitted interest to movement traders, but if the sum of greens is bigger than the sum of the reds at the end of the year, then it is the case.
in the same market you have two selections @ Odds on .
one is trading a tick below the crossover point and the other a tick above it
i think value is when i see it and i know why :)
jamesg46
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:16 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:29 pm
one I’ve always disliked is “the only way to make money on the exchange is to bet at value”.
It's actually mathematically true, but again this comes down to trading methods. It's perfectly possible to obtain value (inadvertently) by using price movement, or you can obtain it through fundamentals and SP, or.... you can obtain it through large scale HFT. The issue comes from seeing the word "value" and it being associated with good old fashioned "value" betting when it's actually the consequence of many styles of betting/trading.

I agree with the sentiment of what you're saying and it needn't even figure in your day to day thinking but understanding it's at the core of your bottomline does help.

Horses and dogs are complicated but keeping it simple.... if you lay Tony Adams to win Strictly at 2.0 would you seriously back him at 2 1 simply to get a green? Now tell me value isn't a consideration :) You'd use your subjectivity to wait until he's nearer 500/1
If you were one of the people who were laying this at 2ish because of the current price action (at that time) then would you of layed at a value price or at around BSP? If you then took your position out at the very top (I know that’s not realistic) would you be exiting at a place of back value?
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ShaunWhite
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I don't know James, It's not possible to know what the true value of any individual animal is in any one race, no matter what the charts do. If its feeling belligerent then 10/1 might not be a value back, if its main opposition is destined to be a non-trier then 1.5 might be good. The concept of value is only evident on larger sample(*) . It's why I said its fairly irrelevant to race-by-race traders, but as it's the maths that underpins why winners win and losers lose it does no harm to be aware of it.

(*) eg BSP is known to be 'correct' on large samples but it's a statistical impossibility that it's correct on everything that that's ever run or will run.

Anyway James it's not my made up view it's just the way betting works :) and whether you have 1 bet or 10 bets per market they're still just bets.

In fact I couldn't see it myself at first either but knowing it had to be the case through pure logic, it became a matter of understanding how and why it was true no matter what method you used. Doing that unlocked ways to bet profitably I'd never considered before and definately stopped me from having losing bets that would otherwise been seen as OK because the bottom line was positive.

... Even I'm bored with me now :roll: so I'll stop.
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