Is it real to create a fork with guaranteed profit in football game?

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
Post Reply
onlywin
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:38 pm

I'm sure it's real using prematch betting and live betting together. Using differetnt markets such as correct score, time/match, totals, result, asian handicap etc, combination of them and then insure in live so as not to get a minus if their is a risk in the game in live.
Many players wrote about it, but did not reveal their secrets.
Maybe anyone can give some information about it or the hint?
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6099
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

If you're asking whether it's possible to guarantee risk-free profit by combining various football markets, then I would say no.

It can sound like an enticing idea at first but you would probably be wasting your time trying to outsmart Betfair's pricing algorithms.
User avatar
jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

No longer possible pre kick off in my opinion. You can get to about 100.1% with reasonable regularity but nothing with any volume under 100% and certainly nothing under the 99% you would need to beat a 2% commission.

In-play may be possible but the time delays will sometimes make you miss out on the prices that you need and I imagine risk would outweigh reward.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

onlywin wrote:
Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:05 am
I'm sure it's real using prematch betting and live betting together. Using differetnt markets such as correct score, time/match, totals, result, asian handicap etc, combination of them and then insure in live so as not to get a minus if their is a risk in the game in live.
Many players wrote about it, but did not reveal their secrets.
Maybe anyone can give some information about it or the hint?
Any such method that can guarantee a profit across markets is likely to have a very very small percentage profit and require large stakes. Newbies often look for these sure-fire strategies but taking risks actually increases the potential profit you can make and is a much better aim to work towards.
onlywin
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:38 pm

I dont mean that you bet in prematch and then wait guaranteed profit. No....
You should bet different markets of the game in prematch and then watching how events in the game will go on. You can lose only in 1-2 cases,
If the score is good for you (giving profit) and not dangerous you only wait but if the situation become dangerous you will use some of the stake from potentially winning bets and insure the risks of losing on those bets which were losing in the prematch
I think its real... But not in every game and hard to count...
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

onlywin wrote:
Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:05 pm
I dont mean that you bet in prematch and then wait guaranteed profit. No....
You should bet different markets of the game in prematch and then watching how events in the game will go on. You can lose only in 1-2 cases,
If the score is good for you (giving profit) and not dangerous you only wait but if the situation become dangerous you will use some of the stake from potentially winning bets and insure the risks of losing on those bets which were losing in the prematch
I think its real... But not in every game and hard to count...
What do you mean by the situation becoming "dangerous"?

If you mean a dangerous attack, the situation is guaranteed to become dangerous before you've even made a profit. If you do have a little profit in the first few minutes and try to close some of it, which won't be much, a goal could be scored before you're closing trade gets matched.

Really, the best way to learn is to experiment with small stakes. You'll lose a few quid trying out ideas that don't work but you'll develop better ideas in the process.
onlywin
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:38 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:56 pm


What do you mean by the situation becoming "dangerous"?

If you mean a dangerous attack, the situation is guaranteed to become dangerous before you've even made a profit. If you do have a little profit in the first few minutes and try to close some of it, which won't be much, a goal could be scored before you're closing trade gets matched.
Dangerous score in live. Cause we can not bet every situtation without minus in prematch. Its mathematically unreal when there is no mistake.
For example we lose when the match finished 2:2 so 2:1 in live is dangerous situation for us. In this situation we should make bets in live to insure . And ideally, there should be enough amount in prematch bets so that the loss at 2:2 will zero or at least very small.
Its not necessary to watch matches, not mean it.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

onlywin wrote:
Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:12 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:56 pm


What do you mean by the situation becoming "dangerous"?

If you mean a dangerous attack, the situation is guaranteed to become dangerous before you've even made a profit. If you do have a little profit in the first few minutes and try to close some of it, which won't be much, a goal could be scored before you're closing trade gets matched.
Dangerous score in live. Cause we can not bet every situtation without minus in prematch. Its mathematically unreal when there is no mistake.
For example we lose when the match finished 2:2 so 2:1 in live is dangerous situation for us. In this situation we should make bets in live to insure . And ideally, there should be enough amount in prematch bets so that the loss at 2:2 will zero or at least very small.
Its not necessary to watch matches, not mean it.
Many people have tried that. Lay 2-2, wait until the scores 2-1 or 1-2, problem is, you've laid 2-2 at 18 and its now 4.5 so it's too late. You have to close for a loss.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I'd recommend looking at the thread below. A lot of knowledgable people on hear have shared their insight.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=15980
onlywin
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:38 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:15 pm


Many people have tried that. Lay 2-2, wait until the scores 2-1 or 1-2, problem is, you've laid 2-2 at 18 and its now 4.5 so it's too late. You have to close for a loss.
Yes, if you lay 2:2 before start and then try to insure in live when 2:1 , there will be big loss.
But i want to find combination of different markets( totals , HT/FT , correct score etc) to make those losses much smaller. And dont say that it's impossible. Someone plays like that and have profit every day but they dont tell nuances.

Score 2:2 is only example but can be completely different combinations of markets and bets,
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

onlywin wrote:
Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:30 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:15 pm


Many people have tried that. Lay 2-2, wait until the scores 2-1 or 1-2, problem is, you've laid 2-2 at 18 and its now 4.5 so it's too late. You have to close for a loss.
Yes, if you lay 2:2 before start and then try to insure in live when 2:1 , there will be big loss.
But i want to find combination of different markets( totals , HT/FT , correct score etc) to make those losses much smaller. And dont say that it's impossible. Someone plays like that and have profit every day but they dont tell nuances.
Placing a bet on a football match and then betting on another outcome, be it in the same market or a different one, reduces your chances of losing but also reduces your profit if you win. Eventually you could be in a situation where you have a 95% chance of winning 5% of your outlay so there's not much value, if any, in the strategy.

Good luck with persevering with it but it's not the route I'd want to take.
onlywin
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:38 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:39 pm

Placing a bet on a football match and then betting on another outcome, be it in the same market or a different one, reduces your chances of losing but also reduces your profit if you win. Eventually you could be in a situation where you have a 95% chance of winning 5% of your outlay so there's not much value, if any, in the strategy.

Good luck with persevering with it but it's not the route I'd want to take.
Yes ,i agree with you cause i thought like you earlier. That bookmakers line is composed so that all odds complement each other and do not give an advantage in every case.

But also i know now that some bettors have safe or high-valuable strategies and they dont analyze every football match( injures, motivation etc) They do it when only see at odds of the match and insure their risks using prematch and live
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24702
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

All markets are related. So a bet on a win market is a part bet on a correct score market which is also a bet on under / overs.

There would often be inefficiencies in the early years but Betfair bombed nearly all of them when the implemented cross market cross matching.

If you bet on a correct score market now your bet also appears on a over under and vice versa, ensuring both are perfectly efficient.
onlywin
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:38 pm

Ok , all of you can think that it is impossible to do what I say. But today,after some calculations, i found a kind of fork(using combination of bets) which give a big advantage over simple bet on this result.
I think those who know such combinations doesnt want to disclose them, simple
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

onlywin wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:23 pm
Ok , all of you can think that it is impossible to do what I say. But today,after some calculations, i found a kind of fork(using combination of bets) which give a big advantage over simple bet on this result.
I think those who know such combinations doesnt want to disclose them, simple
You posed the question and suggested that those who knew the answer were keeping it a secret. Now you've found an answer will you be sharing it?
Post Reply

Return to “Football trading”