VAR has changed the equation but not the only reason.
The delay is supposed to protect in-play punters by stopping their bets being matched by those with faster information after a goal, red card, etc. But now after a foul which is a very likely penalty but not given straight away, someone with those faster pics can sweep the market and match a bet - knowing that the penalty will likely be given - before the ones with delayed information have the chance to cancel. The bet it seems will stand sometimes especially if there is a long delay between the foul and the referee running to the screen. Also it seems pretty random whether they allow bets to stand in this scenario or not. And voiding in running causes a lot of problems for everyone and I imagine headache for Betfair.
Also it would be really good to be able to trade during a VAR review. And not just with VAR but in other scenarios. If you had backed England the other night, wouldn't it have been good to be able to trade / take some profit before the penalty was actually taken? Why deny everyone the chance to adjust their books as they see fit when something like this happens?
Also from looking at the markets, it seems very clear that those seeding the markets have access to fast pictures/data - you can see this from how quickly bets are cancelled when a team breaks forward or misses a free kick from a great position late on. So if they can cancel in these scenarios they can cancel for goals and red cards surely.
And football is not the only sport where a particular kind of event can move the market massively. Just look at cricket where a wicket or boundary late on in the match can move a team from massively odds on to odds against. Or tennis on a big break point/set point. Why special protections in football but not other sports?
I believe there used to be some football markets without suspensions many years ago but it was only for lower league/non-league matches etc.? Why not trial it for a big match, with no suspensions on all markets from whistle-to-whistle? Everyone responsible for their own positions and trade as they see fit? If necessary can make it 7 seconds instead of 5 (though the big players seem to manage with 5 seconds now)
Thoughts welcome!
Time to ditch suspensions on In-Play football?
Al - i think the above is a great suggestion. Maybe Euler can bend some ears when he next takes BF to task.Al55 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:49 pmVAR has changed the equation but not the only reason.
The delay is supposed to protect in-play punters by stopping their bets being matched by those with faster information after a goal, red card, etc. But now after a foul which is a very likely penalty but not given straight away, someone with those faster pics can sweep the market and match a bet - knowing that the penalty will likely be given - before the ones with delayed information have the chance to cancel. The bet it seems will stand sometimes especially if there is a long delay between the foul and the referee running to the screen. Also it seems pretty random whether they allow bets to stand in this scenario or not. And voiding in running causes a lot of problems for everyone and I imagine headache for Betfair.
Also it would be really good to be able to trade during a VAR review. And not just with VAR but in other scenarios. If you had backed England the other night, wouldn't it have been good to be able to trade / take some profit before the penalty was actually taken? Why deny everyone the chance to adjust their books as they see fit when something like this happens?
Also from looking at the markets, it seems very clear that those seeding the markets have access to fast pictures/data - you can see this from how quickly bets are cancelled when a team breaks forward or misses a free kick from a great position late on. So if they can cancel in these scenarios they can cancel for goals and red cards surely.
And football is not the only sport where a particular kind of event can move the market massively. Just look at cricket where a wicket or boundary late on in the match can move a team from massively odds on to odds against. Or tennis on a big break point/set point. Why special protections in football but not other sports?
I believe there used to be some football markets without suspensions many years ago but it was only for lower league/non-league matches etc.? Why not trial it for a big match, with no suspensions on all markets from whistle-to-whistle? Everyone responsible for their own positions and trade as they see fit? If necessary can make it 7 seconds instead of 5 (though the big players seem to manage with 5 seconds now)
Thoughts welcome!
The only issue i can see tho is that BF suspend based on unfolding events (viz a viz - having either live personnel at the event or some sort of proxy). The challenge therefore would be the adoption of a universal approach (irrespective of VAR) to even out the very scenario you allude to (ringers!!).
If i were still active in these markets, i would probably look at recording a time shifted view of the odds vs event outcome (data plus video) and see if there was an edge presented in looking at odds movement AHEAD of official outcome...
just my few tainted cents on the topic -but one that i feel is pretty relevant if you trade on mechanics.
I'd go along with that, or at least it's worth trialling. I'm sure it would lower my blood pressure and let me live 5 years longer.
People with fast pics cancel their bets when there's a high likelihood of a goal, manual traders can see the bets disappear off the ladder, the delay allows them to cancel their own bets before getting matched and botters can easily do the same.
In an ideal world, the market should be suspended over a potential penalty (I'm not too fussed about red cards, which means a suspension after every foul), but given Bumfairs sheer incompetents and inability to remember to unsuspend a market until another goal is scored, it would be better if they scrapped suspensions altogether.
People with fast pics cancel their bets when there's a high likelihood of a goal, manual traders can see the bets disappear off the ladder, the delay allows them to cancel their own bets before getting matched and botters can easily do the same.
In an ideal world, the market should be suspended over a potential penalty (I'm not too fussed about red cards, which means a suspension after every foul), but given Bumfairs sheer incompetents and inability to remember to unsuspend a market until another goal is scored, it would be better if they scrapped suspensions altogether.
yeah,, as i said (viz a viz - having either live personnel at the event or some sort of proxy)Derek27 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 13, 2022 11:26 pmI'd go along with that, or at least it's worth trialling. I'm sure it would lower my blood pressure and let me live 5 years longer.
People with fast pics cancel their bets when there's a high likelihood of a goal, manual traders can see the bets disappear off the ladder, the delay allows them to cancel their own bets before getting matched and botters can easily do the same.
In an ideal world, the market should be suspended over a potential penalty (I'm not too fussed about red cards, which means a suspension after every foul), but given Bumfairs sheer incompetents and inability to remember to unsuspend a market until another goal is scored, it would be better if they scrapped suspensions altogether.
not a trusted environment (BF's!
Are you sure about this? Given that people leave bets standing in the market in every other sport and seem to manage (even with a lower delay than 5 seconds in some sports), and given that people leave bets in the market now in football when they can be done by a VAR review or other things (e.g. dangerous free kicks) for which there are no suspensions?
And considering also that those who predominantly seed the markets in-play now clearly have access to fast data/pictures.
I wouldn't be so sure about your claim that nobody would leave bets standing. It's worth a try for a few matches anyway
The problem with this suggestion (apart from split liquidity) is that people will naturally gravitate towards the market they are used to. For example in cricket it is annoying that they void bets in a tied T20 or one-day game, (rather than using dead heat rules or paying on the winner of the super over); Some people complained so now they have a 'match odds including tie' market but very few people bother looking there, preferring just to click on the straightforward 'Match Odds' market.
Also are you going to have separate unmanaged and managed markets for all markets (e.g. 2 different correct score markets, 2 different 2.5 goals markets ...) - doesn't seem practical.
I would love to see them trial on the Boxing Day Premier League fixtures all markets in-play with no suspensions from whistle-to-whistle. Obviously all customers betting would need to receive an email and a popup warning beforehand (or display UNMANAGED in the market title). I reckon if they make the switch to unmanaged, after a few weeks people will wonder why it took them so long to make the change and baulk at the idea of going back to the old system!
Al55 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:10 pmAre you sure about this? Given that people leave bets standing in the market in every other sport and seem to manage (even with a lower delay than 5 seconds in some sports), and given that people leave bets in the market now in football when they can be done by a VAR review or other things (e.g. dangerous free kicks) for which there are no suspensions?
And considering also that those who predominantly seed the markets in-play now clearly have access to fast data/pictures.
I wouldn't be so sure about your claim that nobody would leave bets standing. It's worth a try for a few matches anyway
You need to just stop and think what you are suggesting----how can you have a thriving betting market when the people at the ground are seconds ahead of everyone else, even those you claim have fast pictures.
I'm sure that in the early days betting was without a timer but that soon changed.
You also claim football has special protection when compared to tennis and cricket.
Every bet I've tried to place today on those sports has been subject to a delay.
You shouldn't be done by a VAR review. You should inform them if you
think anything unfair has taken place.
That would dilute the liquidity for both markets.
leave lay bet on draw? What happens if it's 1-0 to the outsider and there is an equalizer.
Resubmitting bets with fill-or-kill only works if you are the fastest finger.
You'll be placing fill or kill bets thinking the score is 0--0 when it is 1--0.
The only time it would be safe to place bets would be during an injury. And even that could be risky because you wouldn't know exactly how far you are behind the actual play.
Is it 5seconds or 9?
I said "before a goal".JohnT wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:26 pmleave lay bet on draw? What happens if it's 1-0 to the outsider and there is an equalizer.
Resubmitting bets with fill-or-kill only works if you are the fastest finger.
You'll be placing fill or kill bets thinking the score is 0--0 when it is 1--0.
The only time it would be safe to place bets would be during an injury. And even that could be risky because you wouldn't know exactly how far you are behind the actual play.
Is it 5seconds or 9?
Ultimately, traders are responsible for placing, cancelling and managing their bets. You can't rely on Betfair cancelling them every time there's a potential goal, penalty or VAR. Many people use automation rather than fingers but you can still trade a match with slower pics. You could use fill-or-kill placing bets well away from the penalty area or take a longer-term view of the game, match a bet with the intention of closing in 5-10 minutes.
The in-play delay is generally 5 seconds but it varies from league to league and depends on TV/radio broadcasts. It can be 9, 13 or even 15 seconds!